Coca-Cola (KO)
Consumer Staples · $413B market cap · SEC CIK 0000021344
ahead of 88% of the S&P 500 · #4 of 36 in Consumer Staples
Next reports on Feb 8, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.62 in earnings per share.
52-week range $67.27 to $97.39. At its 52-week high and 44% above its low.
The case for KO
- Earns 42% back on shareholder equity.
- 29% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Pays a 3.1% dividend while you wait.
- Gross margin of 62% absorbs cost shocks.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.24).
- Within 1% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.
The case against
- Long-term debt of $42.1B would take 6 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Priced at 8.1× sales with revenue growing only 7.1%.
- Only 40% of FY2025's $13.1B profit arrived as free cash.
- Free cash flow is only 1.3% of its market value, a thin cash return for the price.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Staples companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 38 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 70 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 82 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 84 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 64 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 36 Consumer Staples companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +7.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +7.8% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $47.9B (+2%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Less than its profits suggest
| FY2025 free cash flow | $5.3B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 11% |
| Of profit | 40% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 62% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 32% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 22.6% → 27.3% → 28.6% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $10.3B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $42.1B |
| Net debt | $31.8B |
| Years to repay | 5.7 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 28.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 26× |
| P/FCF | 78.0× |
| Forward P/E | 26.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 25.8× |
At 28.2× earnings it trades close to the 26× that 9% a year of growth plus a 3.1% dividend would justify. At 78.0× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Coca-Cola's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $47.9B | $47.1B | $45.8B | $43.0B | $38.7B |
| Change on the year | +2% | +3% | +6% | +11% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $5.3B | $4.7B | $9.7B | $9.5B | $11.3B |
| Of revenue | 11% | 10% | 21% | 22% | 29% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 61.6% | 61.1% | 59.5% | 58.1% | 60.3% |
| Operating margin | 28.7% | 21.2% | 24.7% | 25.4% | 26.7% |
| Net margin | 27.3% | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.2% | 25.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $10.3B | $10.8B | $9.4B | $9.5B | $9.7B |
| Long-term debt | $42.1B | $42.4B | $35.5B | $36.4B | $38.1B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$31.8B | −$31.5B | −$26.2B | −$26.9B | −$28.4B |
What Coca-Cola says it does
In this report, the terms “The Coca-Cola Company,” “Company,” “we,” “us” and “our” mean The Coca-Cola Company and all entities included in our consolidated financial statements. General The Coca-Cola Company is a total beverage company, and beverage products bearing our trademarks, sold in the United States since 1886, are now sold in more than 200 countries and territories. We own or license and market numerous beverage brands, which we group into the following categories: Trademark Coca-Cola; sparkling flavors; water, sports, coffee and tea; juice, value-added dairy and plant-based beverages; and emerging beverages. We own and market several of the world’s largest nonalcoholic sparkling soft drink brands, including Coca-Cola, Sprite, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Fanta and Diet Coke/Coca-Cola Light. We make our branded beverage products available to consumers throughout the world through our network of independent bottling partners,…
Risk factors KO lists in its 10-K
- Unfavorable general economic and geopolitical conditions could negatively impact our financial results
- Increased competition could hurt our business
- If we are not successful in our innovation activities, our financial results may be negatively affected
- Changes in the retail landscape or the loss of key customers could adversely affect our financial results
- If we are unable to expand our business in emerging and developing markets, our growth could be negatively affected
- If we do not successfully manage the potential negative consequences of our productivity initiatives, our business operations could be adversely affected
- If we are unable to attract, retain and inspire outstanding talent, our business could be negatively affected
- Disruption of our supply chain, including increased commodity, raw material, packaging, energy, transportation and other input costs, may adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations
- If our third-party service providers and business partners do not satisfactorily fulfill their commitments and responsibilities, or experience adverse events, our business could suffer
- If we are unable to renew collective bargaining agreements on satisfactory terms, or if we or our bottling partners experience strikes, work stoppages or labor unrest, our business could suffer
- Obesity and other health-related concerns may reduce demand for some of our products
- If we do not address evolving consumer product and shopping preferences, our business could suffer
- Product safety and quality concerns could negatively affect our business
- If we are not successful in our efforts to digitalize the Coca-Cola system, our financial results could be negatively affected
- If we are unable to successfully manage new product launches, our business and financial results could be adversely affected
- We rely on our bottling partners for a significant portion of our business. If we are unable to maintain good relationships with our bottling partners, our business could suffer
- If our bottling partners’ financial condition deteriorates, our business and financial results could be affected
- We may from time to time engage in refranchising activities or divestitures of certain brands or businesses, which could adversely affect our business and results of operations
- Increases in income tax rates, changes in income tax laws or regulations, or unfavorable resolutions of tax matters could have a material adverse impact on our financial results
- Increased or new indirect taxes could negatively affect our business
- Changes in laws and regulations relating to beverage containers and packaging could increase our costs and reduce demand for our products
- Significant additional labeling or warning requirements or limitations on the marketing or sale of our products may inhibit sales of affected products
- Litigation claims or legal proceedings could expose us to significant liabilities and damage our reputation
- We conduct business in markets with high-risk legal compliance environments, which exposes us to increased legal and reputational risk
- Failure to adequately protect, or disputes relating to, trademarks, formulas and other intellectual property rights could harm our business
- Changes in, or failure to comply with, the laws and regulations applicable to our products or our business operations could increase our costs or reduce our net operating revenues
- Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates could have a material adverse effect on our financial results
- If interest rates increase, our net income could be negatively affected
- If we are unable to achieve our overall long-term growth objectives, the value of an investment in our Company could be negatively affected
- Default by or failure of one or more of our counterparty financial institutions could cause us to incur significant losses
- We may be required to recognize impairment charges that could materially affect our financial results
- Our business is subject to evolving sustainability regulatory requirements and expectations, which exposes us to increased costs and legal and reputational risks
- Increasing concerns about the environmental impact of plastic bottles and other packaging materials could result in reduced demand for our beverage products and increased production and distribution costs
- Water scarcity and poor quality could negatively impact the Coca-Cola system’s costs and capacity
- Increased demand for food products, decreased agricultural productivity and increased regulation of ingredient sourcing due diligence may negatively affect our business
- Climate change and legal or regulatory responses thereto may have a long-term adverse impact on our business and results of operations
- Adverse weather conditions could reduce the demand for our products