Republic Services (RSG)
Industrials · $75.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0001060391
ahead of 61% of the S&P 500 · #32 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Feb 15, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.79 in earnings per share.
52-week range $196.41 to $254.39. 3% below its 52-week high and 26% above its low.
The case for RSG
- Has compounded revenue at 10.3% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 18%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.32).
- Pays a modest 1.3% dividend.
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 33.8× earnings, where 11% a year of growth plus a 1.3% dividend would justify about 26×.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.75).
- Long-term debt of $13.7B against $76.0M of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 43 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 60 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 53 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 79 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 66 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +4.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +10.3% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $19.0B (+3%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.4B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 13% |
| Of profit | 113% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 42% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 20% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 11.1% → 11.2% → 12.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $76.0M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $13.7B |
| Net debt | $13.6B |
| Years to repay | 3.2 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Mixed: pricey on earnings, fair on cash
| P/E | 33.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 26× |
| P/FCF | 31.2× |
| Forward P/E | 30.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.7× |
At 33.8× earnings it trades above the 26× that 11% a year of growth plus a 1.3% dividend would justify. At 31.2× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Republic Services's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $19.0B | $18.4B | $17.3B | $15.6B | $13.3B |
| Change on the year | +3% | +7% | +10% | +17% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.4B | $2.1B | $2.0B | $1.7B | $1.5B |
| Of revenue | 13% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 15.6% |
| Net margin | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $76.0M | $74.0M | $140M | $143M | $29.0M |
| Long-term debt | $13.7B | $12.8B | $12.8B | $11.9B | $9.7B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$13.6B | −$12.8B | −$12.7B | −$11.8B | −$9.6B |
What Republic Services says it does
Overview Republic Services is one of the largest providers of environmental services in North America, as measured by revenue. We operate across the United States and Canada through 377 collection operations, 255 transfer stations, 79 recycling centers, 207 active landfills, 2 treatment, recovery and disposal facilities, 24 treatment, storage and disposal facilities (TSDF), 5 salt water disposal wells, 15 deep injection wells, 9 industrial wastewater treatment facilities, and 2 polymer centers. We are engaged in 84 landfill gas-to-energy and other renewable energy projects and had post-closure responsibility for 124 closed landfills. We believe the total addressable United States and Canada environmental services market in which we operate generates approximately $163 billion of annual revenue, which includes the $110 billion recycling and waste industry, $37 billion of the broader environmental solutions industry, and $16 billion in…
Risk factors RSG lists in its 10-K
- Disclosure Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
- Increases in the cost of fuel or petrochemicals increase our operating expenses, and we may not be able to recover such cost increases from our customers
- Fluctuations in prices and demand for recycled commodities that we sell to customers may adversely affect our consolidated financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
- Acute and chronic weather events, including those brought about by climate change, may adversely impact our operations and increase the costs of collection, transfer, disposal and other environmental services we provide
- We may be unable to obtain or maintain required permits or to expand existing permitted capacity of our facilities, which could decrease our revenue and increase our costs
- If we do not appropriately estimate landfill capping, closure, post-closure and remediation costs, our consolidated financial condition and results of operations may be adversely affected
- Alternatives to landfill disposal, and increasing customer preferences for these alternatives, could reduce our disposal volumes and cause our revenues and operating results to decline
- We could incur charges to income, which could be material, if landfill and transfer station site development projects or expansion projects are not completed, or certain other events occur
- The business and assets we operate expose us to safety, operational and other risks, including the risk of personal injury to our employees or third parties
- We are periodically subject to work stoppages and other workforce effects, which increases our operating costs and disrupts our operations
- We may not be able to achieve reduction of our greenhouse gas emissions and our other sustainability goals
- We are subject to costly environmental and flow-control regulations and requirements that may affect our operating margins, restrict our operations and subject us to additional liability
- Regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and other governmental regulations could impose costs on our operations, the magnitude of which is difficult to estimate
- Business – Regulation – Federal Regulation – The Clean Air Act
- We may incur losses from liabilities that are not covered by our insurance. Changes in insurance markets also may impact our financial results
- Despite our efforts, we may incur additional liability under environmental laws in excess of amounts presently known and accrued
- Currently pending or future litigation or governmental proceedings could result in material adverse consequences, including judgments or settlements
- to federal renewable fuel policies could affect our financial performance in that sector as a renewable fuel producer and impact our projected future investments
- We have substantial indebtedness, which may limit our financial flexibility
- We may be unable to maintain our credit ratings or execute our financial strategy
- Weakness in the United States economy may expose us to credit risk for amounts due from governmental entities, large national accounts, industrial customers and others
- Our consolidated financial statements are based on estimates and assumptions that may differ from actual results
- The liabilities we record based on such estimates and assumptions may not be adequate to cover the costs we ultimately will face
- Our obligation to fund multiemployer pension plans to which we contribute, or our withdrawal from such plans, may have an adverse effect on us
- We may be unable to manage our growth effectively
- We may be unable to execute our acquisition growth strategy
- Businesses we acquire may have undisclosed liabilities
- Our strategy includes an increasing dependence on technology, including the use of artificial intelligence (AI), in our operations. If any of our key technology fails, our business could be adversely affected
- A significant cybersecurity incident could negatively impact our business and our relationships with employees, customers and vendors and expose us to increased liability
- Price increases may not be adequate to offset the effect of increased costs and may cause us to lose volume and customers
- The introduction of new accounting rules, laws or regulations could adversely impact our reported results of operations
- Weakened or volatile economic conditions have and may continue to harm our industry, business and results of operations