Sempra (SRE)
Utilities · $51.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0001032208
ahead of 7% of the S&P 500 · #30 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 24, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.21 in earnings per share.
52-week range $76.21 to $101.04. 22% below its 52-week high and 3% above its low.
The case for SRE
- 26% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Earnings per share up 40.7%.
- Pays a 3.2% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.54).
The case against
- Burned $6.0B of free cash in FY2025.
- Pricey for its growth: 16.8× earnings, where 0% a year of growth plus a 3.2% dividend would justify about 13×.
- Long-term debt of $29.0B would take 6 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 1.9 times.
- Revenue was flat on the year (−0.7%).
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 22% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 33 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 24 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 55 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 24 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 38 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, flat
| Last 12 months | −0.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +2.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.7B (+4%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$6.0B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −44% |
| Of profit | −329% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | n/a |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 31% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 21.7% → 13.4% → 25.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $29.0M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $29.0B |
| Net debt | $28.9B |
| Years to repay | 6.3 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 16.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 13× |
| Forward P/E | 15.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.6× |
At 16.8× earnings it trades above the 13× that 0% a year of growth plus a 3.2% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Sempra's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $13.7B | $13.2B | $16.7B | $14.4B | $12.9B |
| Change on the year | +4% | −21% | +16% | +12% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$6.0B | −$3.3B | −$2.2B | −$4.2B | −$1.2B |
| Of revenue | −44% | −25% | −13% | −29% | −9% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 13.4% | 21.7% | 18.4% | 14.8% | 10.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $29.0M | $1.6B | $236M | $370M | $559M |
| Long-term debt | $29.0B | $31.6B | $27.8B | $24.5B | $21.1B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$28.9B | −$30.0B | −$27.5B | −$24.2B | −$20.5B |
What Sempra says it does
OVERVIEW We are a holding company whose principal businesses are regulated utilities in California and Texas. Our businesses invest in and operate electric and gas utilities and other energy infrastructure that provide energy services to customers. Sempra was formed in 1998 through a business combination of Enova Corporation and Pacific Enterprises, the holding companies of our regulated public utilities in California: SDG&E, which began operations in 1881, and SoCalGas, which began operations in 1867. We have since expanded our regulated public utility presence into Texas through our 80.25% interest in Oncor and 50% interest in Sharyland Utilities. Sempra Infrastructure’s assets include investments in the U.S. and Mexico with a focus on LNG, energy networks and low carbon solutions. Business Strategy Sempra’s mission is to build America’s leading utility growth business. We are primarily focused on the largest economies in the U.S.,…
Risk factors SRE lists in its 10-K
- Sempra’s ability to pay dividends and meet its obligations largely depends on the performance of its subsidiaries and entities accounted for as equity method investments
- Our investments in businesses we do not control expose us to risks
- Our business could be negatively affected by activist shareholders
- Successfully executing our five-year capital expenditures plan is subject to risks
- Settlement provisions contained in forward sale agreements in connection with our ATM program subject us to certain risks
- The economic interest, voting rights and market value of our outstanding common stock may be adversely affected by any additional equity securities we may issue
- Our infrastructure and its supporting systems subject us to risks
- We face risks related to severe weather, natural disasters, physical attacks and other similar events
- We face evolving cybersecurity, technology resiliency and data security and governance risks, including with respect to increasing use of artificial intelligence
- Cybersecurity and Technology Resiliency
- Conditions in global markets, including the impact of enacted and proposed tariffs and other trade actions, may materially and adversely affect us
- We actively seek opportunities in the market through acquisitions, partnerships, JVs and divestitures, and we may be unable to complete or realize the anticipated benefits from such transactions
- We face risks related to activities and projects intended to advance new energy-related technologies
- The operation of our facilities depends on good labor relations with our employees and our ability to attract and retain qualified personnel
- Our businesses depend on the performance of counterparties
- Our debt service obligations expose us to risks
- The availability and cost of financing could be negatively affected by market and economic conditions and other factors
- We do not fully hedge our assets or contract positions against changes in commodity prices or interest rates, and for positions that are hedged, our hedging mechanisms may not mitigate our risk or reduce our losses as
- Risk management procedures may not prevent or mitigate losses
- An impairment of our long-lived assets could result in a material charge to earnings
- Market performance, significant transactions or changes in other assumptions could require unplanned contributions to pension and PBOP plans
- We face risks related to environmental and climate change regulation and the costs of the energy transition
- Environmental and Climate Change Regulation
- We are subject to complex tax and accounting requirements that expose us to risks
- We may be negatively impacted by the outcome of litigation or other proceedings in which we are involved
- Wildfires in California pose risks to Sempra, SDG&E and SoCalGas
- More and Increasingly Severe Wildfires
- Cost Recovery Through Insurance or Rates
- Regulatory Actions Related to Wildfire Mitigation Efforts
- The electricity industry is undergoing significant change
- Natural gas continues to be the subject of political and public debate, including a desire by some to reduce or eliminate reliance on natural gas as an energy source
- SDG&E may incur significant costs and liabilities from its partial ownership of a nuclear facility being decommissioned
- SDG&E and SoCalGas are subject to extensive regulation
- Regulatory and Legislative Changes and Influence of Other Organizations
- Failure by the CPUC to adequately reform SDG&E’s electric rate structure could negatively impact Sempra and SDG&E
- Ring-fencing measures, governance mechanisms and commitments limit our ability to influence the management, policies and operations of Oncor
- Changes in the regulation of Oncor or the regulation or operation of the electric utility industry and/or ERCOT market could negatively affect Oncor
- Oncor’s capital expenditures plan may not be executed as planned or achieve its business objectives
- Oncor’s capital expenditures plan will result in significant liquidity needs that may necessitate additional investments
- Sempra could incur substantial tax liabilities if EFH’s 2016 spin-off of Vistra is deemed to be taxable
- We face risks from increasing competition
- We may not be able to secure, maintain, extend or replace long-term supply, sales or capacity agreements
- We rely on transportation assets and services, much of which we do not control, to deliver natural gas and electricity
- Fixed-price long-term contracts for services or commodities expose our businesses to risks
- Our international businesses and operations expose us to foreign currency exchange rate and inflation risks
- Our businesses are exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices
- If the CRNCI becomes redeemable, SI Partners may not have sufficient funds available to fulfill its obligation of redemption
- Our international businesses and operations expose us to increased legal, regulatory, tax, economic, geopolitical, credit and management oversight risks and challenges
- Mexican Government Influence on Economic and Energy Matters
- U.S. and Foreign Laws and International Relations
- We face risks related to unsettled property rights and titles in Mexico
- We may be unable to complete or realize the anticipated benefits from our planned sales of certain of our assets and businesses as part of our capital recycling program