Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
Real Estate · $9.9B market cap · SEC CIK 0000034903
ahead of 84% of the S&P 500 · #5 of 30 in Real Estate
No earnings date is scheduled in the next few months.
52-week range $95.14 to $128.21. 11% below its 52-week high and 20% above its low.
The case for FRT
- 33% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Earnings per share up 25.5%.
- Pays a 4.7% dividend while you wait.
- Gross margin of 68% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Long-term debt of $5.0B would take 8 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Priced at 7.3× sales with revenue growing only 7.8%.
- Dividend takes 90% of earnings, leaving little cushion.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Real Estate companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 68 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 69 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 79 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 56 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 46 |
- Capital spending is missing from its filings, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow stands in for the cash test, against a stricter bar.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 30 Real Estate companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +7.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.9% a year |
| FY2024 revenue | $1.3B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Can't tell: no capital spending in its filings
| FY2024 operating cash flow | $622M |
|---|---|
| Of profit, before capital spending | 151% |
Its filings do not give capital spending, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow, which is before that spending, is shown instead, and the score judges it against a stricter bar.
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 68% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 48% |
| Net margin, FY23 → FY24 → now | 24.6% → 32.1% → 32.6% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $107M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $5.0B |
| Net debt | $4.9B |
| Years to repay | 8.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 22.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 20× |
| Price / operating cash flow | 15.8× |
| Forward P/E | 32.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.0× |
At 22.4× earnings it trades close to the 20× that 8%+ a year of growth would justify. At 15.8× operating cash flow it trades below that same mark; for a REIT that counts for more than earnings, since depreciation makes its P/E look worse than the business is.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Federal Realty Investment Trust's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $951M |
| Change on the year | +6% | +6% | +5% | +13% | — |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 47.1% | 39.3% | 35.9% | 49.0% | 41.5% |
| Net margin | 32.1% | 24.6% | 20.9% | 35.9% | 27.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $107M | $123M | $251M | $85.6M | $162M |
| Long-term debt | $5.0B | $4.5B | $4.6B | $4.3B | $4.1B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$4.9B | −$4.4B | −$4.4B | −$4.3B | −$3.9B |
What Federal Realty Investment Trust says it does
Federal Realty Investment Trust (the "Parent Company" or the "Trust") is an equity real estate investment trust ("REIT"). Federal Realty OP LP (the "Operating Partnership") is the entity through which the Trust conducts substantially all of its operations and owns substantially all of its assets. The Trust owns 100% of the limited liability company interest of, is sole member of, and exercises exclusive control over Federal Realty GP LLC (the "General Partner"), which in turn, is the sole 3 Table of Contents general partner of the Operating Partnership. Unless stated otherwise or the context otherwise requires, "we," "our," and "us" means the Trust and its business and operations conducted through its directly and indirectly owned subsidiaries, including the Operating Partnership. We specialize in the ownership, management, and redevelopment of high quality retail and mixed-use properties. These properties are located primarily in…
Risk factors FRT lists in its 10-K
- Revenue from our properties may be reduced or limited if the retail operations of our tenants are not successful
- Our net income depends on the success and continued presence of our “anchor” tenants
- A shift in retail shopping from brick and mortar stores to online shopping may have an adverse impact on our cash flow, financial condition and results of operations
- We have properties that are geographically concentrated, and adverse economic or real estate market declines in these areas could have a material adverse effect on us
- We may be unable to collect balances due from tenants that file for bankruptcy protection
- We may experience difficulty or delay in renewing leases or re-leasing space
- Our development activities have inherent risks
- Redevelopments and acquisitions may fail to perform as expected
- Our performance and value are subject to general risks associated with the real estate industry
- Many real estate costs are fixed, even if income from our properties decreases
- Competition may limit our ability to purchase new properties and generate sufficient income from tenants
- We may be unable to sell properties when appropriate because real estate investments are illiquid
- We may have limited flexibility in dealing with our jointly owned investments
- Our insurance coverage on our properties may be inadequate
- Natural disasters, climate change and health crises, could have an adverse impact on our cash flow and operating results
- The amount of debt we have and the restrictions imposed by that debt could adversely affect our business and financial condition
- Adverse changes in our credit rating could affect our borrowing capacity and borrowing terms
- Our ability to grow will be limited if we cannot obtain additional capital
- Rising interest rates could adversely affect our cash flow and the market price of our outstanding debt and preferred shares
- Hedging activity may expose us to risks, including the risks that a counterparty will not perform and that the hedge will not yield the economic benefits we anticipate, which may adversely affect us
- Failure to qualify as a REIT for federal income tax purposes would cause the Parent Company to be taxed as a corporation, which would substantially reduce funds available for payment of distributions
- To maintain our status as a REIT, we limit the amount of shares any one shareholder of the Parent Company can own
- Legislative, administrative, regulatory or other actions affecting REITs, including positions taken by the IRS, could have a material adverse effect on us and our investors
- We may be required to incur additional debt to qualify as a REIT
- Environmental laws and regulations could reduce the value or profitability of our properties
- The Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 could require us to take remedial steps with respect to existing or newly acquired properties
- The revenues generated by our tenants could be negatively affected by various federal, state and local laws to which they are subject
- Certain tax and anti-takeover provisions of the Parent Company's declaration of trust and bylaws, and certain restrictions in the Partnership's limited partnership agreement, may inhibit a change of our control
- The market value of our debt and equity securities is subject to various factors that may cause significant fluctuations or volatility
- We cannot assure you we will continue to pay dividends in the current composition or at historical rates
- The Parent Company is a holding company with no direct operations, and it will rely on funds received from the Partnership to pay its obligations and make distributions to its shareholders
- Loss of our key management could adversely affect performance and the value of our common shares
- We may adjust our business policies without shareholder approval
- We face risks relating to cyber threats that could cause loss of confidential information and other business disruptions