LyondellBasell (LYB)
Materials · $19.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0001489393
ahead of 15% of the S&P 500 · #19 of 26 in Materials
Next reports on Jan 28, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.63 in earnings per share.
52-week range $41.58 to $83.94. 28% below its 52-week high and 46% above its low.
The case for LYB
- Pays a 5.3% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.34).
- Price/sales of 0.6× is lower than 92% of Materials companies.
The case against
- Long-term debt of $12.1B would take 5 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Revenue was flat on the year (−1.8%).
- Profitability is weak (32/100): return on equity 12%, net margin 4.1%, gross margin 14%.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 44 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 25 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 32 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 55 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 59 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, flat
| Last 12 months | −1.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +1.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $30.2B (−10%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? A little
| FY2025 free cash flow | $384M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 1% |
| Of profit | n/a |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 14% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 6% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 4.1% → −2.4% → 4.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $3.4B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $12.1B |
| Net debt | $8.7B |
| Years to repay | 5.4 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 14.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 17× |
| P/FCF | 50.1× |
| Forward P/E | 10.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.2× |
At 14.8× earnings it trades close to the 17× that 1% a year of growth plus a 5.3% dividend would justify. At 50.1× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from LyondellBasell's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $30.2B | $33.4B | $33.3B | $50.5B | $46.2B |
| Change on the year | −10% | 0% | −34% | +9% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $384M | $2.0B | $3.4B | $4.2B | $5.7B |
| Of revenue | 1% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 12% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | −1.4% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 14.7% |
| Net margin | −2.4% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 12.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $3.4B | $3.4B | $3.4B | $2.2B | $1.5B |
| Long-term debt | $12.1B | $10.5B | $10.3B | $10.5B | $11.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$8.7B | −$7.2B | −$6.9B | −$8.4B | −$9.8B |
Risk factors LYB lists in its 10-K
- The cyclicality and volatility of the industries in which we participate may cause significant fluctuations in our operating results
- A sustained decrease in the price of crude oil may adversely impact the results of our operations, primarily in North America
- Costs and limitations on supply of raw materials and energy may result in increased operating expenses
- Our ability to source raw materials or deliver products may be adversely affected by political instability, civil disturbances or other governmental actions
- Our operations are subject to risks inherent in the chemical industry, and we could be subject to liabilities for which we are not fully insured or that are not otherwise mitigated
- Our business, including our results of operations and reputation, could be adversely affected by safety or product liability issues
- Interruptions of operations at our facilities may result in increased liabilities or lower operating results
- Shared control or lack of control of joint ventures or equity investments may delay decisions or actions regarding our joint ventures, or adversely affect our financial results
- We may be required to record material charges against our earnings due to any number of events including impairments of our assets
- Acquisitions or dispositions of assets or businesses could disrupt our business and harm our financial condition and stock price
- We sell products in highly competitive global markets and face significant price pressures
- We operate internationally and are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, exchange controls, tariffs, political risks and other risks relating to international operations
- We cannot predict with certainty the extent of future costs under environmental, health and safety and other laws and regulations, and cannot guarantee they will not be material
- We may incur substantial costs to comply with climate change legislation and related regulatory initiatives
- Legislation and regulatory initiatives could lead to a decrease in demand for our products or reputational harm
- The physical impacts of climate change can negatively impact our facilities and operations
- Increased regulation or deselection of plastic could lead to a decrease in demand growth for some of our products
- Failure to effectively and timely achieve our GHG emissions reduction goals could damage our reputation and have an adverse effect on the demand for our products
- Failure to achieve our circularity goals could have an adverse effect on the demand for our products and damage our reputation
- Adverse results of legal proceedings could materially adversely affect us
- If we lose key employees or are unable to attract and retain the employees we need, our business and operating results could be adversely affected
- Significant changes in pension fund investment performance or assumptions relating to pension costs may adversely affect the valuation of pension obligations, the funded status of pension plans, and our pension cost