Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Consumer Discretionary · $45.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0001058090
ahead of 81% of the S&P 500 · #15 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.25 in earnings per share.
52-week range $27.31 to $41.42. 13% below its 52-week high and 32% above its low.
The case for CMG
- Earns 56% back on shareholder equity.
- Holds more cash ($351M) than long-term debt ($0).
- Has compounded revenue at 14.8% a year over five years.
- Carries essentially no debt.
The case against
- Priced at 32.8× earnings while earnings per share are shrinking (−6.0%).
- Earnings per share fell 6.0%.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.81).
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 60 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 59 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 65 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 62 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 86 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +7.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +14.8% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $11.9B (+5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.4B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 12% |
| Of profit | 94% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 29% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 14% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 13.6% → 12.9% → 10.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, more cash than debt
| Cash | $351M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $0 |
| Net cash | $351M |
| Years to repay | 0.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 32.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 37× |
| P/FCF | 31.2× |
| Forward P/E | 32.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 20.4× |
At 32.8× earnings it trades close to the 37× that 19% a year of growth would justify. At 31.2× free cash flow it trades below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Chipotle Mexican Grill's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $11.9B | $11.3B | $9.9B | $8.6B | $7.5B |
| Change on the year | +5% | +15% | +14% | +14% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.2B | $844M | $840M |
| Of revenue | 12% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 11% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 16.2% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 12.9% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $351M | $749M | $561M | $384M | $815M |
| Long-term debt | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net cash (debt) | $351M | $749M | $561M | $384M | $815M |
What Chipotle Mexican Grill says it does
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., a Delaware corporation, together with its subsidiaries (“Chipotle,” “we,” “us,” or “our”) owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a relevant menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), quesadillas, tacos, and salads. We strive to cultivate a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients and without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. We are passionate about providing a great guest experience and making our food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose. Our first Chipotle restaurant opened in Denver, Colorado in 1993. Over 30 years later, our devotion to seeking out high-quality ingredients, raised with respect for animals, farmers, and the environment, remains at the core of our commitment to Food with Integrity. As of December 31, 2025, we owned…
Risk factors CMG lists in its 10-K
- Food safety and food-borne illness concerns may have an adverse effect on our business by negatively impacting our brand, decreasing sales and increasing costs
- Failure to maintain the value and reputation of the Chipotle brand could negatively impact our financial results
- The restaurant industry is highly competitive. If we are not able to compete successfully, our business, financial condition and results of operations would be adversely affected
- Our use of third-party delivery services may not be profitable and substandard service may negatively impact our reputation
- If we are not able to hire, train and retain qualified restaurant employees and/or appropriately plan our workforce, our growth plan and profitability could be adversely affected
- If we fail to comply with applicable employment and labor laws and regulations, it could have a material, adverse impact on our business
- Increases in the cost of labor, including mandated minimum wage increases and increases in the cost of health benefits, could adversely impact our business and profitability
- We are heavily dependent on information technology systems and failures or interruptions in our IT systems could harm our ability to effectively operate our business and/or result in the loss of guests or employees
- If we fail to fully comply with privacy and data protection laws and regulations, we could incur significant civil and criminal penalties and liabilities, suffer reputational damage, and adverse publicity
- Increases in the costs of ingredients, restaurant equipment and other materials could adversely affect our financial results
- Shortages or interruptions in the supply of ingredients could adversely affect our operating results
- If our supply chain capacity does not expand to support our new restaurant growth, our long-term growth goals could be impaired or delayed
- We could be party to litigation or other legal proceedings that could adversely affect our business, results of operations and reputation
- If we are unable to meet our new restaurant opening goals, or maintain the attractiveness of our existing restaurants, our profitability could suffer
- Our failure to effectively manage and support our growth could have a negative adverse effect on our business and financial results
- We are subject to evolving public disclosure obligations, including with respect to sustainability matters, which could expose us to numerous risks and could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations
- Climate change and volatile adverse weather conditions could adversely affect our restaurant sales or results of operations
- r financial condition and results of operations have been, and may continue to be, adversely affected by a number of macroeconomic and other factors, many of which are largely outside our control