O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Consumer Discretionary · $72.0B market cap · SEC CIK 0000898173
ahead of 17% of the S&P 500 · #41 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Feb 2, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.79 in earnings per share.
52-week range $82.59 to $102.46. 13% below its 52-week high and 8% above its low.
The case for ORLY
- Revenue growing 8.7% year over year.
- Earns 16% a year on everything it owns (return on assets).
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.53).
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 26.6× earnings, where 0% a year of growth would justify about 8×.
- Owes more than it owns: shareholder equity is −$763M, usually the result of buybacks funded with debt. ROE and price-to-book mean little here.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.77).
- The price trend is weak (38/100): −7.5% over a year, −2.6% over three months, 13% below its 52-week high.
- Long-term debt of $6.0B against $194M of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 7 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 42 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 61 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 38 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 66 |
- Shareholder equity is negative, so return on equity, price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +8.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.9% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $17.8B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.6B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 9% |
| Of profit | 63% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 52% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 20% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 14.3% → 14.3% → 14.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $194M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $6.0B |
| Net debt | $5.8B |
| Years to repay | 2.2 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 26.6× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 8× |
| P/FCF | 45.2× |
| Forward P/E | 24.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 18.5× |
At 26.6× earnings it trades well above the 8× that 0% a year of growth would justify. At 45.2× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from O'Reilly Automotive's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $17.8B | $16.7B | $15.8B | $14.4B | $13.3B |
| Change on the year | +6% | +6% | +10% | +8% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.6B | $2.8B |
| Of revenue | 9% | 12% | 13% | 18% | 21% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 51.6% | 51.2% | 51.3% | 51.2% | 52.7% |
| Operating margin | 19.5% | 19.5% | 20.2% | 20.5% | 21.9% |
| Net margin | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 16.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $194M | $130M | $279M | $109M | $362M |
| Long-term debt | $6.0B | $5.5B | $5.6B | $4.4B | $3.8B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$5.8B | −$5.4B | −$5.3B | −$4.3B | −$3.5B |
What O'Reilly Automotive says it does
INFORMATION Unless otherwise indicated, “we,” “us,” “our,” and similar terms, as well as references to the “Company,” refer to O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. and its Subsidiaries. O’Reilly is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories across North America, selling our products to both do-it-yourself (“DIY”) and professional service provider customers, our “dual market strategy.” The business was founded in 1957 by Charles F. O’Reilly and his son, Charles H. “Chub’’ O’Reilly, Sr., and initially operated from a single store in Springfield, Missouri. Our common stock has traded on The Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “ORLY” since April 22, 1993. On June 10, 2025, the Company completed a 15-for-1 forward stock split of our common stock. All share and per share information, including share-based compensation, in the current and comparable periods throughout this…
Risk factors ORLY lists in its 10-K
- The automotive aftermarket business is highly competitive, and we may have to risk our capital to remain competitive, all of which could adversely impact our business, results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows
- Our business is sensitive to global, national, and regional economic and weather conditions and natural disasters that could impact our costs and sales
- A change in the relationship with any of our key suppliers, the limited supply or unavailability of key products, supply chain disruptions, or changes in trade policies could affect our financial health
- Business interruptions in our distribution centers or other facilities may affect our store hours, stability of systems we rely on, and/or availability and distribution of merchandise, which may affect our business
- Failure to protect our brand and reputation could have a material adverse effect on our brand name, business, results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows
- Risks associated with international operations could result in additional costs and inefficiencies
- Risks related to us and unanticipated fluctuations in our quarterly operating results could affect our stock price
- The market price of our common stock may be volatile and could expose us to securities class action litigation
- Our debt levels could adversely affect our cash flow and prevent us from fulfilling our obligations
- A downgrade in our credit rating would impact our cost of capital and could impact the market value of our unsecured senior notes, as well as limit our access to attractive supplier financing programs
- Damage, failure, or interruptions of information technology systems could adversely affect our business operations and results
- A breach of customer, supplier, Team Member, or Company information could damage our reputation or result in substantial additional costs or litigation
- We cannot assure future growth will be achieved
- In order to be successful, we will need to attract, retain, and motivate qualified employees
- Risks associated with future acquisitions may not lead to expected growth and could result in increased costs and inefficiencies
- Litigation, governmental proceedings, environmental, employment, and tax legislation and regulations may affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows