Moderna (MRNA)
Health Care · $73.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0001682852
fundamentals score out of 100
Next reports on Nov 4, 2026, before the open, with analysts expecting $-1.30 in earnings per share.
The case for MRNA
- Holds more cash ($2.6B) than long-term debt ($590M).
- Has compounded revenue at 19.3% a year over five years.
- Current assets cover the near-term bills 2.3 times over.
- Within 1% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.
- Up 585.2% over the past year.
The case against
- Losing money over the last year: net margin -141.4%, return on equity -39%.
- Revenue fell 27.6% year over year.
- Burned $2.1B of free cash in FY2025.
- Carries $590M of long-term debt with no operating cash flow to pay it down.
- Priced at 32.8× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
- Free-cash-flow yield of -2.8% is lower than 100% of Health Care companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings, sales, assets and cash | 11 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 54 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 7 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 96 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 15 |
- It is losing money, so it has no P/E; that counts against value rather than being skipped.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
Key numbers
| Price / earnings | n/a |
|---|---|
| Price / book | 4.11× |
| Price / sales | 32.8× |
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -27.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | — |
| Gross margin | 36% |
| Operating margin | -149% |
| Net margin | -141% |
| Return on equity | -39% |
| Debt / equity | 0.09× |
| Current ratio | 2.29 |
| Dividend yield | none |
| Beta | 1.22 |
| 52-week range | $22.28 – $176.86 |
| Position in that range | 100% of the way up |
| 3-month return | +170.4% |
| 1-year return | +585.2% |
Five years of financials, as filed
Pulled from Moderna's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are derived from the rows above.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $3.2B | $6.8B | $19.3B | $18.5B |
| Operating income | -$3.1B | -$3.9B | -$4.2B | $9.4B | $13.3B |
| Net income | -$2.8B | -$3.6B | -$4.7B | $8.4B | $12.2B |
| Operating cash flow | -$1.9B | -$3.0B | -$3.1B | $5.0B | $13.6B |
| Capital expenditure | $192M | $1.1B | $707M | $400M | $284M |
| Total assets | $12.3B | $14.1B | $18.4B | $25.9B | $24.7B |
| Total liabilities | $3.7B | $3.2B | $4.6B | $6.7B | $10.5B |
| Shareholder equity | $8.7B | $10.9B | $13.9B | $19.1B | $14.1B |
| Cash | $2.6B | $1.9B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $6.8B |
| Long-term debt | $590M | $0 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | -$2.1B | -$4.1B | -$3.8B | $4.6B | $13.3B |
| Operating margin | -158.1% | -121.9% | -61.9% | 48.9% | 72.0% |
| Net margin | -145.2% | -110.0% | -68.8% | 43.4% | 66.1% |
| Diluted shares | 389M | 384M | 382M | 416M | 431M |
Share count is down 9.7% over 4 years. Buybacks have been shrinking the pie.
What Moderna says it does
Moderna is a pioneer and leader in the field of mRNA medicine. Through the advancement of our technology platform, we are reimagining how medicines are made to transform how we treat and prevent diseases. Since our founding, our mRNA platform has enabled the development of vaccine and therapeutic candidates across infectious disease, oncology, rare disease and more. With a global team and a unique culture, driven by our values and mindsets, our mission is to deliver the greatest possible impact to people through mRNA medicines. We currently have three commercial products—Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (our COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA (our vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)). mNEXSPIKE, which we launched commercially in the third quarter of 2025, is now our leading product in the U.S. retail channel. In 2025, we achieved total revenue of $1.9 billion, largely from sales of our COVID vaccines. Beyond our commercial products, we…
Risk factors MRNA lists in its 10-K
- U.S. Manufacturing Capabilities Expansion
- $1.5 Billion Five-Year Credit Facility
- Propionic acidemia (PA) therapeutic
- Methylmalonic acidemia (MMA) therapeutic
- Program-specific expenses by therapeutic area
- Other research and development expenses
- Selling, general and administrative expenses
- Critical accounting policies and significant judgments and estimates
- Recently issued accounting pronouncements
- Contractual obligations and commitments
- Report of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm
- Opinion on the Financial Statements
- Provisions for returns on product sales
- How We Addressed the Matter in Our Audit