AES Corporation (AES)
Utilities · $10.7B market cap · SEC CIK 0000874761
ahead of 49% of the S&P 500 · #14 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 24, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.59 in earnings per share.
52-week range $13.28 to $17.65. 15% below its 52-week high and 12% above its low.
The case for AES
- Cheap for its growth: 6.0× earnings, where 8%+ a year of growth plus a 3.9% dividend would justify about 26×.
- Revenue growing 12.3% year over year.
- Earnings per share up 55.4%.
- Pays a 3.9% dividend while you wait.
- Price/sales of 0.8× is lower than 97% of Utilities companies.
The case against
- Burned $1.6B of free cash in FY2025.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 1.1 times.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.86).
- Free-cash-flow yield of −15.2% is lower than 100% of Utilities companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 87 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 79 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 27 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 48 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 30 |
- Equity is a sliver of assets, so return on assets stands in for return on equity, and price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +12.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.8% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.2B (0%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$1.6B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −13% |
| Of profit | −178% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 21% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 16% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 13.7% → 7.4% → 13.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched: little equity under a lot of assets
| Cash | $1.4B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 6.0× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 26× |
| Forward P/E | 6.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.9× |
At 6.0× earnings it trades well below the 26× that 8%+ a year of growth plus a 3.9% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from AES Corporation's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $12.2B | $12.3B | $12.7B | $12.6B | $11.1B |
| Change on the year | 0% | −3% | 0% | +13% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$1.6B | −$4.6B | −$4.7B | −$1.8B | −$214M |
| Of revenue | −13% | −38% | −37% | −15% | −2% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 18.1% | 18.8% | 19.8% | 20.2% | 24.3% |
| Net margin | 7.4% | 13.7% | 2.0% | −4.3% | −3.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $943M |
Filings
The text of this 10-K could not be read automatically. The original is linked below.