Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)
Consumer Discretionary · $8.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0001513761
ahead of 27% of the S&P 500 · #34 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Mar 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting −$0.11 in earnings per share.
52-week range $13.63 to $25.13. 26% below its 52-week high and 36% above its low.
The case for NCLH
- Cheap for its growth: 10.2× earnings, where 25%+ a year of growth would justify about 46×.
- Earns 32% back on shareholder equity.
- Earnings per share up 37.3%.
- Has compounded revenue at 50.3% a year over five years.
- Price/sales of 0.8× is lower than 85% of Consumer Discretionary companies.
The case against
- Burned $1.2B of free cash in FY2025.
- Long-term debt of $13.7B would take 7 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 1.5 times.
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 4.8% this year against 50.3% a year over five.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.23).
- Swings harder than the market (beta 1.94).
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 55 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 83 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 30 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 44 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 17 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +4.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +50.3% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $9.8B (+4%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$1.2B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −12% |
| Of profit | −276% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 41% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 14% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 9.6% → 4.3% → 8.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $210M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $13.7B |
| Net debt | $13.5B |
| Years to repay | 6.6 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Mixed: cheap on earnings, dear on cash
| P/E | 10.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 46× |
| P/FCF | no free cash flow |
| Forward P/E | 10.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.1× |
At 10.2× earnings it trades well below the 46× that 25%+ a year of growth would justify. Its free cash flow is negative, which counts against it.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $9.8B | $9.5B | $8.5B | $4.8B | $648M |
| Change on the year | +4% | +11% | +77% | +648% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$1.2B | $839M | −$745M | −$1.6B | −$3.2B |
| Of revenue | −12% | 9% | −9% | −32% | −497% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 15.9% | 15.5% | 10.9% | −32.0% | −393.9% |
| Net margin | 4.3% | 9.6% | 1.9% | −46.9% | −695.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $210M | $191M | $402M | $947M | $1.5B |
| Long-term debt | $13.7B | $11.8B | $12.3B | $12.6B | $11.6B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$13.5B | −$11.6B | −$11.9B | −$11.7B | −$10.1B |
What Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings says it does
History and Development of the Company Norwegian commenced operations from Miami, Florida in 1966, launching the modern cruise industry by offering weekly departures from Miami, Florida to destinations in the Caribbean. In February 2011, NCLH, a Bermuda limited company, was formed. In January 2013, NCLH completed its initial public offering and the ordinary shares of NCLC were exchanged for the ordinary shares of NCLH, and NCLH became the owner of 100% of the ordinary shares and parent company of NCLC. In November 2014, we completed the acquisition of PCI. In late 2023, in response to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (“OECD”)’s BEPS 2.0 Pillar 2 global tax reform, the Company restructured its organizational structure by realigning many of its operations across its three different brands into a single jurisdiction, Bermuda. In connection with the reorganization, among other steps, certain NCLH subsidiaries…