CMS Energy (CMS)
Utilities · $21.7B market cap · SEC CIK 0000811156
ahead of 32% of the S&P 500 · #19 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.00 in earnings per share.
52-week range $62.29 to $80.36. 13% below its 52-week high and 12% above its low.
The case for CMS
- Revenue growing 9.3% year over year.
- Pays a 3.4% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.28).
The case against
- Long-term debt of $17.8B would take 8 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 2.7 times.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.94).
- Growth is weak (38/100): revenue +9.3%, EPS −1.9%, +5.6% a year over five years.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 53 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 38 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 64 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 44 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 47 |
- Capital spending is missing from its filings, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow stands in for the cash test, against a stricter bar.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +9.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +5.6% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $8.5B (+14%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Can't tell: no capital spending in its filings
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $2.2B |
|---|---|
| Of profit, before capital spending | 209% |
Its filings do not give capital spending, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow, which is before that spending, is shown instead, and the score judges it against a stricter bar.
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 32% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 21% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 13.3% → 12.5% → 12.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $509M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $17.8B |
| Net debt | $17.3B |
| Years to repay | 8.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 21.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 24× |
| Forward P/E | 17.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.2× |
At 21.2× earnings it trades close to the 24× that 7% a year of growth plus a 3.4% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from CMS Energy's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $8.5B | $7.5B | $7.5B | $8.6B | $7.3B |
| Change on the year | +14% | +1% | −13% | +17% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −$1.5B | −$257M |
| Of revenue | — | — | — | −18% | −4% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 20.2% | 19.8% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 15.6% |
| Net margin | 12.5% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 18.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $509M | $103M | $227M | $164M | $452M |
| Long-term debt | $17.8B | $15.2B | $14.5B | $13.1B | $12.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$17.3B | −$15.1B | −$14.3B | −$13.0B | −$11.6B |
What CMS Energy says it does
CMS Energy CMS Energy was formed as a corporation in Michigan in 1987 and is an energy company operating primarily in Michigan. It is the parent holding company of several subsidiaries, including Consumers, an electric and gas utility, and NorthStar Clean Energy, primarily a domestic independent power producer and marketer. Consumers’ customer base consists of a mix of primarily residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. NorthStar Clean Energy, through its subsidiaries and equity investments, is engaged in domestic independent power production, including the development and operation of renewable generation, and the marketing of independent power production. CMS Energy manages its businesses by the nature of services each provides, and operates principally in three business segments: electric utility; gas utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy, its non‑utility operations and investments. Consumers’ consolidated…
Risk factors CMS lists in its 10-K
- CMS Energy depends on dividends from its subsidiaries to meet its debt service obligations
- CMS Energy has indebtedness that could limit its financial flexibility and its ability to meet its debt service obligations
- CMS Energy and Consumers have financing needs and could be unable to obtain bank financing or access the capital markets
- Market performance and other changes could decrease the value of employee benefit plan assets, which then could require substantial funding
- Changes to ROA could have a material adverse effect on CMS Energy’s and Consumers’ businesses
- Distributed energy resources could have a material adverse effect on CMS Energy’s and Consumers’ businesses
- CMS Energy and Consumers are subject to rate regulation, which could have a material adverse effect on financial results
- Utility regulation, state or federal legislation, regulation, and compliance could have a material adverse effect on CMS Energy’s and Consumers’ businesses
- Changes in taxation as well as the inherent difficulty in quantifying potential tax effects of business decisions could negatively impact CMS Energy and Consumers
- CMS Energy and its subsidiaries, including Consumers, must comply with the Dodd-Frank Act and its related regulations
- CMS Energy and Consumers could incur substantial costs to comply with environmental requirements
- CMS Energy’s and Consumers’ businesses could be affected adversely by any delay in meeting environmental requirements
- CMS Energy and Consumers expect to incur additional substantial costs related to environmental remediation of former sites
- There are risks associated with Consumers’ substantial capital investment program planned for the next five years
- CMS Energy and Consumers could be affected adversely by legacy litigation and retained liabilities
- Consumers is exposed to risks related to general economic conditions in its service territories
- Consumers is exposed to changes in customer usage that could impact financial results
- CMS Energy’s and Consumers’ energy sales and operations are affected by seasonal factors and varying weather conditions from year to year
- Demand for electricity associated with data center expansion could have a material effect on CMS Energy and Consumers
- CMS Energy and Consumers are subject to information security risks, risks of unauthorized access to their systems, and technology failures
- CMS Energy’s and Consumers’ businesses have liability risks
- Energy risk management strategies might not be effective in managing fuel and electricity pricing risks, which could result in unanticipated liabilities to CMS Energy and Consumers or increased volatility in their earnings
- CMS Energy and Consumers might not be able to obtain an adequate supply of natural gas or coal, which could limit their ability to operate electric generation facilities or serve Consumers’ natural gas customers
- Unplanned outages or maintenance could be costly for CMS Energy or Consumers
- CMS Energy and Consumers are exposed to counterparty risk
- CMS Energy and Consumers are exposed to significant reputational risks
- A work interruption or other union actions could adversely affect CMS Energy and Consumers
- Failure to attract and retain an appropriately qualified workforce could adversely impact CMS Energy’s and Consumers’ results of operations