Howmet Aerospace (HWM)
Industrials · $87.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0000004281
ahead of 69% of the S&P 500 · #22 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Feb 10, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.52 in earnings per share.
52-week range $183.52 to $310.00. 29% below its 52-week high and 19% above its low.
The case for HWM
- Revenue up 22.0% on the year.
- Earns 37% back on shareholder equity.
- Generated $1.4B of free cash flow in FY2025, 17% of revenue.
- 21% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Earnings per share up 43.0%.
The case against
- The price trend is weak (32/100): +4.6% over a year, −23.8% over three months, 29% below its 52-week high.
- P/E of 42.4× is higher than 91% of Industrials companies.
- Price/sales of 9.0× is higher than 100% of Industrials companies.
- Free-cash-flow yield of 1.6% is lower than 95% of Industrials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 49 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 84 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 80 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 32 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 47 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +22.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +9.4% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $8.3B (+11%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.4B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 17% |
| Of profit | 95% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 37% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 28% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 15.5% → 18.3% → 21.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $742M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $2.9B |
| Net debt | $2.1B |
| Years to repay | 1.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 42.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 44× |
| P/FCF | 60.9× |
| Forward P/E | 31.1× |
| EV / EBITDA | 30.0× |
At 42.4× earnings it trades close to the 44× that 24% a year of growth would justify. At 60.9× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Howmet Aerospace's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $8.3B | $7.4B | $6.6B | $5.7B | $5.0B |
| Change on the year | +11% | +12% | +17% | +14% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.4B | $977M | $682M | $540M | $250M |
| Of revenue | 17% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 24.8% | 22.0% | 18.1% | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| Net margin | 18.3% | 15.5% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 5.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $742M | $564M | $610M | $791M | $720M |
| Long-term debt | $2.9B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $4.2B | $4.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$2.1B | −$2.7B | −$2.9B | −$3.4B | −$3.5B |
What Howmet Aerospace says it does
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is a Delaware corporation with its principal office in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. In this report, unless the context otherwise requires, “Howmet”, the “Company”, “we”, “us”, and “our” refer to Howmet Aerospace Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. The Company’s Internet address is https://www.howmet.com. Howmet makes available free of charge on or through its website its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K, and amendments to those reports filed or furnished pursuant to Section 13(a) or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as well as proxy statements, as soon as reasonably practicable after the Company electronically files such material with, or furnishes it to, the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). The Company’s website is included in this annual report on Form 10-K as an inactive textual reference only. The information on, or accessible…
Risk factors HWM lists in its 10-K
- The markets for Howmet’s products are cyclical, and such markets and Howmet’s operations
- are influenced by a number of factors, including global economic conditions and regulations
- A material disruption of, or manufacturing difficulties at, Howmet’s manufacturing operations could adversely affect Howmet’s business
- Howmet is dependent on a limited number of suppliers for materials and services essential to our operations, including raw materials, and supply chain disruptions could have a material adverse effect on our business
- Howmet’s business depends, in part, on its ability to successfully meet program demand, production targets, and commitments
- Failure to attract and retain a qualified workforce and key personnel or to provide adequate succession planning could adversely affect Howmet’s operations and competitiveness
- Howmet could be adversely affected by the loss of key customers or significant changes in the business or financial condition of its customers
- Howmet faces significant competition, which may have an adverse effect on profitability
- Howmet’s global operations expose Howmet to risks that could adversely affect its business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows, or the market price of its securities
- Howmet may not realize the expected benefits of acquisitions on the anticipated time frame or at all
- A decline in Howmet’s financial performance or outlook could negatively impact its credit profile, its access to capital markets and its borrowing costs
- Dividends and share repurchases fall within the discretion of our Board of Directors and depend on a number of factors
- Howmet may be exposed to significant legal proceedings, investigations, or changes in U.S. federal, state, or foreign law, regulation, or policy
- Our business may be adversely affected if we fail to comply with government contracting regulations
- Howmet may face challenges to its intellectual property rights which could adversely affect the Company’s reputation, business, and competitive position
- Unanticipated changes in Howmet’s tax provisions or exposure to additional tax liabilities could affect Howmet’s future profitability
- Labor disputes and other employee relations issues could adversely affect Howmet’s business, financial condition, or results of operations
- Howmet is exposed to environmental, health, and safety risks and is subject to a broad range of health, safety, and environmental laws and regulations which may result in substantial costs and liabilities
- Howmet may be affected by global climate change or by legal, regulatory, customer, or supplier responses to such change
- With respect to the various transaction agreements that the Company entered into in connection with its separation transactions, if the counterparties fail to meet their obligations or
- if we have material indemnification obligations under such agreements, our business, results of operations, and financial condition may be materially adversely affected