Constellation Brands (STZ)
Consumer Staples · $24.6B market cap · SEC CIK 0000016918
ahead of 64% of the S&P 500 · #12 of 36 in Consumer Staples
Next reports on Jan 5, 2027, before the open, with analysts expecting $2.75 in earnings per share.
52-week range $110.60 to $168.60. 14% below its 52-week high and 32% above its low.
The case for STZ
- Generated $1.8B of free cash flow in FY2026, 18% of revenue.
- 21% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Free cash flow of 7.3% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Earnings per share up 62.7%.
- Return on equity of 24%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.36).
The case against
- Revenue slipped 4.3% on the year.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 1.00).
- Long-term debt of $9.7B against $102M of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Staples companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 55 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 47 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 76 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 65 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 54 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 36 Consumer Staples companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, shrinking
| Last 12 months | −4.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +1.2% a year |
| FY2026 revenue | $9.8B (−11%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2026 free cash flow | $1.8B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 18% |
| Of profit | 106% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 53% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 30% |
| Net margin, FY25 → FY26 → now | −0.7% → 17.3% → 20.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $102M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $9.7B |
| Net debt | $9.6B |
| Years to repay | 3.6 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 12.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 10× |
| P/FCF | 13.7× |
| Forward P/E | 11.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.9× |
At 12.8× earnings it trades above the 10× that 0% a year of growth plus a 1.5% dividend would justify. At 13.7× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Constellation Brands's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $9.8B | $11.0B | $10.7B | $10.2B | $9.5B |
| Change on the year | −11% | +2% | +5% | +7% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Of revenue | 18% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 18% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 48.3% | 48.5% | 46.8% | 46.9% | 49.4% |
| Operating margin | 27.9% | 3.2% | 29.6% | 27.9% | 24.5% |
| Net margin | 17.3% | −0.7% | 16.1% | −0.7% | −0.4% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $102M | $68.1M | $152M | $134M | $199M |
| Long-term debt | $9.7B | $9.3B | $10.7B | $11.3B | $9.5B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$9.6B | −$9.2B | −$10.5B | −$11.2B | −$9.3B |
What Constellation Brands says it does
Table of Contents PART I ITEM 1. BUSINESS INTRODUCTION We are an international producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy with powerful, consumer-connected, high-quality brands like Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, Pacifico, Victoria, Kim Crawford, Ruffino, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi Winery, Mi CAMPO, and High West. In the U.S., we are one of the top dollar share gainers among beverage alcohol suppliers. We are also the second-largest beer company and have the #1 beer brand, Modelo Especial, in dollar sales in the U.S. We continued to strengthen our leadership position in the U.S. beer market as the #1 dollar share gainer in the overall U.S. beer market, and the #2 dollar share gainer in the high-end. Within wine and spirits, we have implemented a multi-year strategy that repositioned this business to a portfolio of exclusively higher-end brands that we…
Risk factors STZ lists in its 10-K
- Potential declines in the consumption of products we sell; dependence on sales of our beer brands
- Constellation Brands, Inc. FY 2026 Form 10-K
- President and Chief Executive Officer transition
- Acquisition, divestiture, investment, and NPD strategies and activities
- Dependence upon trademarks and proprietary rights; failure to protect our intellectual property rights
- Economic and other uncertainties associated with our international operations, including tariffs
- Supply of quality water, agricultural, and other raw materials, certain raw and packaging materials purchased under supply contracts; supply chain disruptions and other factors; limited group of certain suppliers
- Reliance upon complex information systems and third-party global networks; cybersecurity; AI
- Dependence on limited facilities for production of our beer brands; impacts from Brewery Projects
- Operational disruptions or catastrophic loss to breweries, wineries, other facilities, or distribution systems
- Severe weather and natural or man-made disasters; climate change; environmental sustainability and CSR-related regulatory compliance; failure to meet environmental sustainability and CSR commitments and aspirations
- Success of cost savings, restructuring, and efficiency initiatives
- Reliance on wholesale distributors, major retailers, and government agencies
- Food safety and quality, including contamination and product degradation from diseases, pests, and weather and other conditions
- Outbreaks of communicable infections or diseases, pandemics, or other widespread public health crises impacting our consumers, Customers, employees, and/or suppliers
- Labor activities could increase our costs
- Indebtedness, credit ratings, interest rate fluctuations, and credit market disruptions or volatility
- International operations, worldwide and regional economic trends and financial market conditions, geopolitical uncertainty, or other governmental rules and regulations
- Class action or other litigation, including relating to alleged securities law violations, abuse or misuse of our products, product liability, marketing or sales practices, or other matters
- Intangible assets, such as goodwill and trademarks
- Changes to tax laws; fluctuations in our effective tax rate; accounting for tax positions; resolution of tax disputes; changes to accounting standards, elections, assertions, or policies; global minimum tax
- Cash dividends and share repurchases are subject to a number of uncertainties and may affect the price of our common stock
- Sands Family Stockholder Class A Stock ownership and Board of Directors nomination rights
- Choice-of-forum provision in our Amended and Restated By-laws regarding certain stockholder litigation