NRG Energy (NRG)
Utilities · $20.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0001013871
ahead of 16% of the S&P 500 · #26 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 22, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.23 in earnings per share.
52-week range $79.65 to $189.96. 49% below its 52-week high and 22% above its low.
The case for NRG
- Revenue growing 12.8% year over year.
- Earnings per share up 62.1%.
- Pays a 3.3% dividend while you wait.
- Has compounded revenue at 27.6% a year over five years.
- Price/sales of 0.6× is lower than 100% of Utilities companies.
- Free-cash-flow yield of 3.7% is higher than 96% of Utilities companies.
The case against
- Down 43.5% over the past year.
- Long-term debt of $16.4B would take 9 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 2.0 times.
- Net margin of 2.6% leaves very little room for error.
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 12.8% this year against 27.6% a year over five.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.97).
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 48 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 90 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 22 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 14 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 22 |
- Equity is a sliver of assets, so return on assets stands in for return on equity, and price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +12.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +27.6% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $30.7B (+9%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? A little
| FY2025 free cash flow | $766M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 2% |
| Of profit | 89% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 20% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 6% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 4.0% → 2.8% → 2.6% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $4.7B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $16.4B |
| Net debt | $11.7B |
| Years to repay | 8.6 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 24.1× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 25× |
| Forward P/E | 9.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.4× |
At 24.1× earnings it trades close to the 25× that 8%+ a year of growth plus a 3.3% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from NRG Energy's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $30.7B | $28.1B | $28.8B | $31.5B | $27.0B |
| Change on the year | +9% | −2% | −9% | +17% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $766M | $1.8B | −$819M | −$7.0M | $224M |
| Of revenue | 2% | 7% | −3% | 0% | 1% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 6.0% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 6.4% | 12.4% |
| Net margin | 2.8% | 4.0% | −0.7% | 3.9% | 8.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $4.7B | $966M | $541M | $430M | $250M |
| Long-term debt | $16.4B | $10.9B | $10.9B | $8.1B | $8.1B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$11.7B | −$9.9B | −$10.4B | −$7.7B | −$7.8B |
Filings
The text of this 10-K could not be read automatically. The original is linked below.