FedEx (FDX)
Industrials · $74.7B market cap · SEC CIK 0001048911
ahead of 29% of the S&P 500 · #58 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Dec 16, 2026, with analysts expecting $5.30 in earnings per share.
52-week range $204.42 to $345.37. 7% below its 52-week high and 56% above its low.
The case for FDX
- Earnings per share up 97.3%.
- Gross margin of 60% absorbs cost shocks.
- Pays a modest 2.0% dividend.
- Up 51.0% over the past year.
- P/E of 9.4× is lower than 100% of Industrials companies.
- Price/sales of 0.9× is lower than 90% of Industrials companies.
The case against
- Revenue fell 10.1% year over year.
- Return on equity of 13% is lower than 85% of Industrials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 53 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 30 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 47 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 71 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 48 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, shrinking
| Last 12 months | −10.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +2.4% a year |
| FY2026 revenue | $94.7B (+8%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2026 free cash flow | $5.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 5% |
| Of profit | 115% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 60% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 6% |
| Net margin, FY25 → FY26 → now | 4.7% → 4.7% → 10.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $13.3B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $23.3B |
| Net debt | $10.0B |
| Years to repay | 2.6 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 9.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 11× |
| P/FCF | 14.6× |
| Forward P/E | 15.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.4× |
At 9.4× earnings it trades close to the 11× that 0% a year of growth plus a 2.0% dividend would justify. At 14.6× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from FedEx's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $94.7B | $87.9B | $87.7B | $90.2B | $93.5B |
| Change on the year | +8% | 0% | −3% | −4% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $5.1B | $3.0B | $3.1B | $2.7B | $3.1B |
| Of revenue | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $13.3B | $5.5B | $6.5B | $6.9B | $6.9B |
| Long-term debt | $23.3B | $19.2B | $19.8B | $19.8B | $19.8B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$10.0B | −$13.6B | −$13.3B | −$12.9B | −$12.9B |
What FedEx says it does
” and “ Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial Condition ” of this Annual Report for more information. There can be no assurance that the Federal Express and legacy FedEx Ground businesses and networks, which historically operated separately and independently, can successfully be fully integrated as planned. Additionally, it is possible that the business and network integration and optimization process could result in higher-than-currently-expected costs, less-than-expected savings, the loss of customers, the disruption of ongoing businesses, union organizing, litigation, legal disputes with service providers, governmental agency challenges, the loss of key employees or service providers, or other unexpected issues. It is also possible that the overall process will take longer than currently anticipated. Additionally, the following issues, among others, must be addressed in order to realize…
Risk factors FDX lists in its 10-K
- Shipping Management and Precision Tracking
- Customs Clearance, Customs Brokerage, and Freight Forwarding
- Equality, Opportunity, and Diversity
- Talent Acquisition, Engagement, and Turnover
- Decarbonize what’s possible: Prioritize emissions reductions through proven technology, efficiency, and fleet modernization
- Co-create with purpose: Collaborate across industry, government, and academia to accelerate innovation and close technology gaps
- Neutralize what’s left: Invest in measurable, durable carbon removal solutions for residual emissions starting in 2040
- Sustainable Aviation Fuels, Aircraft Fuel Conservation, and Fleet Modernization
- Vehicle Electrification and Alternative Fuels
- Facility Resiliency and Renewable Energy
- We are directly affected by the state of the global economy and geopolitical developments
- Our transportation businesses and their profitability are affected by the price and availability of jet and vehicle fuel, as well as our ability to collect fuel surcharges
- The failure to successfully execute our transformation initiatives in the expected time frame and at the expected cost may materially and adversely affect our future results
- We are self-insured for certain costs associated with our operations, and insurance and claims expenses could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, cash flows, and results of operations
- The transportation infrastructure continues to be a target of terrorist activities
- The effects of a widespread outbreak of an illness or any other communicable disease or public health crisis could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, cash flows, and financial condition
- Failure to successfully implement our business strategy and effectively respond to changes in market dynamics and customer preferences will cause our future financial results to suffer
- We may not be able to achieve our calendar 2029 financial performance targets
- We may not realize the anticipated benefits from the Spin-Off, which could harm our business
- The Spin-Off could result in substantial tax liability to us and our stockholders
- We depend on our strong reputation and the value of the FedEx brand
- Our businesses are capital intensive, and we must make capital decisions based upon projected volume levels
- We may not achieve the expected strategic or financial benefits relating to our InPost investment
- Labor-related disruptions and potential changes in labor laws may materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, cash flows, and results of operations
- Potential changes to pilot flight and duty time regulations could impair our operations and impose substantial costs on us
- We may be affected by global climate change or by legal, regulatory, or market responses to such change
- We may be unable to achieve or demonstrate progress on our goal of carbon neutrality for our global operations by calendar 2040
- Government regulation and enforcement are evolving and unfavorable changes could harm our business
- We could be subject to adverse changes in regulations and interpretations or challenges to our tax positions
- Our business is subject to complex and evolving United States and foreign laws and regulations regarding data protection and cybersecurity, which impose significant costs and regulatory risks that are likely to increase over time
- The regulatory environment for global aviation or other transportation rights may affect our operations and increase our operating costs
- We are also subject to other risks and uncertainties, including