Blackstone (BX)
Financials · $151B market cap · SEC CIK 0001393818
ahead of 52% of the S&P 500 · #42 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Jan 27, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.78 in earnings per share.
52-week range $101.73 to $165.14. 26% below its 52-week high and 20% above its low.
The case for BX
- Revenue up 22.1% on the year.
- Earns 41% back on shareholder equity.
- 22% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Earnings per share up 28.7%.
- Pays a 3.1% dividend while you wait.
- Has compounded revenue at 18.8% a year over five years.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 42.5× earnings, where 10%+ a year of growth plus a 3.1% dividend would justify about 28×.
- Swings harder than the market (beta 1.59).
- Dividend takes 181% of earnings, leaving little cushion.
- The price trend is weak (28/100): −16.7% over a year, −12.9% over three months, 26% below its 52-week high.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 26 points over the past year.
- Price/sales of 9.4× is higher than 92% of Financials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 31 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 87 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 86 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 28 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 35 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +22.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +18.8% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $14.5B (+9%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 83% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 48% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 21.0% → 20.9% → 22.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $2.6B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $12.6B |
| Net debt | $9.9B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 42.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 28× |
| Forward P/E | 16.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 21.2× |
At 42.5× earnings it trades above the 28× that 10%+ a year of growth plus a 3.1% dividend would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Blackstone's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $14.5B | $13.2B | $8.0B | $8.5B | $22.6B |
| Change on the year | +9% | +65% | −6% | −62% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $4.5B | $3.4B | $3.8B | $6.1B | $3.9B |
| Of revenue | 31% | 26% | 48% | 72% | 17% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 20.9% | 21.0% | 17.3% | 20.5% | 25.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $2.6B | $2.0B | $3.0B | $4.3B | $2.1B |
| Long-term debt | $12.6B | $11.5B | $11.6B | $12.5B | $7.9B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$9.9B | −$9.5B | −$8.7B | −$8.2B | −$5.7B |
What Blackstone says it does
— Fee Structure/Incentive Arrangements.” The following discussion is intended to provide supplemental information about how the application of revenue recognition principles impact our financial results, and management’s process for implementing those principles including areas of significant judgment. Management and Advisory Fees, Net — Blackstone earns base management fees from its customers at a fixed percentage of a calculation base. The range of management fee rates and the calculation base from which they are earned, generally, are as follows: For vehicles within the Real Estate segment: • 0.35% to 1.50% of committed capital or invested capital during the investment period, invested capital subsequent to the investment period, or gross asset value for certain drawdown vehicles and co-investment vehicles, • 0.40% to 1.25% of net asset value for certain separately managed accounts, perpetual capital vehicles, drawdown vehicles, and…
Risk factors BX lists in its 10-K
- Investment Process and Risk Management
- Structure and Operation of Our Investment Vehicles
- Fee Structure/Incentive Arrangements
- Capital Invested In and Alongside Our Investment Funds
- Talent Acquisition, Development and Retention
- Compensation, Benefits and Wellness
- Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier
- Available Information, Website and Social Media Disclosure
- A decline in the pace or size of investments made by our funds may adversely affect our revenues
- Adverse economic and market conditions may adversely affect the amount of cash generated by our businesses, the value of our principal investments, and in turn, our ability to pay dividends to our stockholders
- The asset management business is intensely competitive
- We are increasingly undertaking business initiatives to increase the number and type of investment products we offer to individual investors, which could expose us to new and greater levels of risk
- Rapidly developing and changing global data security and privacy laws and regulations could increase compliance costs and subject us to enforcement risks and reputational damage
- Extensive regulation of our businesses affects our activities and creates the potential for significant liabilities and penalties. The possibility of increased regulatory focus could result in additional burdens on our business
- Climate change, climate and sustainability-related
- Financial regulatory changes in the United States could adversely affect our business
- Trade negotiations and related government actions may create regulatory uncertainty for our funds’ portfolio companies and our investment strategies and adversely affect the profitability of our funds’ portfolio companies
- Our provision of products and services to insurance companies subjects us to a variety of risks and uncertainties
- We rely on complex exemptions from statutes in conducting our asset management activities
- Complex regulatory regimes and potential regulatory changes in jurisdictions outside the United States could adversely affect our business
- We are subject to substantial risk of litigation and regulatory proceedings and may face significant liabilities and damage to our reputation as a result of allegations of improper conduct and negative publicity
- Our equity investments and some of our debt investments rank junior to investments made by others, exposing us to a greater risk of losing our fund’s investment
- The historical returns attributable to our funds should not be considered as indicative of the future results of our funds or of our future results or of any returns expected on an investment in common stock
- Certain policies and procedures implemented to mitigate potential conflicts of interest and address certain regulatory requirements may reduce the synergies across our various businesses
- Our failure to deal appropriately with conflicts of interest in our asset management business could damage our reputation and adversely affect our businesses
- Conflicts of interest may arise in our allocation of co-investment
- Our use of borrowings to finance our business exposes us to risks
- Dependence on significant leverage in investments by our funds could adversely affect our ability to achieve attractive rates of return on those investments
- The due diligence process that we undertake in connection with investments by our funds may not reveal all facts and issues that may be relevant in connection with an investment
- We may be unable to consummate or successfully integrate development opportunities, acquisitions or joint ventures that we pursue
- We and our affiliates have reported in the past and may be required to report in the future specified dealings or transactions involving Iran or other sanctioned individuals or entities
- Our asset management activities involve investments in relatively illiquid assets, and we may fail to realize any profits from these activities for a considerable period of time
- We make investments in companies that are based outside of the United States, which may expose us to additional risks not typically associated with investing in companies that are based in the United States
- We may not have sufficient cash to pay back “clawback” obligations if and when they are triggered under the governing agreements with our investors
- Risk management activities may adversely affect the return on our funds’ investments
- Investments by our funds in the power and energy industries involve various operational, construction, regulatory and market risks
- Our funds’ investments in real estate and infrastructure assets, including digital infrastructure, may expose us to increased risks that are inherent in the ownership of such assets
- Our funds’ investments in the life sciences industry may expose us to increased risks
- Hedge fund investments are subject to numerous additional risks
- We are reliant on third-party service providers for certain aspects of our business, and are subject to risks in using prime brokers, custodians, counterparties, administrators and other agents
- Underwriting activities by our capital markets services business expose us to risks
- We are a controlled company and as a result qualify for some exceptions from certain corporate governance and other requirements of the New York Stock Exchange
- Potential conflicts of interest may arise among the Series II Preferred Stockholder and the holders of our common stock
- The Series II Preferred Stockholder will not be liable to Blackstone or holders of our common stock for any acts or omissions unless there has been a final and non-appealable
- The Series II Preferred Stockholder may transfer its interest in the sole share of Series II preferred stock which could materially alter our operations
- We are required to pay our senior managing directors for most of the benefits relating to any additional tax depreciation or amortization deductions we may claim as a result of the tax basis step-up
- If Blackstone Inc. were deemed an “investment company” under the 1940 Act, applicable restrictions could make it impractical for us to continue our business as contemplated and could have a material adverse effect on our business
- Other anti-takeover provisions in our charter documents could delay or prevent a change in control
- The price of our common stock may decline due to the large number of shares of common stock eligible for future sale and for exchange