Cummins (CMI)
Industrials · $63.9B market cap · SEC CIK 0000026172
ahead of 36% of the S&P 500 · #51 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $8.16 in earnings per share.
52-week range $443.62 to $737.76. 38% below its 52-week high and 2% above its low.
The case for CMI
- Earns 26% back on shareholder equity.
- Pays a 3.0% dividend while you wait.
- Reasonably priced for its growth: 19.3× earnings, where 10% a year of growth plus a 3.0% dividend would justify about 27×.
- Has compounded revenue at 11.2% a year over five years.
The case against
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 38% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
- Weakest against its peers: net margin of 9% is thinner than 69% of Industrials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 70 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 67 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 44 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 20 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 50 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +6.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +11.2% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $33.7B (−1%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.4B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 7% |
| Of profit | 81% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 26% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 13% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 11.9% → 8.8% → 9.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $2.8B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $6.8B |
| Net debt | $3.9B |
| Years to repay | 1.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 19.3× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 27× |
| P/FCF | 26.8× |
| Forward P/E | 14.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.3× |
At 19.3× earnings it trades below the 27× that 10% a year of growth plus a 3.0% dividend would justify. At 26.8× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Cummins's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $33.7B | $34.1B | $34.1B | $28.1B | $24.0B |
| Change on the year | −1% | 0% | +21% | +17% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.4B | $279M | $2.8B | $1.0B | $1.5B |
| Of revenue | 7% | 1% | 8% | 4% | 6% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 25.3% | 24.7% | 24.2% | 23.9% | 23.7% |
| Operating margin | 12.0% | 11.0% | 5.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% |
| Net margin | 8.8% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $2.8B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $2.1B | $2.6B |
| Long-term debt | $6.8B | $4.8B | $4.8B | $4.5B | $3.6B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$3.9B | −$3.1B | −$2.6B | −$2.4B | −$987M |
What Cummins says it does
OVERVIEW We were founded in 1919 as Cummins Engine Company, a corporation in Columbus, Indiana, and one of the first diesel engine manufacturers. In 2001, we changed our name to Cummins Inc. We are a global power leader committed to powering a more prosperous world. Since 1919, we have delivered innovative solutions that move people, goods and economies forward. Our five reportable segments - Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems and Accelera - offer a broad portfolio, including advanced diesel, electric and hybrid powertrains; integrated power generation systems; critical components such as aftertreatment, turbochargers, fuel systems, controls, transmissions, axles and brakes; and zero emissions technologies like battery and electric powertrain systems. With a global footprint, deep technical expertise and an extensive service network, we deliver dependable, cutting-edge solutions tailored to our customers' needs, supporting…
Risk factors CMI lists in its 10-K
- Evolving environmental and climate change legislation and regulatory initiatives may adversely impact our operations, could impact the competitive landscape within our markets and could negatively affect demand for our products
- We operate our business on a global basis and changes in tariffs and other trade disruptions could adversely impact the demand for our products and our competitive position
- Deregulation could impair our investments in future products and negatively impact our long-term growth and competitiveness
- Unanticipated changes in our effective tax rate, the adoption of new tax legislation or exposure to additional income tax liabilities could adversely affect our profitability
- Our global operations are subject to laws and regulations that impose significant compliance costs and create reputational and legal risk
- Future bans or limitations on the use of diesel-powered vehicles or other applications could have a material adverse impact on our business over the long term
- We are vulnerable to raw material, transportation and labor price fluctuations and supply shortages, which impacted and could continue to impact our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- We face the challenge of accurately aligning our capacity with our demand
- We derive significant earnings from investees that we do not directly control, with more than 50 percent of these earnings from our China-based investees
- Our products are subject to recall for performance or safety-related issues
- Our products are exposed to variability in material and commodity costs
- Lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of our new or existing products or services could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Our business is exposed to potential product liability claims
- Our business and operations are subject to interest rate risks, and changes in interest rates can reduce demand for our products and increase borrowing costs and result in non-cash charges
- We operate in challenging markets for talent and may fail to attract, develop and retain key personnel
- Our IT environment and our products are exposed to potential security breaches or other disruptions, which may adversely impact our competitive position, reputation, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- We face significant competition in the regions we serve
- Increasing global competition among our customers may affect our existing customer relationships and restrict our ability to benefit from some of our customers' growth
- Failure to meet sustainability expectations or standards, or to achieve our sustainability goals, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition
- We may be adversely impacted by work stoppages and other labor matters
- We are subject to foreign currency exchange rate and other related risks
- Significant declines in future financial and stock market conditions could diminish our pension plan asset performance and adversely impact our results of operations, financial condition and cash flow
- We are exposed to risks arising from the price and availability of energy