Duke Energy (DUK)
Utilities · $99.9B market cap · SEC CIK 0001326160
ahead of 74% of the S&P 500 · #5 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 8, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.48 in earnings per share.
52-week range $112.40 to $134.49. 4% below its 52-week high and 15% above its low.
The case for DUK
- Pays a 4.5% dividend while you wait.
- Reasonably priced for its growth: 18.5× earnings, where 8%+ a year of growth plus a 4.5% dividend would justify about 27×.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.29).
The case against
- Burned $1.7B of free cash in FY2025.
- Long-term debt of $80.1B would take 6 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 2.6 times.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.68).
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 71 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 65 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 47 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 63 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 68 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +6.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +6.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $32.2B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$1.7B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −5% |
| Of profit | −34% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 46% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 29% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 14.9% → 15.4% → 15.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $245M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $80.1B |
| Net debt | $79.9B |
| Years to repay | 6.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 18.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 27× |
| Forward P/E | 18.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.8× |
At 18.5× earnings it trades below the 27× that 8%+ a year of growth plus a 4.5% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Duke Energy's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $32.2B | $30.4B | $29.1B | $28.8B | $24.6B |
| Change on the year | +6% | +4% | +1% | +17% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$1.7B | $48.0M | −$2.7B | −$5.4B | −$1.4B |
| Of revenue | −5% | 0% | −9% | −19% | −6% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 26.8% | 26.1% | 24.3% | 20.9% | 22.3% |
| Net margin | 15.4% | 14.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 15.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $245M | $314M | $253M | $409M | $341M |
| Long-term debt | $80.1B | $76.3B | $72.5B | $65.9B | $60.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$79.9B | −$76.0B | −$72.2B | −$65.5B | −$60.1B |
What Duke Energy says it does
DUKE ENERGY General Duke Energy was incorporated on May 3, 2005, and is an energy company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, subject to regulation by the FERC and other regulatory agencies listed below. Duke Energy operates in the U.S. primarily through its direct and indirect subsidiaries. Certain Duke Energy subsidiaries are also Subsidiary Registrants, including Duke Energy Carolinas, Progress Energy, Duke Energy Progress, Duke Energy Florida, Duke Energy Ohio, Duke Energy Indiana and Piedmont. Operations in Kentucky are conducted through Duke Energy Ohio's wholly owned subsidiary, Duke Energy Kentucky. References herein to Duke Energy Ohio include Duke Energy Ohio and its subsidiaries, unless otherwise noted. When discussing Duke Energy’s consolidated financial information, it necessarily includes the results of its separate Subsidiary Registrants, which along with Duke Energy, are collectively referred to as the Duke…
Risk factors DUK lists in its 10-K
- Increased competition and unrecovered costs could adversely affect the Duke Energy Registrants’ results of operations, financial position or cash flows and their utility businesses
- The Duke Energy Registrants' operations, capital expenditures and financial results may be affected by regulatory changes related to the impacts of global climate change
- The Duke Energy Registrants’ results of operations may be negatively affected by overall market, economic and other conditions that are beyond their control
- Natural disasters or operational accidents may adversely affect the Duke Energy Registrants’ operating results, financial position or cash flows
- The Duke Energy Registrants' future results of operations may be impacted by changing or conflicting expectations and demands, particularly regarding environmental, social and governance concerns
- The Duke Energy Registrants’ sales may decrease if they are unable to gain adequate, reliable and affordable access to transmission assets
- The availability of adequate interstate pipeline transportation capacity and natural gas supply may decrease
- Fluctuations in commodity prices or availability may adversely affect various aspects of the Duke Energy Registrants’ operations as well as their results of operations, financial position and cash flows
- Cyberattacks and data security breaches could adversely affect the Duke Energy Registrants' businesses
- The Duke Energy Registrants’ operations have been and may be affected by pandemic health events in ways listed below and in ways the Duke Energy Registrants cannot predict at this time
- Duke Energy Ohio’s and Duke Energy Indiana’s membership in an RTO presents risks that could have a material adverse effect on their results of operations, financial position and cash flows
- The Duke Energy Registrants have incurred, and may incur additional costs or delays in the construction of new plants or facilities and may not be able to recover their investments in whole or in part
- The Duke Energy Registrants are subject to risks associated with their ability to obtain adequate insurance at acceptable costs
- Our business could be negatively affected as a result of actions of activist shareholders
- Failure to complete strategic transactions could adversely affect the Duke Energy Registrants’ financial condition, credit profile and ability to execute their business strategy
- Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Progress and Duke Energy Florida may incur substantial costs and liabilities due to their ownership and operation of nuclear generating facilities
- Non-compliance with debt covenants or conditions could adversely affect the Duke Energy Registrants’ ability to execute future borrowings
- Market performance and other changes may decrease the value of the NDTF investments of Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Progress and Duke Energy Florida, which then could require significant additional funding
- Poor investment performance of the Duke Energy pension plan holdings and other factors impacting pension plan costs could unfavorably impact the Duke Energy Registrants’ liquidity and results of operations
- Duke Energy is a holding company and depends on the cash flows from its subsidiaries to meet its financial obligations
- The failure of Duke Energy information technology systems, or the failure to enhance existing information technology systems and implement new technology, could adversely affect the Duke Energy Registrants’ businesses
- Potential terrorist activities, or military or other actions, could adversely affect the Duke Energy Registrants’ businesses
- Failure to attract and retain an appropriately qualified workforce could unfavorably impact the Duke Energy Registrants’ results of operations