Waste Management (WM)
Industrials · $93.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0000823768
ahead of 59% of the S&P 500 · #33 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 26, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.14 in earnings per share.
52-week range $197.47 to $248.13. 4% below its 52-week high and 20% above its low.
The case for WM
- Earns 31% back on shareholder equity.
- Has compounded revenue at 10.6% a year over five years.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.38).
- Pays a modest 1.7% dividend.
The case against
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.82).
- Long-term debt of $22.2B against $201M of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 42 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 65 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 55 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 69 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 67 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +5.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +10.6% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $25.2B (+14%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.8B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 11% |
| Of profit | 104% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 41% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 18% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 12.4% → 10.7% → 11.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $201M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $22.2B |
| Net debt | $22.0B |
| Years to repay | 3.7 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 30.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 25× |
| P/FCF | 33.2× |
| Forward P/E | 26.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.0× |
At 30.4× earnings it trades above the 25× that 10% a year of growth plus a 1.7% dividend would justify. At 33.2× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Waste Management's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $25.2B | $22.1B | $20.4B | $19.7B | $17.9B |
| Change on the year | +14% | +8% | +4% | +10% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.8B | $2.2B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $2.3B |
| Of revenue | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 13% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 17.1% | 18.4% | 17.5% | 17.1% | 16.5% |
| Net margin | 10.7% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $201M | $414M | $458M | $351M | $118M |
| Long-term debt | $22.2B | $22.5B | $15.9B | $14.6B | $12.7B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$22.0B | −$22.1B | −$15.4B | −$14.2B | −$12.6B |
What Waste Management says it does
Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms “the Company,” “we,” “us” or “our” are used in this document, those terms refer to Waste Management, Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries and consolidated variable interest entities. When we use the term “WMI,” we are referring only to Waste Management, Inc., the parent holding company. WMI was incorporated in Oklahoma in 1987 under the name “USA Waste Services, Inc.” and was reincorporated as a Delaware company in 1995. In a 1998 merger, the Illinois-based waste services company formerly known as Waste Management, Inc. became a wholly-owned subsidiary of WMI and changed its name to Waste Management Holdings, Inc. (“WM Holdings”). At the same time, our parent holding company changed its name from USA Waste Services to Waste Management, Inc. Like WMI, WM Holdings is a holding company and all operations are…
Risk factors WM lists in its 10-K
- Financial Statements and Supplementary Data
- Business – Regulation – Recent Developments and Focus Areas in Policy and Regulation – PFAS
- Investment in Natural Gas Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Our revenues, earnings and cash flows fluctuate based on changes in commodity prices and demand and may fluctuate substantially without notice in the future
- — Changes to federal and state renewable fuel policies could affect the financial performance of our Renewable Energy segment
- Recent Developments and Focus Areas in Policy and Regulation – Renewable Energy