ExxonMobil (XOM)
Energy · $672B market cap · SEC CIK 0000034088
ahead of 51% of the S&P 500 · #14 of 21 in Energy
Next reports on Jan 28, 2027, with analysts expecting $4.17 in earnings per share.
52-week range $114.19 to $188.50. 13% below its 52-week high and 44% above its low.
The case for XOM
- Revenue growing 19.5% year over year.
- Pays a 2.5% dividend while you wait.
- Reasonably priced for its growth: 14.8× mid-cycle earnings, where 6%+ a year of growth plus a 2.5% dividend would justify about 21×.
- Has compounded revenue at 12.7% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 16%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.17).
The case against
- Profitability is weak (39/100): return on equity 16%, net margin 10.5%, gross margin 29%, 82% of profit turned to cash.
- Free-cash-flow yield of 3.5% is lower than 87% of Energy companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Energy companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 44 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 58 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 39 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 70 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 85 |
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 21 Energy companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +19.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +12.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $332B (−5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $23.6B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 7% |
| Of profit | 82% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 29% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 13% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 9.6% → 8.7% → 10.5% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $10.7B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $34.2B |
| Net debt | $23.6B |
| Years to repay | 0.7 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 16.5× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 14.8× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 21× |
| P/FCF | 28.5× |
| Forward P/E | 15.1× |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.8× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 14.8× those mid-cycle earnings (16.5× the latest year's) it trades below the 21× that 6%+ a year of growth plus a 2.5% dividend would justify. At 28.5× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from ExxonMobil's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $332B | $350B | $345B | $414B | $286B |
| Change on the year | −5% | +1% | −17% | +45% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $23.6B | $30.7B | $33.5B | $58.4B | $36.1B |
| Of revenue | 7% | 9% | 10% | 14% | 13% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 8.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $10.7B | $23.0B | $31.5B | $29.6B | $6.8B |
| Long-term debt | $34.2B | $36.8B | $37.5B | $40.6B | $43.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$23.6B | −$13.7B | −$5.9B | −$10.9B | −$36.6B |
What ExxonMobil says it does
Exxon Mobil Corporation was incorporated in the State of New Jersey in 1882. Divisions and affiliated companies of ExxonMobil operate or market products in the United States and most other countries of the world. Our principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and ammonia, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima TM resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data centers, and lithium. Affiliates of ExxonMobil conduct extensive research programs in support of these businesses. Exxon Mobil Corporation's divisions and affiliates have many names, including ExxonMobil , Exxon , Esso, Mobil or XTO . For convenience and simplicity, in this report the…
Risk factors XOM lists in its 10-K
- Climate Change and Energy Transition
- Technology and lower-emission solutions
- Exploration and development program
- Research and development and technological change
- Safety, business controls, and risk management