Old Dominion (ODFL)
Industrials · $34.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0000878927
ahead of 30% of the S&P 500 · #57 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Feb 2, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.52 in earnings per share.
52-week range $126.01 to $252.03. 33% below its 52-week high and 33% above its low.
The case for ODFL
- Generated $955M of free cash flow in FY2025, 17% of revenue.
- Holds more cash ($120M) than long-term debt ($20.0M).
- Return on equity of 25%.
- Carries essentially no debt.
- Gross margin of 89% absorbs cost shocks.
- Net margin of 19% is wider than 85% of Industrials companies.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 31.4× earnings, where 6% a year of growth would justify about 17×.
- Revenue was flat on the year (−0.6%).
- Priced at 6.1× sales with revenue falling 0.6%.
- The price trend is weak (41/100): +22.2% over a year, −19.6% over three months, 33% below its 52-week high.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 21 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 37 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 86 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 41 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 60 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, flat
| Last 12 months | −0.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +6.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.5B (−5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $955M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 17% |
| Of profit | 93% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 89% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 26% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 20.4% → 18.6% → 19.4% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, more cash than debt
| Cash | $120M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $20.0M |
| Net cash | $100M |
| Years to repay | 0.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 31.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 17× |
| P/FCF | 35.8× |
| Forward P/E | 26.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 18.7× |
At 31.4× earnings it trades well above the 17× that 6% a year of growth would justify. At 35.8× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Old Dominion's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $5.5B | $5.8B | $5.9B | $6.3B | $5.3B |
| Change on the year | −5% | −1% | −6% | +19% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $955M | $888M | $812M | $916M | $663M |
| Of revenue | 17% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 13% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 24.8% | 26.6% | 28.0% | 29.4% | 26.5% |
| Net margin | 18.6% | 20.4% | 21.1% | 22.0% | 19.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $120M | $109M | $434M | $186M | $463M |
| Long-term debt | $20.0M | $40.0M | $60.0M | $80.0M | $99.9M |
| Net cash (debt) | $100M | $68.7M | $374M | $106M | $363M |
Filings
The text of this 10-K could not be read automatically. The original is linked below.