Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
Consumer Staples · $33.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0000007084
ahead of 48% of the S&P 500 · #18 of 36 in Consumer Staples
Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.41 in earnings per share.
52-week range $55.58 to $88.75. 22% below its 52-week high and 25% above its low.
The case for ADM
- Free cash flow of 12.7% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Earnings per share up 108.0%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.62).
- Pays a modest 2.4% dividend.
- P/E of 13.3× is lower than 91% of Consumer Staples companies.
- Price/sales of 0.4× is lower than 91% of Consumer Staples companies.
The case against
- Net margin of 3.0% leaves very little room for error.
- Long-term debt of $6.6B against $1.0B of cash.
- Revenue grew only 1.0%, roughly the pace of inflation.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Staples companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 70 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 56 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 34 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 49 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 78 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 36 Consumer Staples companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +1.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $80.3B (−6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $4.2B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 5% |
| Of profit | 390% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 7% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 3% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 2.1% → 1.3% → 3.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $1.0B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $6.6B |
| Net debt | $5.6B |
| Years to repay | 1.2 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 13.3× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 12× |
| P/FCF | 7.9× |
| Forward P/E | 13.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.3× |
At 13.3× earnings it trades close to the 12× that 0% a year of growth plus a 2.4% dividend would justify. At 7.9× free cash flow it trades below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Archer Daniels Midland's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $80.3B | $85.5B | $93.9B | $102B | $85.2B |
| Change on the year | −6% | −9% | −8% | +19% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $4.2B | $1.2B | $3.0B | $2.2B | $5.4B |
| Of revenue | 5% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| Net margin | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.0B | $611M | $1.4B | $1.0B | $943M |
| Long-term debt | $6.6B | $7.6B | $8.3B | $7.7B | $8.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$5.6B | −$7.0B | −$6.9B | −$6.7B | −$7.1B |
What Archer Daniels Midland says it does
Company Overview Archer-Daniels-Midland Company and its subsidiaries (the "Company" or "ADM") unlocks the power of nature to enrich the quality of life. The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities. ADM is also a premier human and animal nutrition provider, as well as a leader in health and well-being products. The Company partners with thousands of farmers around the world to purchase their crops and uses its integrated global origination, logistics, and manufacturing network to transform many of those raw commodities into an expansive array of products serving the food, feed, fuel, and industrial and consumer products sectors. The Company offers a broad portfolio of food and beverage products, from staple foods to innovative alternatives, such as natural colors and flavors, plant-based proteins, and lower-sugar, fat, and…
Risk factors ADM lists in its 10-K
- The Company is exposed to potential business disruption risks which could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and could result in increased expenses and liabilities
- Transportation, inflationary impacts, and fluctuations in energy prices could affect the Company’s operating results
- Human capital availability may not be sufficient to effectively support global operations
- The Company may fail to realize the benefits of or experience delays in the execution of its strategic priorities
- The Company faces risks related to health epidemics, pandemics, and similar outbreaks
- The Company faces risks related to international conflicts, acts of terrorism, war, other geopolitical events, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, maritime piracy, and other economic disruptions
- Geopolitical risks could disrupt global markets and negatively impact the Company’s business and financial results
- The Company is subject to various evolving regulations related to ESG matters which impacts the Company’s business and strategies, and could adversely affect its reputation, business and results of operations
- The Company’s goals and stakeholder expectations relating to ESG-related matters and sustainable practices may expose the Company to increased costs, reputational harm and other risks
- Limitations on access to external financing could adversely affect the Company’s operating results due to its capital-intensive nature
- The Company is subject to risks relating to global and regional economic downturns, which could adversely affect the Company’s operating results
- The Company has significant competition in the markets in which it operates and is subject to industry-specific risks which could adversely affect the Company’s operating results
- The Company’s risk management strategies may not be effective
- The Company is subject to numerous laws, regulations, and mandates globally which could adversely affect the Company’s operating results and forward strategy
- Changes in tax laws or exposure to additional tax liabilities could have a material impact on the Company’s financial condition and results of operations
- The Company’s inability to successfully upgrade its information and operational technology
- systems could have a material and adverse effect on the Company’s business, financial condition, and operational results
- Information and operational technology systems are subject to interruptions or failures which may affect the Company’s ability to conduct its business
- The Company’s systems, processes, and sites are subject to cybersecurity and other incidents, which could expose the Company to operational and various regulatory risks
- The Company is subject to various technical, legal, and opportunistic-related risks relating to use of artificial intelligence and other emerging digital technologies
- The Company is involved in a number of legal proceedings that may result in adverse outcomes
- Negative publicity has in the past and in the future may adversely affect the Company and the market price of its common stock