Equifax (EFX)
Industrials · $21.9B market cap · SEC CIK 0000033185
ahead of 32% of the S&P 500 · #55 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Feb 2, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.15 in earnings per share.
52-week range $137.01 to $228.67. 18% below its 52-week high and 37% above its low.
The case for EFX
- Generated $1.1B of free cash flow in FY2025, 19% of revenue.
- Revenue growing 10.9% year over year.
- Return on equity of 17%.
- Gross margin of 55% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 29.5× earnings, where 8% a year of growth plus a 0.7% dividend would justify about 21×.
- Long-term debt of $4.1B against $181M of cash.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 21 points over the past year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 47 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 55 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 55 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 50 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 37 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +10.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $6.1B (+7%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 19% |
| Of profit | 172% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 55% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 19% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 10.6% → 10.9% → 11.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $181M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $4.1B |
| Net debt | $3.9B |
| Years to repay | 2.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Mixed: pricey on earnings, fair on cash
| P/E | 29.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 21× |
| P/FCF | 19.3× |
| Forward P/E | 19.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.5× |
At 29.5× earnings it trades above the 21× that 8% a year of growth plus a 0.7% dividend would justify. At 19.3× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Equifax's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $6.1B | $5.7B | $5.3B | $5.1B | $4.9B |
| Change on the year | +7% | +8% | +3% | +4% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.1B | $813M | $516M | $133M | $866M |
| Of revenue | 19% | 14% | 10% | 3% | 18% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 18.0% | 18.3% | 17.7% | 20.6% | 23.1% |
| Net margin | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 15.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $181M | $170M | $217M | $285M | $225M |
| Long-term debt | $4.1B | $4.3B | $4.7B | $4.8B | $4.5B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$3.9B | −$4.2B | −$4.5B | −$4.5B | −$4.2B |
What Equifax says it does
Overview Equifax Inc. is a global data, analytics and technology company. We provide information solutions for businesses, governments and consumers, and we provide human resources business process automation and outsourcing services for employers. We have a large and diversified group of clients, including financial institutions, corporations, government agencies and individuals. Our services are based on comprehensive databases of consumer and business information derived from numerous sources including credit, financial assets, telecommunications and utility payments, employment, income, educational history, criminal justice, healthcare professional licensure and sanctions, demographic and marketing data. We use advanced statistical techniques, artificial intelligence and machine learning, as well as proprietary software tools to analyze available data for the creation of customized insights, decision-making and process automation…
Risk factors EFX lists in its 10-K
- The failure to realize the anticipated benefits of our technology transformation could adversely impact our business and financial results
- The loss of access to credit, employment, financial and other data or intellectual property from external sources could harm our ability to provide our products and services
- Negative changes in general economic conditions, including interest rates, the level of inflation, unemployment rates, income, home prices, investment values and consumer confidence, could adversely affect us
- If our relationships with key customers and business partners are materially diminished or terminated, our business could suffer
- We may face risks associated with our use of certain artificial intelligence and machine learning models and systems
- The demand for some of our products and services may be negatively impacted to the extent the availability of free or less expensive consumer information increases
- If our government contracts are terminated, if we are suspended from government work, or if our ability to compete for new contracts is adversely affected, our business could suffer
- Our business has been and may continue to be negatively impacted by health epidemics, pandemics and similar outbreaks
- Our reputation and/or business could be negatively impacted by stakeholder responses to our responsible business priorities and commitments and our reporting of such matters
- Our use of cloud-based and other technologies that are outsourced to third parties could expose us to operational disruptions
- Our business will suffer if we are not able to retain and hire key personnel
- Economic, political and other risks associated with international sales and operations could adversely affect our results of operations
- The CFPB has supervisory authority over our U.S. business and supporting operations and may initiate enforcement actions with regard to our compliance with federal consumer financial laws
- Regulatory oversight of our contractual relationships with certain of our customers may adversely affect our business
- We are regularly involved in claims, suits, government investigations, enforcement actions and other proceedings that may result in adverse outcomes
- Third parties may claim that we are infringing on their intellectual property and we could suffer significant litigation or licensing expenses or be prevented from selling products or services
- Third parties may misappropriate or infringe our intellectual property and we may suffer competitive injury or expend significant resources enforcing our rights
- A downgrade in our credit ratings could increase our cost of borrowing under our credit facilities and have an adverse effect on our ability to access the capital markets
- Our retirement and post-retirement pension plans are subject to financial market risks that could adversely affect our future results of operations and cash flows