Exelon (EXC)
Utilities · $47.3B market cap · SEC CIK 0001109357
ahead of 8% of the S&P 500 · #29 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 10, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.70 in earnings per share.
52-week range $39.73 to $50.65. 10% below its 52-week high and 15% above its low.
The case for EXC
- Pays a 3.7% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.22).
The case against
- Burned $2.3B of free cash in FY2025.
- Long-term debt of $49.4B would take 8 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 2.5 times.
- Revenue has shrunk 6.0% a year over five years.
- Earnings per share fell 8.0%.
- Value is weak (42/100): 17.9× earnings against a fair 17× for its growth, 1.8× sales, −4.8% free-cash yield.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 42 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 17 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 29 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 51 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 49 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +6.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | −6.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $24.3B (+5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$2.3B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −9% |
| Of profit | −82% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 40% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 20% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 10.7% → 11.4% → 10.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $626M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $49.4B |
| Net debt | $48.8B |
| Years to repay | 7.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 17.9× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 17× |
| Forward P/E | 15.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.0× |
At 17.9× earnings it trades close to the 17× that 2% a year of growth plus a 3.7% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Exelon's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $24.3B | $23.0B | $21.7B | $19.1B | $17.9B |
| Change on the year | +5% | +6% | +14% | +6% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$2.3B | −$1.5B | −$2.7B | −$2.3B | −$5.0B |
| Of revenue | −9% | −7% | −12% | −12% | −28% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 21.2% | 18.8% | 18.5% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| Net margin | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $626M | $357M | $445M | $407M | $672M |
| Long-term debt | $49.4B | $44.7B | $41.3B | $35.3B | $30.7B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$48.8B | −$44.3B | −$40.8B | −$34.9B | −$30.1B |
What Exelon says it does
7 General 7 Utility Operations 8 Exelon's Strategy and Outlook 11 Employees 12 Environmental Matters and Regulation 13 Executive Officers of the Registrants
Risk factors EXC lists in its 10-K
- The Registrants' businesses are highly regulated and electric and gas revenue and earnings could be negatively affected by legislative and/or regulatory actions (All Registrants)
- The Registrants could incur substantial costs to fulfill their obligations related to environmental and other matters (All Registrants)
- The Registrants could be negatively affected by challenges to tax positions taken, tax law changes, and the inherent difficulty in quantifying potential tax effects of business decisions. (All Registrants)
- Legal proceedings could result in a negative outcome, which the Registrants cannot predict (All Registrants)
- The Registrants could be subject to adverse publicity and reputational risks, which make them vulnerable to negative customer perception and could lead to increased regulatory oversight or other consequences (All Registrants)
- The Utility Registrants' operating costs are affected by their ability to maintain the availability and reliability of their delivery and operational systems (All Registrants)
- The Registrants are subject to physical security and cybersecurity risks (All Registrants)
- The Registrants’ electricity and natural gas operations are inherently hazardous and involve significant risks to employees, contractors, customers, and the general public (All Registrants)
- The Registrants are subject to risks associated with climate change (All Registrants)
- The Registrants' performance could be negatively affected if they fail to attract and retain an appropriately qualified workforce (All Registrants)
- The Registrants’ performance could be negatively affected by poor performance of third-party contractors that perform periodic or ongoing work (All Registrants)
- The Registrants could make acquisitions or investments in new business initiatives and new markets, which may not be successful or achieve the intended financial results (All Registrants)
- The Registrants are potentially affected by emerging technologies that could over time affect or transform the energy industry (All Registrants)
- The Registrants could be negatively affected by unstable capital and credit markets (All Registrants)
- amounts of collateral that could affect its liquidity and could experience higher borrowing costs (All Registrants)
- The impacts of significant economic downturns or increases in customer rates, could lead to decreased volumes delivered and increased expense for uncollectible customer balances (All Registrants)
- The Registrants could be negatively affected by the impacts of weather (All Registrants)
- Long-lived assets, goodwill, and other assets could become impaired (All Registrants)
- The Registrants could incur substantial costs in the event of non-performance by third-parties under indemnification agreements, or when the Registrants have guaranteed their performance (All Registrants)