Phillips 66 (PSX)

Energy · $98.7B market cap · SEC CIK 0001534701

Next reports on Feb 2, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $11.20 in earnings per share.

52-week range $127.16 to $299.39. 16% below its 52-week high and 97% above its low.

The case for PSX

• Revenue up 27.5% on the year.
• Cheap for its growth: 7.2× mid-cycle earnings, where 6%+ a year of growth plus a 3.5% dividend would justify about 22×.
• Earns 41% back on shareholder equity.
• Pays a 3.5% dividend while you wait.
• Has compounded revenue at 15.6% a year over five years.
• Moves less than the market (beta 0.71).

The case against

• Net margin of 7% is thinner than 95% of Energy companies.
• Long-term debt of $18.7B against $1.1B of cash.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Energy companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Capital spending is missing from its filings, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow stands in for the cash test, against a stricter bar.
• Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 21 Energy companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Phillips 66's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

Risk factors PSX lists in its 10-K

• Margins for the products we produce are cyclical and volatile due to changes in market conditions, which are largely dependent on factors beyond our control, and directly affect our earnings, financial condition and cash flows
• The prices at which we buy our feedstocks are dependent on market conditions that are beyond our control, and changes in supply and demand for the feedstocks we process directly impact the results of our business
• We are subject to interruptions of supply and offtake, as well as increased costs, as a result of our reliance on third-party transportation of crude oil or other feedstocks, NGL, refined petroleum and renewable fuels products
• Our investments in joint ventures decrease our ability to manage risk
• Public health crises, epidemics and pandemics have had and could in the future have a material adverse effect on our business. Any future widespread health crises could materially and adversely impact our business
• Refining, midstream and marketing competitors that produce their own feedstocks, have more extensive retail outlets, or have greater financial resources may have a competitive advantage
• Volatility in market demand for our petrochemical and plastics products and midstream transportation services and the risk of overbuild in these industries may negatively impact the results of operations of our businesses
• Political and economic developments could affect our operations and materially reduce our profitability and cash flows
• Our business could be negatively impacted as a result of shareholder activism
• We are subject to a variety of legal proceedings and other claims arising out of our operations which may adversely impact our business and financial condition
• Climate change and severe weather may adversely affect our and our joint ventures’ facilities and ongoing operations
• There are certain environmental hazards and risks inherent in our operations that could adversely affect those operations and our financial results
• We expect to continue to incur substantial capital expenditures and operating costs to comply with existing and future environmental laws and regulations
• Factors associated with climate change legislation or regulation could result in increased operating costs, reduced demand for the refined petroleum products we produce and could otherwise have a material impact on our business
• Compliance with the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) could adversely affect our financial results
• Societal, technological, political and scientific developments around emissions and fuel efficiency may decrease demand for petroleum-based fuels
• Continuing political and social concerns about climate change and other environmental and social (E&S) matters may result in changes to our business and significant expenditures, including litigation-related expenses
• Cybersecurity incidents and other disruptions could compromise our information and systems resulting in disruption of operations, financial loss and reputational harm
• Uncertainty and illiquidity in credit and capital markets can impair our ability to obtain credit and financing on acceptable terms and can adversely affect the financial strength of our business partners
• Our published GHG emissions intensity reduction goals and other E&S targets we may set in the future could negatively impact our business
• Deterioration in our credit profile could increase our costs of borrowing money, limit our access to the capital markets and commercial credit, and could trigger co-venturer rights under joint venture arrangements
• The level of returns on pension and postretirement plan assets and the actuarial assumptions used for valuation purposes could affect our earnings and cash flows in future periods
• We may incur losses as a result of our forward contracts and derivative transactions
• We are subject to continuing contingent liabilities of ConocoPhillips following the separation. Further, ConocoPhillips has indemnified us for certain matters, but may not be able to satisfy its obligations to us in the future

Filings

Other Energy companies