Altria (MO)

Consumer Staples · $128B market cap · SEC CIK 0000764180

Next reports on Jan 28, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.43 in earnings per share.

52-week range $54.70 to $79.87. 4% below its 52-week high and 40% above its low.

The case for MO

• Generated $9.1B of free cash flow in FY2025, 39% of revenue.
• 35% of revenue drops through to net profit.
• Free cash flow of 7.1% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
• Earns 24% a year on everything it owns (return on assets).
• Reasonably priced for its growth: 15.7× earnings, where 3% a year of growth plus a 9.5% dividend (8.0% of it counted) would justify about 25×.
• Gross margin of 63% absorbs cost shocks.

The case against

• A yield of 9.5% is usually the market pricing in a cut.
• Revenue was flat on the year (+0.5%).
• Revenue has shrunk 2.3% a year over five years.
• Earnings per share fell 7.6%.
• Owes more than it owns: shareholder equity is −$3.5B, usually the result of buybacks funded with debt. ROE and price-to-book mean little here.
• Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.58).

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Staples companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Shareholder equity is negative, so return on equity, price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 36 Consumer Staples companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Altria's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Altria says it does

Development of Business When used in this Annual Report on Form 10-K (“Form 10-K”), the terms “Altria,” “we,” “us” and “our” refer to either (i) Altria Group, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries or (ii) Altria Group, Inc. only and not its consolidated subsidiaries, as appropriate in the context. We have a leading portfolio of tobacco products for U.S. tobacco consumers age 21+. We are Moving Beyond Smoking TM , by responsibly transitioning adult smokers to a smoke-free future, competing vigorously for existing smoke-free adult nicotine consumers and exploring new growth opportunities - beyond the United States and beyond nicotine (“Vision”). Our wholly owned subsidiaries include Philip Morris USA Inc. (“PM USA”), which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes; John Middleton Co. (“Middleton”), which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made large cigars and is a wholly owned subsidiary of PM USA; UST LLC…

Risk factors MO lists in its 10-K

• Our inability to successfully counter the effects of illicit trade in nicotine products, including e-vapor products, could have a material adverse effect on our
• and our ability to achieve our Vision
• Significant changes in price, availability or quality of tobacco, other raw materials or component parts could have a material adverse effect on our profitability and business
• Our operating companies could decide, or be required to, recall products, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, reputation, results of operations, cash flows or financial position
• Unfavorable outcomes with respect to litigation proceedings or any governmental investigations could materially adversely affect our results of operations, cash flows or financial position and our ability to achieve our Vision
• Nicotine products are subject to substantial taxation, and any increases in nicotine product-related taxes could have a material adverse impact on sales of our operating companies’ products
• A challenge to our tax positions, an increase in the income tax rate or other changes to federal or state tax laws could materially adversely affect our earnings or cash flows
• Legal and regulatory requirements related to climate change and other environmental sustainability matters could have a material adverse impact on our business and results of operations
• Disruption and uncertainty in the credit and capital markets could materially adversely affect our business
• A downgrade or potential downgrade of our credit ratings could adversely impact our borrowing costs and access to credit and capital markets, which could materially adversely affect our financial condition
• Our performance relating to corporate responsibility matters and investor and stakeholder responses thereto may impact our reputation, ability to attract investors and the market value of our stock
• The expected benefits of our investment in ABI may not materialize in the expected manner or timeframe or at all, which could have a material adverse impact on our financial position or earnings
• Our investment in Cronos subjects us to certain risks associated with Cronos’s business, including legal, regulatory and reputational risks

Filings

Other Consumer Staples companies