Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Financials · $97.3B market cap · SEC CIK 0001571949
ahead of 73% of the S&P 500 · #23 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.95 in earnings per share.
52-week range $121.79 to $177.94. 1% below its 52-week high and 45% above its low.
The case for ICE
- 30% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Revenue growing 12.1% year over year.
- Earnings per share up 33.4%.
- Gross margin of 78% absorbs cost shocks.
- Pays a modest 1.5% dividend.
- Within 1% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.
The case against
- Price/sales of 6.9× is higher than 86% of Financials companies.
- Weakest against its peers: P/E of 23.4× is higher than 72% of Financials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 27 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 62 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 81 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 82 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 58 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +12.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.9% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.6B (+7%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 78% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 41% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 23.4% → 26.2% → 29.6% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $837M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $18.6B |
| Net debt | $17.8B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 23.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 25× |
| Price / book | 2.85× |
| Fair P/B for its ROE | 1.4× |
| Forward P/E | 19.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.5× |
At 23.4× earnings it trades close to the 25× that 10% a year of growth plus a 1.5% dividend would justify. At 2.85× book it trades well above the 1.4× that its 14% return on equity would justify; for a financial company that counts for more than earnings.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Intercontinental Exchange's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $12.6B | $11.8B | $9.9B | $9.6B | $9.2B |
| Change on the year | +7% | +19% | +3% | +5% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $4.3B | $4.2B | $3.4B | $3.3B | $2.9B |
| Of revenue | 34% | 36% | 34% | 35% | 32% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 39.0% | 36.6% | 37.3% | 37.8% | 37.6% |
| Net margin | 26.2% | 23.4% | 23.9% | 15.0% | 44.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $837M | $844M | $899M | $1.8B | $148B |
| Long-term debt | $18.6B | $17.3B | $20.7B | $18.1B | $12.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$17.8B | −$16.5B | −$19.8B | −$16.3B | $136B |
What Intercontinental Exchange says it does
Introduction Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is a leading global provider of technology and data to a broad range of customers including financial institutions, corporations and government entities. Our products, which span major asset classes including futures, equities, fixed income and U.S. residential mortgages, provide our customers with access to mission critical tools that are designed to increase asset class transparency and workflow efficiency. Although we report our results in three reportable business segments, we operate as one business, leveraging the collective expertise, particularly in data services and technology, that exists across our platforms to inform and enhance our operations. Our segments are as follows: • Exchanges: We operate regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading and clearing of a broad array of derivatives contracts and financial securities as well as data and connectivity services…
Risk factors ICE lists in its 10-K
- Mergers & Acquisitions and Common Stock
- Global economic, political and financial market events or conditions have at times in the past negatively impacted, and may in the future negatively impact, our business
- Our business is subject to the impact of interest rate and inflation levels and volatility and financial markets volatility, which are caused by conditions that are beyond our control
- Our role in the global financial system positions us at a greater risk for cyberattacks, cyberterrorism and other cybersecurity risks
- We may be at greater risk from terrorism than other companies
- Systems failures in the derivatives and securities trading industry and mortgage technology industry have in the past negatively impacted us, and could in the future negatively impact us
- Owning clearing houses exposes us to risks, including risks related to defaults by clearing members, risks related to investing margin and guaranty funds and the cost of operating the clearing houses
- Owning and operating cash equity and options exchanges exposes us to risks, including the regulatory responsibilities to which these businesses are subject
- Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates could adversely affect our financial results
- We may have difficulty executing our growth strategy and maintaining our growth effectively
- We may not be successful in offering new products or technologies or in identifying opportunities
- Climate-related risks pose operational, commercial, reputational, regulatory and financial risks
- We have in the past been, and may in the future be, required to recognize impairments of our goodwill, other intangible assets or investments
- Our ownership of a digital asset custody business may introduce additional risks to our business due to its evolving business model
- Pandemics and other public health emergencies could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition
- Our businesses and those of many of our clients have been and continue to be subject to extensive legislation and regulatory scrutiny, and we face the risk of changes to our regulatory environment and business in the future
- Our compliance and risk management methods, as well as our fulfillment of our regulatory obligations, may not be effective, which could lead to enforcement actions by our regulators or other legal proceedings
- Regulatory developments or court rulings may have an adverse impact on our ability to derive revenue from market and mortgage data and technology and connectivity fees
- Ongoing impacts and uncertainty following the U.K.'s exit from the EU, commonly referred to as Brexit, could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition
- Risks relating to the administration of benchmarks and indices, and changes to, cessations of and the replacement of, or transition from, benchmarks and indices may result in legal risks and could adversely affect our business
- We may face liability for content contained in our data products and services
- We are subject to significant litigation and liability risks, including enforcement actions by our regulators
- Our business has in the past been, and may in the future be, harmed by computer and communication systems failures and delays
- An interruption or cessation of an important service, data or content supplied by any third party, or the loss of an exclusive license, could have a material adverse effect on our business
- We currently have a substantial amount of outstanding indebtedness which could adversely affect our financial condition and operations and restrict our activities or our ability to satisfy our debt service obligations
- We face intense competition, and if we fail to keep up with rapid changes in technology and client preferences, it could negatively impact our competitive position
- Damage to our reputation could damage our business
- We are a holding company and depend on our subsidiaries for dividends, distributions and other payments
- Provisions of our organizational documents and Delaware law may delay or deter a change of control of ICE
- Our use of "open source" software could negatively impact our ability to sell our products and services and subject us to litigation
- A failure to protect our intellectual property rights, or allegations that we have infringed the intellectual property rights of others, could adversely affect our business