Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Industrials · $72.9B market cap · SEC CIK 0000702165
ahead of 25% of the S&P 500 · #61 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 27, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $3.32 in earnings per share.
52-week range $277.80 to $358.60. 9% below its 52-week high and 18% above its low.
The case for NSC
- Generated $2.2B of free cash flow in FY2025, 18% of revenue.
- 21% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Pays a 2.5% dividend while you wait.
- Return on equity of 17%.
The case against
- Priced at 27.2× earnings while earnings per share are shrinking (−9.1%).
- Earnings per share fell 9.1%.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.90).
- Value is weak (38/100): 27.2× earnings against a fair 22× for its growth, 5.6× sales, 3.0% free-cash yield.
- Long-term debt of $16.5B against $1.5B of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 38 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 34 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 58 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 57 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 49 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +6.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.2B (0%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.2B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 18% |
| Of profit | 75% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 48% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 32% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 21.6% → 23.6% → 20.7% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $1.5B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $16.5B |
| Net debt | $14.9B |
| Years to repay | 3.8 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 27.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 22× |
| P/FCF | 33.8× |
| Forward P/E | 24.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.9× |
At 27.2× earnings it trades above the 22× that 7% a year of growth plus a 2.5% dividend would justify. At 33.8× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Norfolk Southern's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $12.2B | $12.1B | $12.2B | $12.7B | $11.1B |
| Change on the year | 0% | 0% | −5% | +14% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.2B | $1.7B | $852M | $2.3B | $2.8B |
| Of revenue | 18% | 14% | 7% | 18% | 25% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 35.8% | 33.6% | 23.5% | 37.7% | 39.9% |
| Net margin | 23.6% | 21.6% | 15.0% | 25.7% | 27.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $456M | $839M |
| Long-term debt | $16.5B | $16.7B | $17.2B | $14.5B | $13.3B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$14.9B | −$15.0B | −$15.6B | −$14.0B | −$12.4B |
What Norfolk Southern says it does
and Item 2. Properties GENERAL – Norfolk Southern Corporation (Norfolk Southern) is an Atlanta, Georgia-based company that owns a major freight railroad, Norfolk Southern Railway Company (NSR). We were incorporated on July 23, 1980, under the laws of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Our common stock (Common Stock) is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol “NSC.” Unless indicated otherwise, Norfolk Southern Corporation and its subsidiaries, including NSR, are referred to collectively as NS, we, us, and our. We are primarily engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States (U.S.). We also transport overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. We offer the most extensive intermodal network in the eastern half of the U.S. We make…
Risk factors NSC lists in its 10-K
- The Mergers are subject to conditions, some or all of which may not be satisfied or completed on a timely basis, if at all. Failure to complete the Mergers could have material adverse effects on the Company
- The Company is subject to business uncertainties and contractual restrictions while the Mergers are pending, which could adversely affect the Company’s business and operations
- Uncertainties associated with the Mergers may cause a loss of management personnel and other key employees, and the Company may have difficulty attracting and motivating management personnel and other key employees
- New or additional governmental regulation and/or operational changes resulting from or related to the Incident or the Incident Proceedings may negatively impact us, our customers, the rail industry, or the markets we serve
- Governmental legislation, regulation, and Executive Orders over commercial, operational, tax, safety, security, or cybersecurity matters could negatively affect us, our customers, the rail industry, or the markets we serve
- Federal and state environmental laws and regulations could negatively impact us and our operations
- U.S. international trade relationships may adversely impact our customers, our industry, and our business
- A significant adverse event on our network may significantly impede our ability to operate and serve our customers
- If we are unable to successfully execute on our strategic initiatives, our business and future results of operations may suffer
- As a common carrier by rail, we must offer to transport hazardous materials, which exposes us to significant costs and claims
- We face competition from other transportation providers
- Capacity constraints could negatively impact our service and operating efficiency
- Constraints on the supply chain or the operations of carriers with which we interchange may adversely affect our operations
- We may be negatively affected by terrorism or war
- We may be negatively affected by supply constraints resulting from disruptions in our fuel markets or supplier markets
- We may be negatively affected by energy prices
- Pandemics, epidemics, or endemic diseases could further negatively impact us, our customers, our supply chain, and our operations
- Our business is capital intensive, and we must make capital decisions based upon expectations of future usage of our assets
- A significant cybersecurity incident or other disruption to our technology infrastructure resulting from internal and external threats could disrupt our business operations
- Our business may be seriously harmed if we fail to develop, implement, maintain, upgrade, enhance, protect and integrate our information or operational technology systems
- We may be subject to various claims and lawsuits that could result in significant expenditures
- Failure to attract, retain, and transition key executive officers, or skilled professional or technical employees could adversely impact our business and operations
- Severe weather and disasters have caused, and could again cause, significant business interruptions and expenditures
- We may be negatively impacted by changes in general economic conditions
- The state of capital markets could adversely affect our liquidity