Expand Energy (EXE)

Energy · $20.3B market cap · SEC CIK 0000895126

Next reports on Feb 15, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.07 in earnings per share.

52-week range $83.25 to $126.62. 31% below its 52-week high and 6% above its low.

The case for EXE

• Revenue up 60.7% on the year.
• Generated $1.8B of free cash flow in FY2025, 15% of revenue.
• 20% of revenue drops through to net profit.
• Free cash flow of 9.1% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
• Pays a 3.8% dividend while you wait.
• Reasonably priced for its growth: 17.0× mid-cycle earnings, where 6%+ a year of growth plus a 3.8% dividend would justify about 23×.

The case against

• Down 23.6% over the past year.
• Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.96).
• Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 31% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
• Long-term debt of $5.0B against $616M of cash.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Energy companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 21 Energy companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Expand Energy's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Expand Energy says it does

Unless the context otherwise requires, references to “Expand Energy,” the “Company,” “us,” “we,” “our” and “ours” in this report are to Expand Energy Corporation together with its subsidiaries. Our principal executive offices are located at 6100 North Western Avenue, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73118, and our main telephone number at that location is (405) 848-8000. Our Business Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S., based on net daily production, and is focused on responsibly developing an abundant supply of natural gas, oil and NGL to expand energy access for all. Our operations are located in Louisiana and Texas in the Haynesville and Bossier Shales (“Haynesville”), in Pennsylvania in the Marcellus Shale (“Northeast Appalachia”) and in West Virginia and Ohio in the Marcellus and Utica Shales (“Southwest Appalachia”) and include working interests in approximately 6,600 gross natural gas and oil wells.…

Risk factors EXE lists in its 10-K

• Natural gas, oil and NGL prices fluctuate widely, and lower prices for an extended period of time are likely to have a material adverse effect on our business
• Conservation measures and technological advances could reduce demand for natural gas and oil
• Negative public perception regarding us or our industry could have an adverse effect on our operations
• “Increasing attention to sustainability matters and our ability to achieve and maintain sustainability certifications, goals and commitments may impact our business, financial results or stock price.”
• Risks related to potential acquisitions or dispositions may adversely affect our business
• If commodity prices fall or drilling efforts are unsuccessful, we may be required to record write-downs of the carrying value of our natural gas and oil properties
• Significant capital expenditures are required to replace our reserves and conduct our business
• If we are not able to replace reserves, we may not be able to sustain production
• The actual quantities of and future net revenues from our proved reserves may be less than our estimates
• Our development and exploratory drilling efforts and our well operations may not be profitable or achieve our targeted returns
• Certain of our undeveloped properties are subject to leases that will expire over the next several years unless production is established on units containing the acreage or the leases are renewed
• Natural gas and oil operations are uncertain and involve substantial costs and risks
• Our operations may be adversely affected by pipeline, trucking and gathering system capacity constraints and may be subject to interruptions that could adversely affect our cash flow
• The departure of key management personnel and the failure to attract and retain talent could adversely affect our operations
• Our business is subject to risks related to catastrophes, natural disasters, severe weather and human causes beyond our control, which may have a negative impact on our results of operations and financial condition
• A deterioration in general economic, political, business or industry conditions would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, liquidity and financial condition
• We may be unable to dispose of assets on attractive terms, and may be required to retain liabilities for certain matters
• Military and other armed conflicts, including terrorist activities, and related price volatility and geopolitical instability could materially and adversely affect our business and results of operations
• Regional epidemics or pandemics and related economic turmoil, including supply chain constraints, have affected, and could in the future adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
• Financial Risks Related to our Business
• We have significant capital needs, and our ability to access the capital and credit markets to raise capital on favorable terms is limited by industry conditions
• Changes to the ability of our customers to receive our products or meet their financial, performance and other obligations to us could adversely impact our business and financial condition
• We have a significant amount of indebtedness, which will limit our liquidity and financial flexibility. We may also incur additional indebtedness in the future
• Our ability to comply with the covenants and other restrictions in our financing agreements may be affected by events beyond our control, including prevailing economic and financial conditions
• Our common stockholders will be diluted if additional shares are issued
• Our ability to declare and pay dividends, and to repurchase common stock, is subject to limitations
• The trading price and volume of our common stock may be volatile, and you could lose a significant portion of your investment
• We are subject to extensive governmental regulation, which can change and could adversely impact our business
• Exploration and Production, Environmental, Health and Safety and Occupational Laws and
• Climate Change and Regulation of Methane and Other Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo
• Chevron U.S.A. Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc
• Costs to comply with environmental, health and safety regulations and initiatives can be significant
• Increasing attention to sustainability matters and our ability to achieve and maintain sustainability certifications, goals and commitments may impact our business, financial results or stock price
• The taxation of independent producers is subject to change, and changes in tax law could increase our cost of doing business
• Judicial decisions can affect our rights and obligations

Filings

Other Energy companies