Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
Industrials · $39.3B market cap · SEC CIK 0001035983
ahead of 87% of the S&P 500 · #4 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Feb 17, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $14.10 in earnings per share.
52-week range $841.66 to $2,074. 47% below its 52-week high and 31% above its low.
The case for FIX
- Revenue up 50.7% on the year.
- Cheap for its growth: 24.1× earnings, where 25%+ a year of growth would justify about 46×.
- Earns 55% back on shareholder equity.
- Holds more cash ($982M) than long-term debt ($139M).
- Earnings per share up 96.1%.
- Has compounded revenue at 26.1% a year over five years.
The case against
- Swings harder than the market (beta 1.69).
- The price trend is weak (33/100): +16.5% over a year, −33.5% over three months, 47% below its 52-week high.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 81 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 96 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 69 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 33 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 44 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +50.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +26.1% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $9.1B (+30%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.0B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 11% |
| Of profit | 101% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 26% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 17% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 7.4% → 11.2% → 13.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, more cash than debt
| Cash | $982M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $139M |
| Net cash | $843M |
| Years to repay | 0.1 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 24.1× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 46× |
| P/FCF | 38.1× |
| Forward P/E | 19.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 17.2× |
At 24.1× earnings it trades well below the 46× that 25%+ a year of growth would justify. At 38.1× free cash flow it trades below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Comfort Systems USA's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $9.1B | $7.0B | $5.2B | $4.1B | $3.1B |
| Change on the year | +30% | +35% | +26% | +35% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.0B | $738M | $545M | $253M | $158M |
| Of revenue | 11% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 5% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 24.1% | 21.0% | 19.0% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| Operating margin | 14.4% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Net margin | 11.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $982M | $550M | $205M | $57.2M | $58.8M |
| Long-term debt | $139M | $62.3M | $39.3M | $247M | $385M |
| Net cash (debt) | $843M | $488M | $166M | −$190M | −$326M |
What Comfort Systems USA says it does
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., a Delaware corporation, was established in 1997. We provide mechanical and electrical contracting services. Our mechanical segment principally includes heating, ventilation and air conditioning (“HVAC”), plumbing, piping and controls, as well as off-site construction, monitoring and fire protection. Our electrical segment includes installation and servicing of electrical systems. We build, install, maintain, repair and replace mechanical, electrical and plumbing (“MEP”) systems through our 50 operating units with 190 locations in 142 cities throughout the United States. We operate primarily in the commercial, industrial and institutional MEP markets and perform most of our services in manufacturing, healthcare, education, office, technology, retail and government facilities. Substantially all of our consolidated 2025 revenue was derived from commercial, industrial and institutional customers and multi-family…
Risk factors FIX lists in its 10-K
- Economic downturns in the markets in which we operate may materially and adversely affect our business because our business is dependent on levels of construction activity
- Because we bear the risk of cost overruns in most of our contracts, we may experience reduced profits or, in some cases, losses under these contracts if costs increase above our estimates
- Our backlog is subject to unexpected adjustments and cancellations, which means that amounts included in our backlog may not result in actual revenue or translate into profits
- The loss of one or a few customers could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
- Rising inflation, interest rate volatility and an economic recession or downturn may have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows
- Intense competition in our industry could reduce our market share and our profit
- Our recent and future acquisitions may not be successful
- Third parties contribute significantly to our completion of many projects and labor shortages or increased labor costs from third parties could adversely impact our results of operations
- Earnings for future periods may be impacted by impairment charges for goodwill and intangible assets
- Our use of the cost-to-cost input method of accounting could result in a reduction or reversal of previously recorded revenue or profits
- A significant portion of our business depends on our ability to provide surety bonds. Any difficulties in the financial and surety markets may adversely affect our bonding capacity and availability
- If we experience delays and/or defaults in customer payments, we could be unable to recover all expenditures
- Our business may be affected by the work environment
- We are susceptible to adverse weather conditions, which may harm our business and financial results
- Future climate change could adversely affect us
- Continuing worldwide political and economic uncertainties may adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows
- If we are unable to attract and retain qualified managers and employees, we will be unable to operate efficiently, which could reduce our profitability
- We are a decentralized company and place significant decision-making powers with our subsidiaries’ management, which presents certain risks
- If we do not effectively manage our backlog and the size and cost of our operations, our existing infrastructure may become either strained or over-burdensome, and we may be unable to increase or sustain revenue growth
- Information technology system failures, network disruptions or cybersecurity breaches could adversely affect our business
- Failure to remain in compliance with covenants under our credit agreement, service our indebtedness, or fund our other liquidity needs could adversely impact our business
- Our inability to properly utilize our workforce could have a negative impact on our profitability
- Actual and potential claims, lawsuits and proceedings could ultimately reduce our profitability and liquidity and weaken our financial condition
- Past, current and future environmental, social, governance, sustainability, safety and health regulations could impose significant additional costs on us that could reduce our profits
- Unsatisfactory safety performance may subject us to penalties, affect customer relationships, result in higher operating costs, negatively impact employee morale and result in higher employee turnover
- Changes in U.S. foreign relations, in particular foreign trade policies could lead to the imposition of additional trade barriers and tariffs
- Tax matters, including changes in corporate tax laws and disagreements with taxing authorities, could impact our results of operations and financial condition
- Future sales of our common stock may depress our stock price
- Our charter contains certain anti-takeover provisions that may inhibit or delay a change in control
- Force majeure events, including natural disasters, outbreaks of infectious disease, and terrorists’ actions, could negatively impact our business, which may affect our financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows
- Deliberate, malicious acts, including terrorism and sabotage, could damage our facilities, disrupt our operations or injure employees, contractors, customers or the public and result in liability to us
- We are required to assess and report on our internal control over financial reporting each year. Findings of inadequate internal control could reduce investor confidence in the reliability of our financial information
- Failure or circumvention of our disclosure controls and procedures or internal control over financial reporting could seriously harm our business, financial condition, results of operation, and cash flows
- Changes in accounting rules and regulations could adversely affect our business, reported financial results and/or our results of operations, cash flows, and liquidity