Carrier Global (CARR)
Industrials · $43.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0001783180
ahead of 1% of the S&P 500 · #78 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.59 in earnings per share.
52-week range $50.24 to $76.76. 31% below its 52-week high and 6% above its low.
The case for CARR
- Pays a modest 1.4% dividend.
The case against
- Losing money over the last year: net margin −7.9%, return on equity −14%.
- Expensive for its growth: 29.2× earnings, where 1% a year of growth plus a 1.4% dividend would justify about 11×.
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 31% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 1.00).
- Growth is weak (25/100): revenue +3.3%, +4.5% a year over five years.
- Long-term debt of $11.4B against $1.6B of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 17 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 25 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 14 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 23 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 43 |
- The P/E (29.2×) says it made money over the last year but its net margin (−7.9%) says it lost money, so the P/E is not counted in its favour.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +3.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $21.7B (−3%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 10% |
| Of profit | 143% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 25% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | −5% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 24.9% → 6.8% → −7.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $1.6B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $11.4B |
| Net debt | $9.8B |
| Years to repay | 4.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 29.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 11× |
| P/FCF | 20.4× |
| Forward P/E | 16.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 275.7× |
At 29.2× earnings it trades well above the 11× that 1% a year of growth plus a 1.4% dividend would justify. At 20.4× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Carrier Global's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $21.7B | $22.5B | $19.0B | $17.3B | $20.6B |
| Change on the year | −3% | +19% | +10% | −16% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.1B | $44.0M | $2.2B | $1.4B | $1.9B |
| Of revenue | 10% | 0% | 11% | 8% | 9% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 10.0% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 23.0% | 12.8% |
| Net margin | 6.8% | 24.9% | 7.1% | 20.4% | 8.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.6B | $4.0B | $9.9B | $3.3B | $3.0B |
| Long-term debt | $11.4B | $11.0B | $14.2B | $8.7B | $9.5B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$9.8B | −$7.1B | −$4.4B | −$5.4B | −$6.5B |
What Carrier Global says it does
Carrier Global Corporation ("we" or "our" or the "Company") is a global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, focused on providing differentiated, digitally enabled lifecycle solutions to our customers. Our portfolio includes industry-leading brands such as Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, Automated Logic and Carrier Transicold, among others, that offer innovative heating, cooling and cold chain solutions to enhance the lives we live and the world we share. We also provide a broad array of related building services, including audit, design, installation, system integration, repair, maintenance and monitoring. Through our performance-driven culture, we anticipate creating long-term shareowner value by investing strategically to strengthen our product position in homes, buildings and across the cold chain to drive profitable growth. We believe our business segments are well positioned to benefit from favorable secular trends,…
Risk factors CARR lists in its 10-K
- Risks associated with our international operations could adversely affect our competitive position, results of operations, cash flows or financial condition
- We are party to joint ventures and other strategic relationships, which may not be successful and may expose us to unique risks and restrictions
- Risks associated with climate events, government regulations and incentives associated with climate events and mitigation efforts could adversely affect our business
- Demand for our HVAC products and services is influenced by weather conditions and seasonality
- Cybersecurity incidents could disrupt business operations, result in the loss of critical and confidential information, and adversely impact our reputation and results of operations
- We incurred debt obligations, and we may incur additional debt in the future, which could adversely affect our business and profitability and our ability to meet other obligations
- We design, manufacture and service products that incorporate advanced technologies. The introduction of new products and technologies involves risks, and we may not realize the degree or timing of benefits initially anticipated
- We operate in a competitive environment and our profitability and competitive position depend on our ability to accurately estimate the costs and timing of providing our products and services
- Customers and others may take disruptive actions
- Labor matters may impact our business
- Our defined benefit pension plans are subject to financial market risks that could adversely affect our results
- We may not realize expected benefits from our cost reduction and restructuring efforts, and our profitability or our business otherwise might be adversely affected
- Failure to achieve and maintain a high level of product and service quality could damage our reputation with customers and negatively impact our results
- We are subject to litigation, environmental and other legal and compliance risks
- We are subject to risks arising from doing business with the U.S. government
- We may recognize impairment charges for our goodwill and intangible assets
- Failure to maintain a satisfactory credit rating could adversely affect our liquidity, capital position, borrowing costs and access to the capital markets
- After the Separation and the Distribution, certain members of management, directors and shareowners own stock in UTC, Carrier and Otis, and as a result may face actual or potential conflicts of interest
- In certain circumstances, we could be required to indemnify UTC for material taxes and other related amounts pursuant to indemnification obligations under the TMA
- Potential liabilities may arise due to fraudulent transfer considerations, which would adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations
- The market price and trading volume of our common stock may fluctuate significantly
- Shareowner's percentage of ownership in our common stock may be diluted in the future
- Quarterly cash dividends may be discontinued or modified, are subject to a number of uncertainties and may affect the price of our common stock
- Anti-takeover provisions could enable our Board of Directors to resist a takeover attempt by a third party and limit the power of our shareowners
- Natural disasters, epidemics or other unexpected events may disrupt our operations, adversely affect our results of operations, cash flows or financial condition and may not be fully covered by insurance
- Our business success depends on attracting and retaining key personnel and other talent throughout the Company
- Additional tax expense or additional tax exposures could affect our future profitability
- Failure to maintain effective internal controls over financial reporting in accordance with Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act could materially and adversely affect us