United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
Industrials · $39.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0000100517
ahead of 83% of the S&P 500 · #8 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 18, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.18 in earnings per share.
52-week range $84.64 to $138.77. 13% below its 52-week high and 42% above its low.
The case for UAL
- Cheap for its growth: 10.9× earnings, where 25% a year of growth would justify about 45×.
- Revenue growing 12.3% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 30.9% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 22%.
- Gross margin of 59% absorbs cost shocks.
- Price/sales of 0.6× is lower than 99% of Industrials companies.
The case against
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 12.3% this year against 30.9% a year over five.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.75).
- Net margin of 5% is thinner than 87% of Industrials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 95 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 82 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 38 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 61 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 45 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +12.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +30.9% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $59.1B (+4%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? A little
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.6B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 4% |
| Of profit | 76% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 59% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 8% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 5.5% → 5.7% → 5.5% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $5.9B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $17.2B |
| Net debt | $11.2B |
| Years to repay | 2.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 10.9× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 45× |
| P/FCF | 15.3× |
| Forward P/E | 9.6× |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.4× |
At 10.9× earnings it trades well below the 45× that 25% a year of growth would justify. At 15.3× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from United Airlines Holdings's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $59.1B | $57.1B | $53.7B | $45.0B | $24.6B |
| Change on the year | +4% | +6% | +19% | +82% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.6B | $3.8B | −$260M | $1.2B | −$40.0M |
| Of revenue | 4% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.2% | −4.1% |
| Net margin | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.6% | −8.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $5.9B | $8.8B | $6.1B | $7.2B | $18.3B |
| Long-term debt | $17.2B | $21.7B | $25.1B | $28.3B | $30.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$11.2B | −$12.9B | −$19.0B | −$21.1B | −$12.1B |
What United Airlines Holdings says it does
Overview United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, "UAL" or the "Company") is a holding company and its wholly-owned subsidiary is United Airlines, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, "United"). United's shared purpose is "Connecting People. Uniting the World." United has the most comprehensive route network among North American carriers, including U.S. mainland hubs in Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, New York/Newark, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. As UAL consolidates United for financial statement purposes, disclosures that relate to activities of United also apply to UAL, unless otherwise noted. United's operating revenues and operating expenses comprise nearly 100% of UAL's revenues and operating expenses. In addition, United comprises approximately the entire balance of UAL's assets, liabilities and operating cash flows. When appropriate, UAL and United are named…
Risk factors UAL lists in its 10-K
- We may not be successful in executing elements of our strategic operating plan, which may have a material adverse impact on our business, financial results and market capitalization
- The global airline industry is highly competitive and susceptible to price discounting and changes in capacity, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results and financial condition
- Our MileagePlus loyalty program plays a significant role in our business, and unfavorable developments affecting the program could adversely affect our business and results of operations
- Unfavorable economic and political conditions, in the United States and globally, may have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results and financial condition
- provision of services to the Company, could have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, operating results and financial condition
- Geopolitical conflict, terrorist attacks or security events may adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations
- Managing our reputation and brand image is critical to our business success and if our reputation or brand image is damaged, it could adversely affect our business or financial results
- Disruptions to our regional network and United Express flights provided by third-party regional carriers could adversely affect our business, operating results and financial condition
- Increasing privacy, data security and cybersecurity obligations or a significant data breach may adversely affect the Company's business
- Increased use of social media platforms present risks and challenges
- If we are unable to recruit, hire, develop or retain skilled personnel, including our senior management team or other key employees, our business could be adversely affected
- The airline industry is subject to extensive government regulation, which imposes significant costs and may adversely impact our business, operating results and financial condition
- Current or future litigation and regulatory actions, or failure to comply with the terms of any settlement, order or agreement relating to these actions, could have a material adverse impact on the Company
- We are subject to many forms of environmental regulation and liability as well as risks associated with climate change and may incur substantial costs as a result
- High and/or volatile fuel prices or significant disruptions in the supply of aircraft fuel could have a material adverse impact on the Company's strategic plans, operating results, financial condition and liquidity
- The Company has a significant amount of financial leverage from fixed obligations and insufficient liquidity may have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial condition and business
- Agreements governing our debt include financial and other covenants. Failure to comply with these covenants could result in events of default
- The Company may never realize the full value of its intangible assets or its long-lived assets causing it to record impairments that may negatively affect its financial condition and operating results
- The price of our common stock may fluctuate significantly
- The Company's operating results fluctuate due to seasonality and other factors associated with the airline industry, many of which are beyond the Company's control
- Increases in insurance costs or inadequate insurance coverage may materially and adversely impact our business, operating results and financial condition
- We cannot guarantee that our share repurchase program will enhance long-term stockholder value