ConocoPhillips (COP)

Energy · $159B market cap · SEC CIK 0001163165

Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $3.41 in earnings per share.

52-week range $85.59 to $154.28. 12% below its 52-week high and 58% above its low.

The case for COP

• Cheap for its growth: 11.6× mid-cycle earnings, where 6%+ a year of growth plus a 4.0% dividend would justify about 23×.
• Revenue growing 13.3% year over year.
• Pays a 4.0% dividend while you wait.
• Has compounded revenue at 25.7% a year over five years.
• Return on equity of 18%.
• Moves less than the market (beta 0.19).

The case against

• Growth is slowing: revenue up 13.3% this year against 25.7% a year over five.
• Weakest against its peers: price/sales of 2.3× is higher than 55% of Energy companies.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Energy companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Capital spending is missing from its filings, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow stands in for the cash test, against a stricter bar.
• Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 21 Energy companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from ConocoPhillips's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

Risk factors COP lists in its 10-K

• Our operating results, our ability to execute on our strategy and the carrying value of our assets are exposed to the effects of volatile commodity prices or prolonged periods of low commodity prices
• The exploration and production of oil and gas is a highly competitive industry
• Our ability to successfully execute on our plans to reduce operational GHG emissions intensity is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and such reductions may be costly and challenging to achieve
• "Critical Accounting Estimates" section of Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
• Our ability to manage risk or influence outcomes in joint ventures may be constrained
• Our operations are subject to hazards and risks that require significant and continuous oversight
• We expect to continue to incur substantial capital expenditures and operating costs as a result of our compliance with existing and future environmental laws and regulations
• "—Company Response to Climate-Related Risks"
• Broader investor and societal attention to and efforts to address global climate change may limit who can do business with us or our access to financial markets and could subject us to litigation
• Political and economic developments could damage our operations and materially reduce our profitability and cash flows
• Political and economic factors in international markets could have a material adverse effect on us
• We may need additional capital in the future, and it may not be available on acceptable terms or at all
• Our business may be adversely affected by deterioration in the credit quality of, or defaults under our contracts with, third parties with whom we do business
• Our ability to execute our capital return program is subject to certain considerations
• There are substantial risks with any acquisitions or divestitures we have completed or that we may choose to undertake
• Our technologies, systems and networks are subject to cybersecurity threats

Filings

Other Energy companies