Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Industrials · $60.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0000027904
ahead of 78% of the S&P 500 · #13 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 11, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.41 in earnings per share.
52-week range $55.27 to $95.68. 4% below its 52-week high and 67% above its low.
The case for DAL
- Cheap for its growth: 18.4× earnings, where 25% a year of growth plus a 1.1% dividend (0.3% of it counted) would justify about 46×.
- Revenue growing 14.1% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 30.0% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 15%.
- Pays a modest 1.1% dividend.
- Within 4% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.
The case against
- Earnings per share down 29.6%.
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 14.1% this year against 30.0% a year over five.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.40).
- Net margin of 5% is thinner than 92% of Industrials companies.
- Stability is weak (40/100): beta 1.41, 1.4 years of cash flow to clear its debt, a 42% swing over the year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 94 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 71 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 30 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 78 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 40 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +14.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +30.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $63.4B (+3%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $3.8B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 6% |
| Of profit | 77% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 46% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 7% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 5.6% → 7.9% → 4.6% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $4.3B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $11.9B |
| Net debt | $7.6B |
| Years to repay | 1.4 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 18.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 46× |
| P/FCF | 15.7× |
| Forward P/E | 11.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.8× |
At 18.4× earnings it trades well below the 46× that 25% a year of growth plus a 1.1% dividend (0.3% of it counted) would justify. At 15.7× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Delta Air Lines's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $63.4B | $61.6B | $58.0B | $50.6B | $29.9B |
| Change on the year | +3% | +6% | +15% | +69% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $3.8B | $2.9B | $1.1B | −$3.0M | $17.0M |
| Of revenue | 6% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% |
| Net margin | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $4.3B | $3.1B | $2.7B | $3.3B | $7.9B |
| Long-term debt | $11.9B | $13.5B | $16.0B | $19.3B | $23.6B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$7.6B | −$10.5B | −$13.2B | −$16.1B | −$15.6B |
What Delta Air Lines says it does
Part I ITEM 1. BUSINESS General As a global airline based in the United States, we connect customers across our expansive global network with a commitment to ensuring that the future of travel is connected, personalized and enjoyable. In 2025, we served over 200 million customers safely, reliably and with industry-leading customer service innovation. Competitive Advantages and Brand Strength As we celebrated our centennial year in 2025, we continued to differentiate Delta from the industry and to invest in extending our competitive advantages. These enduring competitive advantages, which support our trusted consumer brand, include our people and culture, operational reliability, global network, customer loyalty and financial foundation. People and Culture The Delta people and culture are our strongest competitive advantage. Our more than 100,000 employees provide world-class travel experiences for our customers and best-in-class…
Risk factors DAL lists in its 10-K
- We are at risk of losses and adverse publicity stemming from a serious accident involving our aircraft or aircraft of our airline partners
- Disruptions of our information technology infrastructure could interfere with our operations, possibly having a material adverse effect on our business
- Failure of the technology we use to perform effectively could have a material adverse effect on our business
- Our business and results of operations are dependent on the price of aircraft fuel. High fuel costs or cost increases, including in the cost of crude oil, could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations
- Significant extended disruptions in the supply of aircraft fuel, including from Monroe, could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations
- Our commercial relationships with airlines in other parts of the world and the investments that we have in certain of those carriers may not produce the results or returns we expect
- Employee strikes and other labor-related disruptions may have a material adverse effect on our
- Our results can fluctuate due to seasonality and other factors
- Significant damage to our reputation and brand, including as a result of significant adverse publicity or inability to achieve certain sustainability goals, could materially adversely affect our business and financial results
- Disease outbreaks or other public health threats, and measures implemented to combat them have had, and may in the future have, a material adverse effect on our business
- Terrorist attacks, geopolitical conflict or security events may adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations
- The global airline industry is highly competitive and, if we cannot successfully compete in the marketplace, our business, financial condition and results of operations will be materially adversely affected
- The airline industry is subject to extensive regulatory and legal compliance requirements, which is costly and could materially adversely affect our business