Xcel Energy (XEL)
Utilities · $51.3B market cap · SEC CIK 0000072903
ahead of 30% of the S&P 500 · #21 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.84 in earnings per share.
52-week range $68.72 to $84.23. 5% below its 52-week high and 17% above its low.
The case for XEL
- Earnings per share up 30.9%.
- Pays a 2.9% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.34).
The case against
- Burned $6.8B of free cash in FY2025.
- Long-term debt of $31.8B would take 8 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 2.3 times.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.69).
- Free-cash-flow yield of −13.3% is lower than 96% of Utilities companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 45 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 48 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 49 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 59 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 46 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +4.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +5.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $14.7B (+9%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$6.8B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −47% |
| Of profit | −338% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 40% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 22% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 14.4% → 13.8% → 18.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $274M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $31.8B |
| Net debt | $31.6B |
| Years to repay | 7.8 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 19.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 19× |
| Forward P/E | 17.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.6× |
At 19.2× earnings it trades close to the 19× that 5% a year of growth plus a 2.9% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Xcel Energy's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $14.7B | $13.4B | $14.2B | $15.3B | $13.4B |
| Change on the year | +9% | −5% | −7% | +14% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$6.8B | −$2.7B | −$527M | −$706M | −$2.1B |
| Of revenue | −47% | −20% | −4% | −5% | −15% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 17.6% | 17.8% | 17.5% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| Net margin | 13.8% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 11.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $274M | $179M | $129M | $111M | $166M |
| Long-term debt | $31.8B | $27.3B | $24.9B | $22.8B | $21.8B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$31.6B | −$27.1B | −$24.8B | −$22.7B | −$21.6B |
Risk factors XEL lists in its 10-K
- Xcel Energy Inc.’s Subsidiaries and Affiliates (current and former)
- Federal and State Regulatory Agencies
- Electric, Purchased Gas and Resource Adjustment Clauses
- Cultivate an Inclusive, Best-in-Class Workforce
- Deliver a Competitive Total Return to Investors
- Leading the Clean Energy Transition
- Electrification of the Transportation Sector
- Electric Operations (percentage of total)
- Owned and Purchased Energy Generation — 2025