Paccar (PCAR)
Industrials · $55.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0000075362
ahead of 25% of the S&P 500 · #63 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 25, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.71 in earnings per share.
52-week range $93.86 to $139.24. 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its low.
The case for PCAR
- Pays a modest 1.2% dividend.
- Free-cash-flow yield of 6.7% is higher than 92% of Industrials companies.
The case against
- Revenue was flat on the year (−1.5%).
- Profitability is weak (39/100): return on equity 14%, net margin 9.5%, gross margin 20%, 155% of profit turned to cash.
- The price trend is weak (34/100): +7.1% over a year, −19.4% over three months, 24% below its 52-week high.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 64 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 44 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 39 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 34 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 50 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, flat
| Last 12 months | −1.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $28.4B (−16%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $3.7B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 13% |
| Of profit | 155% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 20% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 13% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 12.4% → 8.4% → 9.5% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | n/a |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
| Debt / equity | 0.71× |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 20.0× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 20× |
| P/FCF | 15.0× |
| Forward P/E | 15.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.4× |
At 20.0× earnings it trades close to the 20× that 7% a year of growth plus a 1.2% dividend would justify. At 15.0× free cash flow it trades below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Paccar's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $28.4B | $33.7B | $35.1B | $28.8B | $23.5B |
| Change on the year | −16% | −4% | +22% | +23% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $3.7B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $1.7B | $601M |
| Of revenue | 13% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 3% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 8.4% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 7.9% |
Filings
The text of this 10-K could not be read automatically. The original is linked below.