Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)

Energy · $19.3B market cap · SEC CIK 0001811074

Next reports on Feb 16, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.64 in earnings per share.

52-week range $265.31 to $547.20. 50% below its 52-week high and 4% above its low.

The case for TPL

• Revenue up 25.3% on the year.
• Earns 36% back on shareholder equity.
• 61% of revenue drops through to net profit.
• Has compounded revenue at 21.4% a year over five years.
• Carries essentially no debt.
• Gross margin of 94% absorbs cost shocks.

The case against

• Expensive for its growth: 35.4× mid-cycle earnings, where 6%+ a year of growth plus a 0.8% dividend would justify about 18×.
• Priced at 20.0× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
• Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 50% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
• Trailed the S&P 500 by 27 points over the past year.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Energy companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Capital spending is missing from its filings, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow stands in for the cash test, against a stricter bar.
• Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 21 Energy companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Texas Pacific Land Corporation's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Texas Pacific Land Corporation says it does

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (which, together with its subsidiaries as the context requires, may be referred to as “TPL,” the “Company,” “our,” “we,” or “us”) is a Delaware Corporation and one of the largest landowners in the State of Texas with approximately 882,000 surface acres of land, principally concentrated in the Permian Basin. Additionally, we own a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (“NPRI”) under approximately 85,000 acres of land, a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land, and approximately 33,000 additional net royalty acres (normalized to 1/8th) (“NRA”), for a collective total of approximately 224,000 NRA, principally concentrated in the Permian Basin. The Company was originally organized as Texas Pacific Land Trust (the “Trust”) under a Declaration of Trust, dated February 1, 1888 (the “Declaration of Trust”), to receive and hold title to extensive tracts of land in the State…

Risk factors TPL lists in its 10-K

• Our oil and gas royalties are dependent upon the market prices of oil and gas which fluctuate
• We are not an oil and gas producer. Our revenues from oil and gas royalties are subject to the actions of others
• The loss of key members of our management team or difficulty attracting and retaining experienced technical personnel could reduce our competitiveness and prospects for future success
• Demand for TPWR’s products and services is substantially dependent on the levels of expenditures by our customers
• We face the risks of doing business in a new and rapidly evolving market for TPWR and may not be able to
• address such risks and achieve acceptable levels of success or profits
• The impact of government regulation on TPWR could adversely affect our business
• Our produced water desalination project creates risks related to invested capital, environmental exposure and our reputation
• Our revenues from the sale of land are subject to substantial fluctuation. Land sales are subject to many factors that are beyond our control
• Our Credit Facility may limit our operating flexibility or otherwise adversely affect our business
• We may make minority investments, engage in joint ventures or make other strategic alliances with third parties that subject us to risks and uncertainties outside of our control
• The market price of our Common Stock may fluctuate significantly
• We may not continue to pay dividends or to pay dividends at the same rate as previously paid
• We will evaluate whether to repurchase our outstanding Common Stock in the future and we cannot guarantee the timing or amount of share repurchases, if any
• The issuance of additional Common Stock in the future would dilute other stockholders
• State law and anti-takeover provisions could enable our Board to resist a takeover attempt by a third party and limit the power of our stockholders
• Our business and financial results could be disrupted by natural or human causes beyond our control
• Our business and financial results are subject to major trends in our industry, such as decarbonization, and may be adversely affected by future developments that are out of our control
• Our business could be negatively affected as a result of the actions of activists

Filings

Other Energy companies