Nike (NKE)
Consumer Discretionary · $57.6B market cap · SEC CIK 0000320187
ahead of 4% of the S&P 500 · #45 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Dec 16, 2026, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.38 in earnings per share.
52-week range $31.97 to $69.14. 44% below its 52-week high and 21% above its low.
The case for NKE
- Holds more cash ($7.6B) than long-term debt ($5.9B).
- Return on equity of 21%.
- Current assets cover the near-term bills 2.1 times over.
- Pays a modest 1.4% dividend.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 18.6× earnings, where 0% a year of growth plus a 1.4% dividend would justify about 10×.
- Down 34.7% over the past year.
- Revenue was flat on the year (−1.2%).
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 44% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 20 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 17 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 44 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 23 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 60 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, flat
| Last 12 months | −1.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +0.8% a year |
| FY2026 revenue | $46.4B (0%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? A little
| FY2026 free cash flow | $2.2B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 5% |
| Of profit | 70% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 43% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 8% |
| Net margin, FY25 → FY26 → now | 7.0% → 6.7% → 6.7% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, more cash than debt
| Cash | $7.6B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $5.9B |
| Net cash | $1.6B |
| Years to repay | 2.1 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 18.6× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 10× |
| P/FCF | 26.4× |
| Forward P/E | 29.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.0× |
At 18.6× earnings it trades well above the 10× that 0% a year of growth plus a 1.4% dividend would justify. At 26.4× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Nike's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $46.4B | $46.3B | $51.4B | $51.2B | $46.7B |
| Change on the year | 0% | −10% | 0% | +10% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.2B | $3.3B | $6.6B | $4.9B | $4.4B |
| Of revenue | 5% | 7% | 13% | 10% | 9% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 42.9% | 42.7% | 44.6% | 43.5% | 46.0% |
| Net margin | 6.7% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 12.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $7.6B | $7.5B | $9.9B | $7.4B | $8.6B |
| Long-term debt | $5.9B | $8.0B | $7.9B | $8.9B | $8.9B |
| Net cash (debt) | $1.6B | −$497M | $2.0B | −$1.5B | −$346M |
What Nike says it does
NIKE, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 under the laws of the State of Oregon. As used in this Annual Report on Form 10-K (this "Annual Report"), the terms "we," "us," "our," "NIKE" and the "Company" refer to NIKE, Inc. and its predecessors, subsidiaries and affiliates, collectively, unless the context indicates otherwise. Our principal business activity is the design, development and worldwide marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. NIKE is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel in the world. We sell our products through NIKE Direct operations, which are comprised of both NIKE-owned retail stores and sales through our digital platforms (also referred to as "NIKE Brand Digital") and to wholesale accounts, which include a mix of independent distributors, licensees and sales representatives in nearly all countries around the world. We also offer interactive consumer services and…
Risk factors NKE lists in its 10-K
- Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements and Analyst Reports
- Global economic conditions have in the past had and could in the future have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results and financial condition
- Our products, services and experiences face intense competition
- We may be adversely affected by the financial health of our wholesale customers
- Climate change, extreme weather conditions and disasters may have an adverse impact on our business and results of operations
- Our financial condition and results of operations have been, and could in the future be, adversely affected by a pandemic, epidemic or other public health emergency
- Failure to maintain our reputation, brand image and culture could negatively impact our business
- If we are unable to anticipate consumer preferences and develop new products, we may not be able to maintain or increase our revenues and profits
- We rely on technical innovation and high-quality products to compete
- Our business is affected by seasonality, which could result in fluctuations in our operating results
- Failure to continue to obtain or maintain high-quality endorsers of our products could harm our business
- Our NIKE Direct operations have required and will continue to require a substantial investment and commitment of resources and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties
- We are subject to the risk our licensees may not generate expected sales or maintain the value of our brands
- Consolidation of retailers or concentration of retail market share among a few retailers has increased and may continue to increase and concentrate our credit risk and impair our ability to sell products
- If our counterparty financial institutions default on their obligations to us or fail, we may incur significant losses
- We rely on a concentrated base of contract manufacturers to supply a significant portion of our footwear products
- The success of our business depends, in part, on high-quality employees, including key personnel as well as our ability to maintain our workplace culture and values
- The market for prime real estate is competitive
- Our business operations and financial performance could be adversely affected by changes in our relationship with our workforce or changes to United States or foreign employment regulations
- Our international operations involve inherent risks which could result in harm to our business
- Our products are subject to risks associated with overseas sourcing, manufacturing and financing
- Our success depends on our global distribution facilities
- We are subject to a complex array of laws and regulations and litigation and other legal and regulatory proceedings, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations
- Failure to adequately protect or enforce our intellectual property rights could adversely affect our business
- We are subject to data security and privacy risks that could negatively affect our results, operations or reputation
- We could be subject to changes in tax rates, adoption of new tax laws or regulations, or changes in the interpretations thereof, additional tax liabilities or increased volatility in our effective tax rate
- Failure of our contractors or our licensees' contractors to comply with our code of conduct, local laws and other standards could harm our business
- Our financial results may be adversely affected if substantial investments in businesses and operations fail to produce expected returns
- The sale of a large number of shares of common stock by our principal shareholder could depress the market price of our common stock
- Changes in our credit ratings or macroeconomic conditions may affect our liquidity, increasing borrowing costs and limiting our financing options
- If our internal controls are ineffective, our operating results could be adversely affected
- If our estimates or judgments relating to our critical accounting estimates prove to be incorrect, our operating results could be adversely affected
- Anti-takeover provisions may impair an acquisition of the Company or reduce the price of our common stock
- We have in the past failed and may in the future fail to meet market expectations, which has caused and could in the future cause the price of our stock to decline