Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG)
Utilities · $37.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0000788784
ahead of 16% of the S&P 500 · #25 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 24, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.81 in earnings per share.
52-week range $66.15 to $87.63. 15% below its 52-week high and 13% above its low.
The case for PEG
- Pays a 3.5% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.48).
The case against
- Long-term debt of $21.7B would take 7 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Earnings per share fell 15.1%.
- Only 1% of FY2025's $2.1B profit arrived as free cash.
- Free cash flow is only 0.1% of its market value, a thin cash return for the price.
- The price trend is weak (41/100): −9.9% over a year, +0.6% over three months, 15% below its 52-week high.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 22 points over the past year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 39 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 28 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 40 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 41 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 70 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +5.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.8% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.2B (+18%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Less than its profits suggest
| FY2025 free cash flow | $26.0M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 0% |
| Of profit | 1% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | n/a |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 22% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 17.2% → 17.3% → 14.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $132M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $21.7B |
| Net debt | $21.5B |
| Years to repay | 6.6 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 21.1× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 19× |
| Forward P/E | 16.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.6× |
At 21.1× earnings it trades close to the 19× that 4% a year of growth plus a 3.5% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Public Service Enterprise Group's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $12.2B | $10.3B | $11.2B | $11.2B | $10.3B |
| Change on the year | +18% | −8% | 0% | +9% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $26.0M | −$1.2B | $481M | −$1.4B | −$983M |
| Of revenue | 0% | −12% | 4% | −12% | −10% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 24.5% | 22.9% | 32.8% | 12.3% | −8.3% |
| Net margin | 17.3% | 17.2% | 22.8% | 9.2% | −6.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $132M | $125M | $54.0M | $465M | $818M |
| Long-term debt | $21.7B | $19.0B | $17.8B | $16.5B | $15.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$21.5B | −$18.8B | −$17.7B | −$16.0B | −$14.4B |
What Public Service Enterprise Group says it does
We were incorporated under the laws of the State of New Jersey in 1985 and our principal executive offices are located at 80 Park Plaza, Newark, New Jersey 07102. We are a public utility holding company that, acting through our wholly owned subsidiaries, is a predominantly regulated electric and gas utility and a nuclear generation business. Our business plan focuses on achieving growth by allocating capital primarily toward regulated investments in an effort to continue to improve the sustainability and predictability of our business and realizing the value of the consistent and reliable carbon-free generation from our nuclear units. As a holding company, our profitability depends on our subsidiaries’ operating results. We principally conduct our business through two direct wholly owned subsidiaries, PSE&G and PSEG Power LLC (PSEG Power), described below, each of which also has its principal executive offices at 80 Park Plaza, Newark,…
Risk factors PEG lists in its 10-K
- Inability to successfully develop, obtain regulatory approval for, or construct T&D, and our nuclear generation projects could adversely impact our businesses
- Any inability to recover the carrying amount of our long-lived assets could result in future impairment charges which could have a material adverse impact on our financial condition and results of operations
- Disruptions or cost increases in our supply chain, including labor shortages, could materially impact our business
- Inability to maintain sufficient liquidity in the amounts and at the times needed or access sufficient capital at reasonable rates or on commercially reasonable terms could adversely impact our business
- Cybersecurity attacks, data breaches, or intrusions or other disruptions to our IT, operational or other systems could adversely impact our businesses
- Failure to attract and retain a qualified workforce could have an adverse effect on our business
- Inflation, including increases in the costs of equipment and materials, fuel, services and labor could adversely affect our operating results
- Covenants in our debt instruments and credit agreements may adversely affect our business
- If we are unable to enter into or extend certain significant contracts, this may negatively affect our financial condition and operating results
- Artificial Intelligence is an emerging area of technology that has the potential to impact various aspects of our business operations and customer interactions
- Fluctuations in the wholesale power and natural gas markets could negatively affect our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
- We may be unable to obtain an adequate nuclear fuel supply in the future
- The introduction or expansion of technologies related to energy generation, distribution and consumption and changes in customer usage patterns could adversely impact us
- We are subject to third-party credit risk relating to our sale of nuclear generation output
- There may be periods when PSEG Power generation may not operate and/or may not be able to meet its commitments under forward sale obligations and PJM rules at a reasonable cost or at all
- Generation activities at the Peach Bottom plants present risks similar to those to which nuclear generation plants that we operate are subject
- PSE&G’s revenues, earnings and results of operations are dependent upon state laws and regulations that affect distribution and related activities
- PSE&G’s proposed investment projects or programs may not be fully approved by regulators and actual capital investment by PSE&G may be lower than planned, which would cause lower than anticipated rate base
- We are subject to comprehensive federal regulation that affects, or may affect, our businesses
- Recovery of wholesale transmission rates
- MBR Authority and Other Regulatory Approvals
- Oversight by the CFTC relating to derivative transactions
- The markets, and/or PTC may not provide sufficient financial support for our New Jersey nuclear plants which could result in the retirement of all of these nuclear plants
- We may be adversely affected by changes in energy regulatory policies, including energy and capacity market design rules and developments affecting transmission
- Our ownership and operation of nuclear power plants involve regulatory risks as well as financial, environmental and health and safety risks
- Storage and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel
- We may not receive necessary licenses, permits and siting approvals in a timely manner or at all, which could adversely impact our business and results of operations