Walmart (WMT)
Consumer Staples · $984B market cap · SEC CIK 0000104169
ahead of 34% of the S&P 500 · #25 of 36 in Consumer Staples
Next reports on Nov 19, 2026, with analysts expecting $0.64 in earnings per share.
52-week range $98.88 to $135.16. 7% below its 52-week high and 27% above its low.
The case for WMT
- Return on equity of 23%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.53).
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 44.6× earnings, where 8% a year of growth plus a 0.8% dividend would justify about 20×.
- Net margin of 3.0% leaves very little room for error.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.77).
- Free-cash-flow yield of 1.5% is lower than 94% of Consumer Staples companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Staples companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 13 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 60 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 41 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 73 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 83 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 36 Consumer Staples companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +6.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +5.0% a year |
| FY2026 revenue | $713B (+5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? A little
| FY2026 free cash flow | $14.9B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 2% |
| Of profit | 68% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 25% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 4% |
| Net margin, FY25 → FY26 → now | 2.9% → 3.1% → 3.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $10.7B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $34.6B |
| Net debt | $23.9B |
| Years to repay | 0.8 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 44.6× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 20× |
| P/FCF | 66.0× |
| Forward P/E | 39.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 21.7× |
At 44.6× earnings it trades well above the 20× that 8% a year of growth plus a 0.8% dividend would justify. At 66.0× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Walmart's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $713B | $681B | $648B | $611B | $573B |
| Change on the year | +5% | +5% | +6% | +7% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $14.9B | $12.7B | $15.1B | $12.0B | $11.1B |
| Of revenue | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $10.7B | $9.0B | $9.9B | $8.6B | $14.8B |
| Long-term debt | $34.6B | $33.4B | $36.1B | $34.6B | $34.9B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$23.9B | −$24.4B | −$26.3B | −$26.0B | −$20.1B |
What Walmart says it does
" above for additional discussion of the competitive landscape of our business. Further, the protection of our proprietary rights, including our trademarks, copyrights, domain names, patents and trade secrets, is important to our business. Effective protection of our proprietary rights may not be available in every jurisdiction in which we offer our products and services, and we may not be able to prevent or deter third parties from infringing or misappropriating our intellectual property, or ensure that third parties will not independently develop equivalent or superior intellectual property rights, which could affect our ability to maintain a competitive advantage and adversely impact our business. Certain segments of the retail industry are undergoing consolidation or substantially reducing operations, whether due to bankruptcy, economics or other factors. Such consolidation, or other business combinations or alliances, competitive…
Risk factors WMT lists in its 10-K
- Associate Experience and Engagement
- Our Website and Availability of SEC Reports and Other Information
- Information About Our Executive Officers
- Failure to successfully execute our omnichannel strategy and the cost of our investments in eCommerce and technology may materially adversely affect our market position, net sales and financial performance
- We face strong competition from other retailers, wholesale club operators, omnichannel retailers and other businesses which could materially adversely affect our financial performance
- General or macro-economic factors, both domestically and internationally, may materially adversely affect our financial performance
- The performance of strategic alliances and other business relationships to support the expansion of our business could materially adversely affect our financial performance
- Global or regional health pandemics or epidemics could negatively impact our business, financial position and results of operations
- Natural disasters, climate change, geopolitical events, catastrophic and other events could materially adversely affect our financial performance
- Risks associated with our suppliers could materially adversely affect our financial performance
- We rely extensively on information and financial systems to process transactions, summarize results and manage our business. Disruptions in our systems could harm our ability to conduct our operations
- Changes in third-party reimbursements and contracts, type, or scope of offerings of our health and wellness business could adversely affect our overall results of operations, cash flows and liquidity
- Our failure to attract and retain qualified associates, increases in wage and benefit costs, changes in laws and other labor issues could materially adversely affect our financial performance
- Illegal or inappropriate activity of our independent contractors or third-party service providers could expose us to liability and adversely affect our business, reputation and financial performance
- Failure to meet market expectations for our financial performance could adversely affect the market price and volatility of our stock
- Fluctuations in foreign exchange rates may materially adversely affect our financial performance and our reported results of operations
- Changes in tax and trade laws, regulations and interpretations could materially adversely affect our financial performance
- Changes in and/or failure to comply with other laws, regulations and interpretations of such laws and regulations specific to the businesses and jurisdictions in which we operate
- could materially adversely affect our reputation, market position or our business and financial performance
- We are subject to risks related to litigation claims, and other legal proceedings that may materially adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and liquidity
- limit our shareholders' ability to obtain a favorable judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors, officers, associates or shareholders in such capacity
- Not satisfying stakeholder expectations with respect to our social and environmental efforts could adversely affect our reputation or subject us to regulatory or litigation risk