Chevron (CVX)
Energy · $412B market cap · SEC CIK 0000093410
ahead of 82% of the S&P 500 · #6 of 21 in Energy
Next reports on Jan 28, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $5.72 in earnings per share.
52-week range $146.49 to $236.48. 11% below its 52-week high and 44% above its low.
The case for CVX
- Revenue up 20.8% on the year.
- Cheap for its growth: 11.4× mid-cycle earnings, where 6%+ a year of growth plus a 4.2% dividend would justify about 23×.
- Pays a 4.2% dividend while you wait.
- Has compounded revenue at 14.3% a year over five years.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.48).
The case against
- Long-term debt of $39.8B against $7.3B of cash.
- Weakest against its peers: free-cash-flow yield of 4.0% is lower than 80% of Energy companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Energy companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 62 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 61 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 58 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 74 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 77 |
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 21 Energy companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +20.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +14.3% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $189B (−7%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $16.6B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 9% |
| Of profit | 135% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 44% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 15% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 8.7% → 6.5% → 11.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $7.3B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $39.8B |
| Net debt | $32.5B |
| Years to repay | 1.2 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 15.3× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 11.4× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 23× |
| P/FCF | 24.8× |
| Forward P/E | 14.6× |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.4× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 11.4× those mid-cycle earnings (15.3× the latest year's) it trades well below the 23× that 6%+ a year of growth plus a 4.2% dividend would justify. At 24.8× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Chevron's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $189B | $203B | $201B | $246B | $162B |
| Change on the year | −7% | +1% | −18% | +52% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $16.6B | $15.0B | $19.8B | $37.6B | $21.1B |
| Of revenue | 9% | 7% | 10% | 15% | 13% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 9.6% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $7.3B | $8.3B | $8.2B | $17.7B | $5.6B |
| Long-term debt | $39.8B | $20.1B | $20.3B | $21.4B | $25.7B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$32.5B | −$11.9B | −$12.1B | −$3.7B | −$20.0B |
What Chevron says it does
Development of Business Summary Description of Chevron Chevron Corporation 1 , a Delaware corporation, manages its investments in subsidiaries and affiliates and provides administrative, financial, management and technology support to U.S. and international subsidiaries that engage in integrated energy and chemicals operations. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil, refined products and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels; transporting crude oil and…
Risk factors CVX lists in its 10-K
- Chevron is exposed to the effects of changing commodity prices
- The scope of Chevron’s business will decline if the company does not successfully develop resources
- The company’s operations could be disrupted by natural or human causes beyond its control
- Cyberattacks and events affecting Chevron’s operational technology networks or other digital infrastructure could have a material adverse impact on the company’s business and results of operations
- Chevron is incorporating artificial intelligence technologies into its processes and these technologies may present business, compliance, and reputational risks
- The company’s operations have inherent risks and hazards that require significant and continuous oversight
- The company does not insure against all potential losses, which could result in significant financial exposure
- One of our subsidiaries acts as the general partner of a publicly traded limited partnership, Hess Midstream LP, which may involve a potential legal liability
- Chevron’s business subjects the company to liability risks from litigation or government action
- Political instability and significant changes in the legal and regulatory environment could harm Chevron’s business
- Legislative or regulatory changes in tax laws may expose Chevron to additional tax liabilities
- Attention to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) matters impacts our company
- Our ambitions and disclosures related to ESG matters subject us to numerous risks that may negatively impact our reputation and stock price or result in other material adverse impacts to the company
- Changes in management’s estimates and assumptions may have a material impact on the company’s consolidated financial statements and financial or operational performance in any given period