MGM Resorts (MGM)
Consumer Discretionary · $8.3B market cap · SEC CIK 0000789570
ahead of 52% of the S&P 500 · #22 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.41 in earnings per share.
52-week range $26.71 to $51.59. 36% below its 52-week high and 24% above its low.
The case for MGM
- Cheap for its growth: 12.0× earnings, where 19% a year of growth would justify about 37×.
- Free cash flow of 17.5% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Earnings per share up 1430.6%.
- Has compounded revenue at 27.7% a year over five years.
- Price/sales of 0.5× is lower than 96% of Consumer Discretionary companies.
The case against
- Return on assets of only 1.7%.
- Net margin of 3.9% leaves very little room for error.
- The price trend is weak (29/100): +0.8% over a year, −24.1% over three months, 36% below its 52-week high.
- Stability is weak (37/100): beta 1.29, 2.5 years of cash flow to clear its debt, a 48% swing over the year.
- Revenue grew only 2.6%, roughly the pace of inflation.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 92 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 84 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 32 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 29 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 37 |
- Equity is a sliver of assets, so return on assets stands in for return on equity, and price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +2.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +27.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $17.5B (+2%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.5B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 8% |
| Of profit | 709% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 44% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 7% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 4.3% → 1.2% → 3.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $2.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $6.2B |
| Net debt | $4.2B |
| Years to repay | 2.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 12.0× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 37× |
| P/FCF | 5.7× |
| Forward P/E | 21.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.0× |
At 12.0× earnings it trades well below the 37× that 19% a year of growth would justify. At 5.7× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from MGM Resorts's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $17.5B | $17.2B | $16.2B | $13.1B | $9.7B |
| Change on the year | +2% | +7% | +23% | +36% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.5B | $1.2B | $1.8B | $991M | $883M |
| Of revenue | 8% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 9% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 5.7% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 23.5% |
| Net margin | 1.2% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 13.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $2.1B | $2.4B | $2.9B | $5.9B | $4.7B |
| Long-term debt | $6.2B | $6.4B | $6.3B | $7.4B | $11.8B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$4.2B | −$3.9B | −$3.4B | −$1.5B | −$7.1B |
What MGM Resorts says it does
MGM Resorts International is referred to as the “Company,” “MGM Resorts,” or the “Registrant,” and together with its subsidiaries may also be referred to as “we,” “us” or “our.” Overview MGM Resorts International is a Delaware corporation incorporated in 1986 that acts largely as a holding company and, through subsidiaries, is a global gaming and entertainment company with domestic and international locations featuring best-in-class hotels and casinos, state-of-the-art meeting and conference spaces, incredible live and theatrical entertainment experiences, and an extensive array of restaurant, nightlife and retail offerings, as well as sports betting and online gaming operations. We believe we operate several of the finest casino properties in the world and we continually reinvest in our properties to maintain our competitive advantage. We make significant investments in our properties through newly remodeled hotel rooms, restaurants,…
Risk factors MGM lists in its 10-K
- Current and future economic, capital and credit market conditions could adversely affect our ability to service our substantial indebtedness and significant financial commitments or make planned expenditures
- Our business is affected by economic and market conditions in the jurisdictions in which we operate and in the locations in which our customers reside
- We have suspended our payment of ongoing regular dividends to our stockholders, and may not elect to resume paying dividends in the foreseeable future or at all
- Because a significant number of our major gaming resorts are concentrated on the Las Vegas Strip, we are subject to greater risks than a gaming company that is more geographically diversified
- We extend credit to a large portion of our customers and we may not be able to collect gaming receivables
- We may incur impairments to goodwill, indefinite-lived intangible assets, or long-lived assets which could negatively affect our future profits
- are particularly susceptible to global geopolitical events
- such as terrorist attacks, other acts of violence or acts of war or hostility or the outbreak of infectious diseases
- Co-investing in properties or businesses, including our investments in BetMGM North America Venture and MGM Osaka, decreases our ability to manage risk
- Our insurance coverage may not be adequate to cover all possible losses that our properties could suffer. In addition, our insurance costs may increase and we may not be able to obtain similar insurance coverage in the future
- Any failure to protect our intellectual property could have a negative impact on the value of our brand names and adversely affect our business
- A significant portion of our labor force is covered by collective bargaining agreements
- Our business is particularly sensitive to energy prices and a rise in energy prices could harm our operating results
- We may seek to expand through investments in other businesses and properties or through alliances or acquisitions, and we may also seek to divest some of our properties and other assets, any of which may be unsuccessful
- Our operational efforts to expand our digital business in new geographic markets may not be successful
- The failure to maintain the integrity of our information and other systems or customer information could result in damage to our reputation, subject us to fines, payment of damages, lawsuits and restrictions on our use of data
- We are subject to risks related to corporate social responsibility and reputation
- We are subject to risks and costs related to climate change
- Water scarcity could negatively impact our operations
- Our businesses are subject to extensive regulation and the cost of compliance or failure to comply with such regulations may adversely affect our business and results of operations
- Any violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act or any other similar anti-corruption laws could have a negative impact on us
- If the jurisdictions in which we operate increase taxes and fees, including gaming taxes, our results could be adversely affected
- The future recognition of our foreign tax credit deferred tax asset is uncertain, and the amount of valuation allowance we may apply against such deferred tax asset may change materially in future periods
- We face risks related to pending claims that have been
- We have agreed not to have any interest or involvement in gaming businesses in China, Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan, other than through MGM China
- The Macau government can (i) terminate MGM Grand Paradise’s concession under certain circumstances without compensating MGM Grand Paradise
- We are subject to risks associated with doing business outside of the United States
- Conflicts of interest may arise because certain of our directors and officers are also directors of MGM China
- the holding company for MGM Grand Paradise which owns and operates MGM Macau and MGM Cotai