Oneok (OKE)
Energy · $54.6B market cap · SEC CIK 0001039684
ahead of 14% of the S&P 500 · #20 of 21 in Energy
Next reports on Feb 22, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.50 in earnings per share.
52-week range $66.93 to $99.85. 12% below its 52-week high and 31% above its low.
The case for OKE
- Pays a 5.7% dividend while you wait.
- Reasonably priced for its growth: 15.6× mid-cycle earnings, where 6%+ a year of growth plus a 5.7% dividend would justify about 26×.
- Return on equity of 18%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.79).
The case against
- Revenue fell 14.7% year over year.
- Long-term debt of $30.8B would take 5 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Net margin of 2.9% leaves very little room for error.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.84).
- Price/sales of 4.3× is higher than 90% of Energy companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Energy companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 59 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 25 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 27 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 59 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 36 |
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 21 Energy companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, shrinking
| Last 12 months | −14.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.4% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $33.6B (+55%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.4B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 7% |
| Of profit | 72% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | n/a |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 9% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 14.0% → 10.1% → 2.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $78.0M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $30.8B |
| Net debt | $30.7B |
| Years to repay | 5.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 13.4× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 15.6× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 26× |
| P/FCF | 22.3× |
| Forward P/E | 15.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.9× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 15.6× those mid-cycle earnings (13.4× the latest year's) it trades below the 26× that 6%+ a year of growth plus a 5.7% dividend would justify. At 22.3× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Oneok's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $33.6B | $21.7B | $17.7B | $22.4B | $16.5B |
| Change on the year | +55% | +23% | −21% | +35% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.4B | $2.9B | $2.8B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| Of revenue | 7% | 13% | 16% | 8% | 11% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 17.1% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 12.5% | 15.7% |
| Net margin | 10.1% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $78.0M | $733M | $338M | $220M | $146M |
| Long-term debt | $30.8B | $31.0B | $21.2B | $12.7B | $12.7B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$30.7B | −$30.3B | −$20.8B | −$12.5B | −$12.6B |
What Oneok says it does
We are incorporated under the laws of the state of Oklahoma, and our common stock is listed on the NYSE under the trading symbol “OKE.” We deliver energy products and services vital to an advancing world. We are a leading midstream service provider of gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage and marine export services. As one of the largest integrated energy infrastructure companies in North America, we are delivering energy that makes a difference in the lives of people in the U.S. and around the world. Through our approximately 60,000-mile pipeline network, we transport the natural gas, NGLs, Refined Products and crude oil that help meet domestic and international energy demand, contribute to energy security and provide safe, reliable and responsible energy solutions needed today and into the future. Midstream Value Chain The midstream value chain is a vital part of the energy industry. After crude oil and…
Risk factors OKE lists in its 10-K
- If the level of drilling in the regions in which we operate declines substantially near our assets, our volumes and revenues could decline
- Our operating results may be adversely affected by unfavorable economic and market conditions
- The volatility of natural gas, NGL, Refined Products and crude oil prices could adversely affect our earnings and cash flows
- Reduced volatility in energy prices or new government regulations could discourage our storage customers from holding positions in Refined Products, crude oil and natural gas, which could adversely affect our business
- Our operations are subject to operational hazards and unforeseen interruptions, which could adversely affect our business and for which we may not be adequately insured
- Continued development of supply sources outside of our operating regions could impact demand for our services
- Terrorist attacks, including cyber sabotage, aimed at our facilities could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial position and cash flows
- Scrutiny and conflicting stakeholder expectations regarding ESG issues, including climate change, may impact our business
- We may be subject to risks associated with the physical impacts of climate change
- Estimates of hydrocarbon reserves may be inaccurate, which could result in lower than anticipated volumes
- We do not own all of the land on which our pipelines and facilities are located, and we lease certain facilities and equipment, which could disrupt our operations
- Measurement adjustments on our pipeline systems may be impacted materially by changes in estimation, type of commodity and other factors
- We face competition for supply and, as a result, we may have significant levels of excess capacity on our pipeline, processing, fractionation, terminal and storage assets
- Many of our assets have been in service for several decades
- Our operating cash flows are derived partially from cash distributions we receive from our unconsolidated affiliates
- We may be unable to cause our joint ventures to take or not to take certain actions unless some or all of our joint-venture participants agree
- Our ability to use net operating losses and certain other tax attributes to offset future taxable income may be limited
- Our business is subject to regulatory oversight and potential penalties
- Our liquids blending activities subject us to federal regulations that govern renewable fuel requirements in the U.S
- We may face significant costs to comply with the regulation of GHG emissions
- Changes in interest rates could adversely affect our business
- Any reduction in our credit ratings could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial position and cash flows
- Our indebtedness and guarantee obligations could impair our financial condition and our ability to fulfill our obligations
- An event of default may require us to offer to repurchase or repay certain of our and ONEOK Partners’ senior notes or may impair our ability to access capital
- A court may use fraudulent conveyance considerations to avoid or subordinate the cross guarantees of our and ONEOK Partners’ indebtedness
- Mergers, acquisitions and other significant transactions that appear to be accretive may nevertheless reduce our cash from operations on a per-share basis
- Our future results following any potential future transactions will suffer if we do not effectively manage our expanded operations
- Holders of our common stock may receive dividends that vary from anticipated amounts, or no dividends at all
- We are exposed to the credit risk of our customers or counterparties, and our credit risk management may not be adequate to protect against such risk
- Our employees or directors may engage in misconduct or other improper activities, including noncompliance with regulatory standards and requirements
- An impairment of goodwill, long-lived assets, including intangible assets, and equity-method investments could reduce our earnings
- The cost of providing pension and postretirement health care benefits to eligible employees and qualified retirees is subject to changes in pension fund values and changing demographics and may increase