CSX Corporation (CSX)
Industrials · $94.0B market cap · SEC CIK 0000277948
ahead of 37% of the S&P 500 · #48 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 20, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.53 in earnings per share.
52-week range $33.63 to $53.60. 5% below its 52-week high and 52% above its low.
The case for CSX
- Earns 26% back on shareholder equity.
- 24% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Earnings per share up 25.3%.
- Gross margin of 72% absorbs cost shocks.
- Pays a modest 1.3% dividend.
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 26.3× earnings, where 6% a year of growth plus a 1.3% dividend would justify about 18×.
- Priced at 6.3× sales with revenue growing only 5.8%.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.84).
- Long-term debt of $18.2B against $670M of cash.
- Free-cash-flow yield of 1.8% is lower than 89% of Industrials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 20 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 50 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 75 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 72 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 39 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +5.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +5.9% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $14.1B (−3%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.7B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 12% |
| Of profit | 59% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 72% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 36% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 23.9% → 20.5% → 24.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $670M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $18.2B |
| Net debt | $17.5B |
| Years to repay | 3.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 26.3× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 18× |
| P/FCF | 55.0× |
| Forward P/E | 22.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.8× |
At 26.3× earnings it trades above the 18× that 6% a year of growth plus a 1.3% dividend would justify. At 55.0× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from CSX Corporation's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $14.1B | $14.5B | $14.7B | $14.9B | $12.5B |
| Change on the year | −3% | −1% | −1% | +19% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.7B | $2.7B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $3.3B |
| Of revenue | 12% | 19% | 22% | 23% | 26% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 32.1% | 36.1% | 37.5% | 40.1% | 44.7% |
| Net margin | 20.5% | 23.9% | 25.0% | 27.7% | 30.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $670M | $933M | $1.4B | $2.0B | $2.2B |
| Long-term debt | $18.2B | $17.9B | $18.0B | $17.9B | $16.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$17.5B | −$17.0B | −$16.6B | −$15.9B | −$13.9B |
What CSX Corporation says it does
CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries ("CSX" or the “Company”), based in Jacksonville, Florida, is one of the nation's leading transportation companies. The Company provides rail-based freight transportation services including traditional rail service, the transport of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. CSX and the rail industry provide customers with access to an expansive and interconnected transportation network that plays a key role in North American commerce and is critical to the long-term economic success and improved global competitiveness of the United States. In addition, freight railroads provide the most economical and environmentally efficient means to transport goods over land. CSX Transportation, Inc. CSX’s principal operating subsidiary, CSX Transportation, Inc. (“CSXT”), provides an important link to the…
Risk factors CSX lists in its 10-K
- New legislation, regulatory changes or other governmental actions could impact the Company's earnings or restrict its ability to independently negotiate prices
- Government regulation and compliance risks may adversely affect the Company's operations and financial results
- CSXT, as a common carrier by rail, is required by law to transport hazardous materials and could be adversely impacted by non-compliance with applicable regulations or from regulatory and legislative changes
- The Company may be subject to various claims and lawsuits that could result in significant expenditures
- Operational, Safety and Business Disruption
- The Company relies on the security, stability and availability of its technology systems to operate its business
- Network or supply chain constraints could have a negative impact on service, operating efficiency or volume of shipments
- CSXT, as a common carrier by rail, transports hazardous materials, which could expose the Company to significant costs and claims in the event of a train accident
- An epidemic or pandemic and the initiatives to reduce its transmission could adversely affect the Company's business
- Future acts of terrorism, war or regulatory changes to combat the risk of terrorism may cause significant disruptions in the Company's operations
- Severe weather or other natural occurrences could result in significant business interruptions and expenditures in excess of available insurance coverage
- Competitive, Economic and Financial
- The Company faces competition from other transportation providers
- Global economic conditions could negatively affect demand for commodities and other freight
- Changing dynamics in the U.S. and global energy markets could negatively impact profitability
- Weaknesses in the capital and credit markets could negatively impact the Company’s access to capital
- Availability of Critical Supplies and Labor
- The unavailability of critical resources could adversely affect the Company’s operational efficiency and ability to meet demand
- Disruption to a key railroad industry supplier could negatively affect operating efficiency and increase costs
- Failure to complete negotiations on collective bargaining agreements could result in strikes and/or work stoppages
- The Company’s operations and financial results could be negatively impacted by climate or weather-related risks as well as regulatory and legislative responses
- The Company is subject to environmental laws and regulations that may result in significant costs