Kimco Realty (KIM)
Real Estate · $17.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0000879101
ahead of 40% of the S&P 500 · #16 of 30 in Real Estate
Next reports on Feb 10, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.21 in earnings per share.
52-week range $19.76 to $26.65. 4% below its 52-week high and 30% above its low.
The case for KIM
- Generated $1.1B of free cash flow in FY2025, 51% of revenue.
- 34% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Earnings per share up 25.6%.
- Pays a 5.1% dividend while you wait.
- Has compounded revenue at 15.1% a year over five years.
- Gross margin of 69% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 22.9× earnings, where 0% a year of growth would justify about 8×.
- Long-term debt of $7.7B would take 7 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 2.5 times.
- Priced at 7.8× sales with revenue growing only 3.5%.
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 3.5% this year against 15.1% a year over five.
- Return on equity of only 7%.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Real Estate companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 26 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 47 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 71 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 75 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 44 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 30 Real Estate companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +3.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +15.1% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.1B (+5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 51% |
| Of profit | 188% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 69% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 34% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 20.2% → 27.3% → 34.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $212M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $7.7B |
| Net debt | $7.5B |
| Years to repay | 6.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 22.9× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 8× |
| Price / operating cash flow | 15.3× |
| Forward P/E | 27.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 18.3× |
At 22.9× earnings it trades well above the 8× that 0% a year of growth would justify. At 15.3× operating cash flow it trades well above that same mark; for a REIT that counts for more than earnings, since depreciation makes its P/E look worse than the business is.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Kimco Realty's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $2.1B | $2.0B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.4B |
| Change on the year | +5% | +14% | +3% | +27% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.1B | — | — | — | — |
| Of revenue | 51% | — | — | — | — |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 36.0% | 30.9% | 35.8% | 32.7% | 31.1% |
| Net margin | 27.3% | 20.2% | 36.7% | 7.3% | 61.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $212M | $689M | $781M | $147M | $326M |
| Long-term debt | $7.7B | $8.0B | $7.3B | $6.8B | $7.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$7.5B | −$7.3B | −$6.5B | −$6.6B | −$6.7B |
Risk factors KIM lists in its 10-K
- Adverse global market and economic conditions may impede our ability to generate sufficient income and maintain our properties
- Competition may limit our ability to purchase new properties or generate sufficient income from tenants and may decrease the occupancy and rental rates for our properties
- Our performance depends on our ability to collect rent from tenants, our tenants’ financial condition and our tenants maintaining leases for our properties
- Our expenses may remain constant or increase, even if income from our real estate portfolio decreases, which could adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
- We may be unable to sell our real estate property investments when appropriate or on terms favorable to us
- From time to time, we acquire or develop properties or acquire other real estate related companies, and this creates risks
- We face risks associated with the development of mixed-use commercial properties
- Construction projects are subject to risks that materially increase the costs of completion
- International trade disputes, including U.S. trade tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, could adversely impact our business
- The Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 could require us to take remedial steps with respect to existing or newly acquired properties
- We do not have exclusive control over our joint venture and preferred equity investments, such that we are unable to ensure that our objectives will be pursued
- We may not be able to recover our investments in mortgage and other financing receivables or other investments, which may result in significant losses to us
- Our real estate assets may be subject to impairment charges
- We may not be able to recover our investments, which may result in significant losses to us
- Cybersecurity attacks and incidents could materially impact our business, financial condition and results of operations
- Artificial intelligence presents risks and challenges that can impact our business, including by posing security risks to our confidential information, proprietary information, and personal data
- We may be subject to liability under environmental laws, ordinances and regulations
- Natural disasters, severe weather conditions and the effects of climate change could have an adverse impact on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
- Pandemics or other health crises may adversely affect our tenants’ financial condition and the profitability of our properties
- Financial disruption, geopolitical challenges, or economic downturn could materially and adversely affect the Company’s business
- Hedging activity may expose us to risks, including the risks that a counterparty will not perform and that the hedge will not yield the economic benefits we anticipate, which may adversely affect us
- We are subject to risks and costs arising from disclosures, commitments, evaluations and other items related to sustainability or corporate responsibility
- Our success depends largely on the continued service and availability of key personnel
- Our Umbrella Partnership Real Estate Investment Trust (“UPREIT”) structure may result in potential conflicts of interest with members of Kimco OP, whose interests may not be aligned with those of our stockholders
- We may be unable to obtain financing through the debt and equity markets, which could have a material adverse effect on our growth strategy, our financial condition and our results of operations
- We are subject to financial covenants that may restrict our operating and acquisition activities
- We have a substantial amount of indebtedness and may need to incur more indebtedness in the future
- We are exposed to interest rate risk, and there can be no assurance that we will manage or mitigate this risk effectively
- Changes in market conditions could adversely affect the market price of our publicly traded securities
- We may change the dividend policy for our common stock in the future
- If Kimco OP were to fail to qualify as a partnership for federal income tax purposes, the Parent Company would fail to qualify as a REIT and suffer other adverse consequences
- Tax liabilities and attributes inherited in connection with acquisitions may adversely impact our business
- The tax imposed on REITs engaging in “prohibited transactions” may limit our ability to engage in transactions which would be treated as sales for U.S. federal income tax purposes
- Dividends payable by REITs do not qualify for the reduced tax rates available for some dividends