Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Energy · $106B market cap · SEC CIK 0001510295

Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $21.98 in earnings per share.

52-week range $161.93 to $493.98. 21% below its 52-week high and 141% above its low.

The case for MPC

• Revenue up 30.6% on the year.
• Cheap for its growth: 4.8× mid-cycle earnings, where 6%+ a year of growth plus a 2.2% dividend would justify about 20×.
• Earns 77% on shareholder equity.
• Has compounded revenue at 14.0% a year over five years.
• Moves less than the market (beta 0.54).
• Pays a modest 2.2% dividend.

The case against

• Long-term debt of $30.5B against $3.7B of cash.
• Net margin of 8% is thinner than 90% of Energy companies.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Energy companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 21 Energy companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Marathon Petroleum's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Marathon Petroleum says it does

OVERVIEW MPC has nearly 140 years of history in the energy business, and is a leading, integrated, downstream and midstream energy company. We operate one of the nation's largest refining systems with approximately 3.0 million barrels per day of crude oil refining capacity and believe we are one of the largest wholesale suppliers of gasoline and distillates to resellers in the United States. We distribute our refined products through one of the largest terminal operations in the United States and one of the largest private domestic fleets of inland petroleum product barges. Our integrated midstream energy asset network links producers of natural gas and NGLs from some of the largest supply basins in the United States to domestic and international markets. In addition, we are one of the largest producers and marketers of renewable diesel in the United States. Our operations consist of three reportable operating segments: Refining &…

Risk factors MPC lists in its 10-K

• Our financial results are affected by volatile refining margins, which are dependent on factors beyond our control
• Industry, market, technological and regulatory developments regarding emissions, fuel efficiency and alternative fuel vehicles may decrease demand for liquid transportation fuels
• Our operations are subject to business interruptions and present inherent hazards and risks, which could adversely impact our results of operations and financial condition
• We are increasingly dependent on the performance of our information technology systems and those of our third-party business partners and service providers
• As we integrate artificial intelligence technologies into our processes, these technologies may present business, compliance and reputational risks
• The availability and cost of renewable identification numbers and credits related to low carbon fuel programs and incentives could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations
• Competitors that produce their own supply of feedstocks, own their own retail sites, or have greater financial resources may have a competitive advantage
• We may be negatively impacted by inflation
• We are subject to interruptions of supply and increased costs as a result of our reliance on third-party transportation of crude oil and refined products
• Severe weather events, other climate conditions and earth movement and other geological hazards may adversely affect our assets and ongoing operations
• We are subject to risks arising from our operations outside the United States and generally to worldwide political and economic developments
• Our investments in joint ventures could be adversely affected by our reliance on our joint venture partners and their financial condition, and our joint venture partners may have interests or goals that are inconsistent with ours
• Terrorist attacks or other targeted operational disruptions may affect our facilities or those of our customers and suppliers
• Significant variations in the market prices of crude oil and refined products can affect our financial performance
• Our working capital, cash flows and liquidity can be significantly affected by decreases in commodity prices
• Increases in interest rates could adversely impact our ability to issue equity, refinance existing debt or incur additional debt for acquisitions or other purposes and our ability to pay dividends at our intended levels
• We may incur losses and additional costs as a result of our forward-contract activities and derivative transactions
• We do not insure against all potential losses, and, therefore, our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows could be adversely affected by unexpected liabilities and increased costs
• We have recorded goodwill and other intangible assets that could become further impaired and result in material non-cash charges to our results of operations
• Large capital projects can be subject to delays, take years to complete, and market conditions could deteriorate significantly between the project approval date and the project startup date, negatively impacting project returns
• The tax treatment of publicly traded partnerships or an investment in MPLX units could be subject to potential legislative, judicial or administrative changes and differing interpretations, possibly on a retroactive basis
• Climate change and GHG emission regulation could affect our operations, energy consumption patterns and regulatory obligations, any of which could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition
• Energy companies are subject to increasing environmental and climate-related litigation
• Increasing attention to environmental, social and governance matters may impact our business and financial results
• Our goals, targets and disclosures related to ESG matters expose us to numerous risks, including risks to our reputation and stock price
• Regulatory and other requirements concerning the transportation of crude oil and other commodities by rail may cause increases in transportation costs or limit the amount of crude oil that we can transport by rail
• If California or other jurisdictions (i) establish a maximum refining margin and impose a financial penalty for profits above such maximum refining margin, (ii) impose restrictions on turnaround and maintenance activities or (iii)
• require that petroleum refiners maintain a minimum inventory of transportation fuels
• , our financial results and profitability could be adversely affected
• Historic or current operations could subject us to significant legal liability or restrict our ability to operate
• A portion of our workforce is unionized, and we may face labor disruptions that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
• One of our subsidiaries acts as the general partner of a master limited partnership, which may expose us to certain legal liabilities
• Our operations could be disrupted if we are unable to maintain or obtain real property rights required for our business
• Certain of our facilities are located on Native American tribal lands and are subject to various federal and tribal approvals and regulations, which can increase our costs and delay or prevent our efforts to conduct operations
• The Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware will be, to the extent permitted by law, the sole and exclusive forum for most disputes between us and our shareholders
• Provisions in our corporate governance documents could operate to delay or prevent a change in control of our company, dilute the voting power or reduce the value of our capital stock or affect its liquidity
• Compliance with and changes in tax laws could materially and adversely impact our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows

Filings

Other Energy companies