NVR (NVR)
Consumer Discretionary · $16.0B market cap · SEC CIK 0000906163
ahead of 27% of the S&P 500 · #35 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Jan 26, 2027, before the open, with analysts expecting $97.37 in earnings per share.
52-week range $5,501 to $8,200. 26% below its 52-week high and 10% above its low.
The case for NVR
- Earns 30% back on shareholder equity.
- Barely leveraged. Debt is 0.26× equity.
- Current assets cover the near-term bills 2.9 times over.
The case against
- Revenue fell 11.0% year over year.
- Earnings per share down 20.4%.
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 26% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 25 points over the past year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 46 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 28 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 53 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 34 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 87 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, shrinking
| Last 12 months | −11.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +6.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.3B (−2%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 11% |
| Of profit | 82% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 22% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 15% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 16.0% → 13.0% → 11.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, little debt
| Cash | $2.0B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
| Debt / equity | 0.26× |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 15.3× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 13× |
| P/FCF | 14.6× |
| Forward P/E | 17.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.1× |
At 15.3× earnings it trades close to the 13× that 3% a year of growth would justify. At 14.6× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from NVR's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $10.3B | $10.5B | $9.5B | $10.5B | $9.0B |
| Change on the year | −2% | +11% | −10% | +18% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $1.2B |
| Of revenue | 11% | 13% | 15% | 18% | 14% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 13.0% | 16.0% | 16.7% | 16.4% | 13.8% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $2.0B | $2.7B | $3.2B | $2.6B | $2.6B |
What NVR says it does
NVR, Inc., a Virginia corporation, was formed in 1980 as NVHomes, Inc. Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are primarily constructed on a pre-sold basis. To more fully serve customers of our homebuilding operations, we also operate a mortgage banking and title services business. We conduct our homebuilding activities directly. Our mortgage banking operations are operated primarily through a wholly owned subsidiary, NVR Mortgage Finance, Inc. (“NVRM”). Unless the context otherwise requires, references to “NVR”, “we”, “us” or “our” include NVR, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States. We operate in thirty-seven metropolitan areas in sixteen states, and Washington, D.C. Our homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and…
Risk factors NVR lists in its 10-K
- An economic downturn or decline in economic conditions could adversely affect our business and our results of operations
- Interest rate movements, inflation and other economic factors can negatively impact our business
- If the market value of our inventory or controlled lot position declines, our profit could decrease and we may incur losses
- We face competition in our homebuilding and mortgage banking operations
- Any inability to secure and control an adequate inventory of lots could adversely impact our operations
- A shortage of building materials or labor, or increases in materials or labor costs may adversely impact our operations
- We rely on subcontractors to construct our homes. The failure of our subcontractors to properly construct our homes may be costly
- Product liability litigation and warranty claims may adversely impact our operations
- We are subject to litigation proceedings that could harm our business if an unfavorable ruling were to occur
- If the underwriting quality of our mortgage originations is found to be deficient, our profit could decrease and we may incur losses
- We may be subject to claims on mortgage loans sold to third parties
- The loss of key personnel could adversely impact our business
- Cybersecurity incidents affecting our electronic and other confidential information could expose us to liability and materially adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations
- Volatility in the credit and capital markets may impact our ability to access necessary financing
- Our current indebtedness may impact our future operations
- Government regulations and environmental matters could negatively affect our operations
- Increased regulation of the mortgage industry could harm our future sales and earnings
- Health epidemics could have an adverse impact on our business and operations, and the markets, states and local communities in which we operate
- Weather-related and other events beyond our control may adversely impact our operations
- Our continued success is dependent on positive perceptions of us and our brands which, if eroded, could adversely affect our business and our relationships with our customers