Moderna (MRNA)
Health Care · $102B market cap · SEC CIK 0001682852
ahead of 17% of the S&P 500 · #51 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Feb 11, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting −$2.27 in earnings per share.
52-week range $22.28 to $280.80. 11% below its 52-week high and 1026% above its low.
The case for MRNA
- Holds more cash ($2.6B) than long-term debt ($590M).
- Revenue growing 13.1% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 19.3% a year over five years.
- Current assets cover the near-term bills 3.6 times over.
- Up 996.2% over the past year.
The case against
- Losing money over the last year: net margin −110.5%, return on equity −38%.
- Burned $2.1B of free cash in FY2025.
- Carries $590M of long-term debt with no operating cash flow to pay it down.
- Priced at 40.5× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
- Free-cash-flow yield of −2.0% is lower than 100% of Health Care companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 15 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 81 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 7 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 92 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 15 |
- It is losing money, so it has no P/E; that counts against value rather than being skipped.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +13.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +19.3% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.9B (−40%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$2.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −106% |
| Of profit | n/a |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 39% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | −116% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | −110.0% → −145.2% → −110.5% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, more cash than debt
| Cash | $2.6B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $590M |
| Net cash | $2.0B |
| Years to repay | no cash flow |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Hard to say: no earnings to price
| P/E | n/a (a loss) |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 34× |
| P/FCF | no free cash flow |
| EV / EBITDA | 119.4× |
| Price / sales | 40.5× |
It has no earnings to price. Its free cash flow is negative, which counts against it.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Moderna's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $1.9B | $3.2B | $6.8B | $19.3B | $18.5B |
| Change on the year | −40% | −53% | −64% | +4% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$2.1B | −$4.1B | −$3.8B | $4.6B | $13.3B |
| Of revenue | −106% | −125% | −56% | 24% | 72% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | −158.1% | −121.9% | −61.9% | 48.9% | 72.0% |
| Net margin | −145.2% | −110.0% | −68.8% | 43.4% | 66.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $2.6B | $1.9B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $6.8B |
| Long-term debt | $590M | $0 | — | — | — |
| Net cash (debt) | $2.0B | $1.9B | — | — | — |
What Moderna says it does
Moderna is a pioneer and leader in the field of mRNA medicine. Through the advancement of our technology platform, we are reimagining how medicines are made to transform how we treat and prevent diseases. Since our founding, our mRNA platform has enabled the development of vaccine and therapeutic candidates across infectious disease, oncology, rare disease and more. With a global team and a unique culture, driven by our values and mindsets, our mission is to deliver the greatest possible impact to people through mRNA medicines. We currently have three commercial products—Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (our COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA (our vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)). mNEXSPIKE, which we launched commercially in the third quarter of 2025, is now our leading product in the U.S. retail channel. In 2025, we achieved total revenue of $1.9 billion, largely from sales of our COVID vaccines. Beyond our commercial products, we…