United Parcel Service (UPS)
Industrials · $93.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0001090727
ahead of 56% of the S&P 500 · #34 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 25, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.79 in earnings per share.
52-week range $90.84 to $122.41. 9% below its 52-week high and 22% above its low.
The case for UPS
- Earns 29% back on shareholder equity.
- Pays a 4.3% dividend while you wait.
- Reasonably priced for its growth: 21.1× earnings, where 12% a year of growth plus a 4.3% dividend would justify about 33×.
- Gross margin of 81% absorbs cost shocks.
- Price/sales of 1.0× is lower than 88% of Industrials companies.
The case against
- Earnings per share fell 19.7%.
- Dividend takes 123% of earnings, leaving little cushion.
- Net margin of 5% is thinner than 91% of Industrials companies.
- Revenue grew only 2.1%, roughly the pace of inflation.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 84 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 29 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 48 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 65 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 72 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +2.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +0.9% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $88.7B (−3%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $4.8B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 5% |
| Of profit | 86% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 81% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 7% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 6.3% → 6.3% → 4.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $5.9B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $23.6B |
| Net debt | $17.7B |
| Years to repay | 2.8 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 21.1× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 33× |
| P/FCF | 19.5× |
| Forward P/E | 13.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.8× |
At 21.1× earnings it trades below the 33× that 12% a year of growth plus a 4.3% dividend would justify. At 19.5× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from United Parcel Service's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $88.7B | $91.1B | $91.0B | $100B | $97.3B |
| Change on the year | −3% | 0% | −9% | +3% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $4.8B | $6.2B | $5.1B | $9.3B | $10.8B |
| Of revenue | 5% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 11% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 13.2% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 13.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $5.9B | $6.1B | $3.2B | $5.6B | $10.3B |
| Long-term debt | $23.6B | $21.0B | $22.0B | $17.3B | $19.8B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$17.7B | −$14.9B | −$18.8B | −$11.7B | −$9.5B |
What United Parcel Service says it does
Overview UPS, founded in 1907, is a global package delivery and logistics provider. We offer a broad range of industry-leading products and services through our extensive global presence, serving over 200 countries and territories. Our services include transportation and delivery through our integrated air and ground network, distribution, contract logistics, ocean freight, airfreight, customs brokerage and insurance. In 2025, we delivered an average of 20.8 million packages per day, totaling 5.2 billion packages during the year. Total revenue in 2025 was $88.7 billion. Strategy We are continuing to execute our Customer First, People Led, Innovation Driven strategy, which focuses on growing in the parts of our market that value our end-to-end solutions, including healthcare, business-to-business ("B2B"), small- and medium-sized businesses ("SMBs"), and international. Customer First is about reducing friction in the customer experience…
Risk factors UPS lists in its 10-K
- Changes or continued uncertainty in general economic conditions, in the U.S. and internationally, may adversely affect us
- Our industry continues to rapidly evolve. We expect to continue to face significant competition, which could materially adversely affect us
- Failure to attract or retain qualified employees could materially adversely affect us
- Strikes, work stoppages or slowdowns by our employees could materially adversely affect us
- A significant cybersecurity incident, increased data protection regulations, or other information technology related risks, could materially adversely affect us
- Failure to maintain our brand image and corporate reputation could materially adversely affect us
- The effects of global climate change could materially adversely affect us
- Severe weather or other natural or man-made disasters could materially adversely affect us
- Economic, political, or social developments and other risks associated with international operations could materially adversely affect us
- Inability to effectively integrate acquired businesses and realize the anticipated benefits of any acquisitions, joint ventures or strategic alliances could materially adversely affect us
- Changing fuel and energy prices, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and interruptions in supplies of these commodities could materially adversely affect us
- Changes in foreign currency exchange rates or interest rates may have a material adverse effect on us
- Our business requires significant capital and other investments; if we do not accurately forecast our future investment needs, we could be materially adversely affected
- Employee health and retiree health and pension benefit costs represent a significant expense to us; further cost increases could materially adversely affect us
- Insurance and claims expense could materially adversely affect us
- Changes in markets and our business plans have resulted, and may in the future result, in substantial impairments of the carrying value of our assets, thereby reducing our net income
- We may have significant additional tax liabilities that could materially adversely affect us
- Increasingly complex and stringent laws, regulations and policies could materially increase our operating costs
- Regulations related to climate change, including reporting obligations, could materially increase our operating costs
- We may be subject to various other claims and lawsuits that could result in significant expenditures which may materially adversely affect us