Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Consumer Discretionary · $83.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0001585689

Next reports on Feb 9, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.41 in earnings per share.

52-week range $263.95 to $381.34. At its 52-week high and 44% above its low.

The case for HLT

• Generated $2.0B of free cash flow in FY2025, 17% of revenue.
• Revenue growing 8.1% year over year.
• Earns 10% a year on everything it owns (return on assets).
• Has compounded revenue at 22.8% a year over five years.
• Within 1% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.

The case against

• Pricey for its growth: 49.1× earnings, where 18% a year of growth would justify about 35×.
• Long-term debt of $12.3B would take 6 years of operating cash flow to repay.
• Priced at 6.6× sales with revenue growing only 8.1%.
• Growth is slowing: revenue up 8.1% this year against 22.8% a year over five.
• Owes more than it owns: shareholder equity is −$5.4B, usually the result of buybacks funded with debt. ROE and price-to-book mean little here.
• Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.59).

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Shareholder equity is negative, so return on equity, price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Hilton Worldwide's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Hilton Worldwide says it does

Overview Hilton is one of the largest global hospitality companies, with 9,158 properties comprising 1,351,351 rooms in 143 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. Founded in 1919, Hilton has been an innovator in the industry for over 105 years, driven by the vision of founder Conrad Hilton "to fill the earth with the light and warmth of hospitality." Our premier brand portfolio includes luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service and all-suites hotel brands, as well as timeshare brands. As of December 31, 2025, we had 243 million members in our award-winning guest loyalty program, Hilton Honors, an increase of 15 percent from December 31, 2024; refer to "—Our Brand Portfolio" and "—Our Guest Loyalty Program" below for additional information on our brands, including Hilton Honors. We operate our business through: (i) a management and franchise segment and (ii) an ownership segment, each of which is reported as a segment…

Risk factors HLT lists in its 10-K

• In addition to the other information in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, the following risk factors should be considered carefully in evaluating our company and our business
• We are subject to the business, financial and operating risks inherent to the hospitality industry, any of which could reduce our revenues and limit opportunities for growth
• Macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical activity, public health concerns and other factors beyond our control can adversely affect and reduce demand for our products and services
• Contraction in the global economy or low levels of economic growth could adversely affect our revenues and profitability, as well as limit or slow our future growth
• Because we operate in a highly competitive industry, our revenues or profits could be harmed if we are unable to compete effectively
• Competition for management and franchise contracts
• Any deterioration in the quality or reputation of our brands could have an adverse effect on our reputation, business, financial condition or results of operations
• Our business is subject to risks related to doing business with third-party property owners that could adversely affect our reputation, operational results or prospects for growth
• Our business is subject to real estate investment risks for third-party hotel owners that could adversely affect our operational results and our prospects for growth
• If our third-party property owners fail to make investments necessary to maintain or improve their properties, guest preference for Hilton brands, Hilton's reputation and performance results could suffer
• Contractual and other disagreements with third-party property owners could make us liable to them or result in litigation costs or other expenses or termination of existing management or franchise contracts
• Some of our existing development pipeline may not be developed into new hotels, which could materially adversely affect our growth prospects
• New hotel brands or non-hotel branded concepts that we launch in the future may not be as successful as we anticipate, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
• The risks resulting from investments in leased real estate could increase our costs, reduce our profits and limit our ability to respond to market conditions
• Failure to keep pace with developments in technology, including AI, could adversely affect our operations or competitive position
• Cyber-attacks could have a disruptive effect on our business
• We are incorporating artificial intelligence technologies into our processes. These technologies may present business, compliance and reputational risks
• We are exposed to risks and costs associated with protecting the integrity and security of personal data and other sensitive information
• Delays in service from third-party service providers could expose us to liability, harm our reputation, damage our competitiveness and adversely affect our financial performance
• Failure to comply with marketing and advertising laws, including with regard to direct marketing, could result in fines or place restrictions on our business
• The growth of internet reservation channels could adversely affect our business and profitability
• Our reservation system is an important component of our business operations and a disruption to its functioning could have an adverse effect on our performance and results
• The cessation, reduction or taxation of program benefits of our Hilton Honors guest loyalty program could adversely affect the Hilton brands and guest loyalty
• Because we derive a portion of our revenues from operations outside the U.S., the risks of doing business internationally could lower our revenues, increase our costs, reduce our profits or disrupt our business
• Failure to comply with laws and regulations applicable to our international operations may increase costs, reduce profits, limit growth or subject us to broader liability
• Collective bargaining activity could disrupt our operations, increase our labor costs or interfere with the ability of our management to focus on executing our business strategies
• The loss of key senior management personnel or labor shortages could restrict our ability to grow our business or operate our properties or result in increased labor costs that could adversely affect our results of operations
• Any failure to protect our trademarks and other IP could reduce the value of the Hilton brands and harm our business
• Third-party claims that we infringe IP rights of others could subject us to damages and other costs and expenses
• Exchange rate fluctuations and foreign exchange hedging arrangements could result in significant foreign currency gains and losses that affect our business results
• Climate change could adversely affect our business
• Our business is subject to evolving corporate governance and public disclosure regulations and expectations, including with respect to sustainability matters, that could increase costs or expose us to reputational and other risks
• Governmental regulation may adversely affect our results and the operation of our properties
• Foreign or U.S. environmental laws and regulations may cause us to incur substantial costs or subject us to potential liabilities
• Servicing our indebtedness will require a significant amount of cash. Our ability to generate sufficient cash depends on many factors, some of which are not within our control
• Certain of our debt agreements impose operating and financial restrictions on us and our subsidiaries, which may prevent us from capitalizing on business opportunities
• Despite our current level of indebtedness, we may be able to incur substantially more debt and enter into other transactions, which could further exacerbate the risks to our financial condition described above
• Although we currently pay a quarterly cash dividend to holders of our common stock, we may change our dividend policy at any time
• Anti-takeover provisions in our organizational documents and Delaware law might discourage or delay acquisition attempts for us that stockholders might consider favorable

Filings

Other Consumer Discretionary companies