CME Group (CME)
Financials · $110B market cap · SEC CIK 0001156375
ahead of 89% of the S&P 500 · #11 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Feb 2, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $3.06 in earnings per share.
52-week range $218.31 to $329.16. 6% below its 52-week high and 42% above its low.
The case for CME
- 35% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Revenue growing 12.3% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 18.7% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 16%.
- Gross margin of 96% absorbs cost shocks.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.19).
The case against
- Dividend takes 95% of earnings, leaving little cushion.
- Price/sales of 8.7× is higher than 91% of Financials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 26 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 78 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 87 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 74 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 77 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +12.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +18.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $6.5B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 96% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 84% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 57.5% → 62.5% → 34.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $4.4B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 24.9× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 26× |
| Price / book | 3.55× |
| Fair P/B for its ROE | 1.6× |
| Forward P/E | 23.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.2× |
At 24.9× earnings it trades close to the 26× that 10%+ a year of growth plus a 2.0% dividend would justify. At 3.55× book it trades well above the 1.6× that its 16% return on equity would justify; for a financial company that counts for more than earnings.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from CME Group's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $6.5B | $6.1B | $5.6B | $5.0B | $4.7B |
| Change on the year | +6% | +10% | +11% | +7% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $4.2B | $3.6B | $3.4B | $3.0B | $2.3B |
| Of revenue | 64% | 59% | 61% | 59% | 49% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 64.9% | 64.1% | 61.6% | 60.1% | 56.4% |
| Net margin | 62.5% | 57.5% | 57.8% | 53.6% | 56.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $4.4B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $2.7B | $2.8B |
What CME Group says it does
CME Group enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and over-the-counter (OTC) products, optimize portfolios and analyze data - empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group provides primary price discovery and referential pricing information through its market data in a variety of formats, including real-time, historical and derived data for customers in both listed and cash products. CME Group also offers industry-leading research and analytics tools to provide customers with market education resources. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers. Our principal executive offices are located at 20 South Wacker Drive, Chicago, Illinois 60606, our telephone number is 312-930-1000 and our website is cmegroup.com . The graphic below provides a brief overview of key events within CME Group's history: DESCRIPTION OF BUSINESS CME…
Risk factors CME lists in its 10-K
- Competition in our Derivatives Exchange Business
- Competition in our Derivatives Clearing Business
- Competition in our Securities Clearing Business
- Competition in our Cash Markets Business
- Competition in our Data Services Business
- Regulation of our Derivatives Business, Derivatives Clearing Business, and Swap Data Repositories
- Regulation of our Cash Markets Business
- Regulation of our Securities Clearing Business
- Regulation of our Data Services Business
- Information about our Executive Officers
- Our business is subject to the impact of global market, economic and political conditions that are beyond our control and that could significantly impact our business and make our financial results more volatile
- We face intense competition from other companies. If we are not able to successfully compete,
- our business, financial condition and operating results will be materially harmed
- Our trading volume, and consequently our revenues and profits, would be adversely affected if we are unable to retain our current customers at substantially similar trading levels or attract new customers
- As a financial services provider, we are subject to significant litigation risk and regulatory liability and penalties
- We may be at greater risk from terrorism, which poses physical security risks and cybersecurity risks, than other companies
- Damage to our reputation or brand could harm our business
- Our business is subject to the impact of financial markets volatility, which is caused by conditions that are beyond our control
- If we experience system failures or capacity constraints, our ability to conduct our operations and execute our business strategy could be materially harmed, and we could be subject to significant costs and liabilities
- Our business exposes us to substantial credit risk of our clearing firms and other counterparties and, consequently, a decrease in their financial resources could adversely affect us
- Our market data revenues may be reduced by decreased demand, poor overall economic conditions, regulatory changes or a significant change in how market participants trade and use market data
- We may have difficulty executing our growth strategy and maintaining our growth effectively
- The expansion of our global operations is complex and subjects us to increased business and economic risks that could adversely affect our financial results
- Our risk management, compliance and monitoring programs might not be effective and may result in outcomes that could adversely affect our reputation, financial condition and operating results
- We could be harmed by misconduct or errors that are difficult to detect and deter
- A failure to protect our intellectual property rights, or allegations that we have infringed the intellectual property rights of others, could adversely affect our business
- Our use of artificial intelligence in our business may be unsuccessful and may give rise to various risks, which could adversely affect our business, reputation or operating results
- Our indebtedness could adversely affect our financial condition and operations and prevent us from fulfilling our debt service obligations. We might still be able to incur more debt, intensifying these risks
- Any reduction in our credit rating cou
- ld increase the cost of our funding from the capital markets